Hodeiby: Your best friend hates you

Your best friend hates you: prolific Muslim Brother Ibrahim Houdeiby’s latest article, perhaps his best one yet, on Egypt’s promotion of anti-Americanism and how it relates to the “engage the MB” debate. He concludes with an interesting argument:

In the era of “neo-terrorism,” or micro-terrorist groups, this increasing hostility only means a threat to American national security. With the rapid boom in technology and communication, it takes no more than a connection to the Internet and a few dollars to develop a bomb and threaten the security and lives of innocents anywhere. Therefore, relying on the strong relations with Egypt’s dictator as a substitute for building bridges of understanding with the Egyptian people is a strategic mistake.

The current and next American administrations have one of two possible alternatives. The first is to continue supporting a regime that complies with all their demands yet spreads embedded anti-Americanism on the domestic level, and suffer the possible consequences of that, which will be devastating to everyone. The second alternative is to support real democracy in Egypt, and realize that the outcome would be a government that would not necessarily serve America’s short term interests in the region. The outcome will be a government that pursues Egypt’s interests, and manifests the people’s will, yet does not fuel widespread inherent hostility towards the United States.

On the other hand, the MB is not exactly known for its pro-US rhetoric either, is it? So the message is, if you encourage democracy in Egypt, even if it will inevitably strengthen the MB (at least initially), Egypt will continue to play more or less within the limits imposed by American regional hegemony. And presumably refrain from doing things like sending soldiers to defend Lebanon from Israel. Or am I reading it wrong?

WaPo on MB Crackdown

Cairo Moving More Aggressively To Cripple Muslim Brotherhood:

CAIRO — After imprisoning or prodding into exile Egypt’s leading secular opposition activists, the government is using detentions and legal changes to neutralize the country’s last surviving major political movement, the Muslim Brotherhood.

Brotherhood leaders and rights groups contend the government is clearing the stage of opponents in politics, civil society and the news media ahead of the end of the 26-year rule of President Hosni Mubarak, who is 79. Egyptians widely expect the transition to be tense and that Mubarak’s son Gamal will be a top contender.

“Tyranny has reached unprecedented limits from any previous regime,” said Mohammed Mahdi Akef, the supreme guide, or highest leader, of the Brotherhood, which the government has outlawed for decades but allowed to operate within narrow limits. “This is insane tyranny.”

Egyptian officials point to the group’s high level of organization and violent past, and insist it remains the most dangerous force in Egypt. “The Muslim Brotherhood represents the framework for future violence,” said Mohamed Abdel-Fattah Omar, a lawmaker from the ruling party and a former head of the state security apparatus.

The article continues to link the crackdown on the MB with a general wave of repression (the press, civil society, etc.) linked to succession. This theory, frequently aired in the local press, is that the regime is moving to ensure that all vehicles of dissent are unable to organize when the time for succession comes, presumably in the next 24 months. But that would mean that there is a plan in motion for succession, and nothing could be less certain (even if some candidates may be maneuvering). Maybe it’s not that the crackdown is in preparation for succession, but rather that the uncertainty over succession has become such an existential problem (in the philosophical sense, not life-or-death sense) that it pushing various political actors (opposition parties, the MB, the press, civil society, etc.) to assert themselves and make a push on long-held beliefs and positions.

Or maybe things are so opaque it’s hard to make heads of tails of regime strategy, if strategy there is.

On the UN Human Rights Council

The Israeli government and President Bush are right about the UN Human Rights Council: it does not fairly spread blame for human rights abuses. But the problem is not that it blames Israel too much — it does quite an appropriate job in that. It’s just that it should also focus on other countries, including members such as Egypt (local human rights organizations even campaigned against their country’s membership here!) and of course places like Sudan, Iran, China, North Korea or Myanmar.

But everything it says about Israel holds, and it doesn’t mean it should change its mind about regularly reviewing human rights abuses in Israel and the Palestinian Occupied Territories. I can’t say I like the Council’s composition much, but then again I don’t like the way the Security Council works either — and that’s much, much more important.

[I bring this up because a commenter left the link above.]

‘Polygamy’ soaps irk feminists in Egypt

‘Polygamy’ soaps irk feminists in Egypt:

Cairo: Egyptian pro-women groups are disappointed that several TV serials being shown on local and Arab TV feature polygamy as a recurrent theme.

“I have been working in the field of women’s welfare for more than 20 years and I have never seen so many polygamists in Egypt as portrayed in TV dramas,” said Eman Beibers, the chairperson of the Association for the Development and Enhancement of Women.

At least seven television serials with polygamists are on the air waves every night of Ramadan – when viewing rates in the Arab world peak.

“These shows by no means reflect real life in Egypt where many young people cannot afford the spiralling cost of marriage,” Beibers told Gulf News.

My TV isn’t working well so I haven’t had a chance to watch this year’s soaps. But Beibers does seem to have a point about TV’s obsession with polygamists…

El Gusto: Algerian chaabi masters regroup

Damon Albarn (of Britpop bands Blur and Gorillaz fame) is producing a kind of Buena Vista Social Club album, instead of Cuban masters you have Algerian chaabi masters: Once more, with El Gusto.

Luc Cherki is a big man. Carrying his guitar, he approaches the microphone with the swagger of Johnny Cash and sings a folk ballad about the dispossessed worthy of the Man in Black that elicits whoops of recognition from his audience. But this is Marseilles, not San Quentin, and Cherki is French. His song, Je suis un pied-noir, tells of having to leave Algeria for France 45 years ago, thus becoming an emigré in his own country.

Accompanying him are the El Gusto Orchestra, veterans of Algerian music’s postwar golden age, when the sound of chaabi united the streets. When the war of independence (1954-62) tore apart the French colony it ripped the heart out of the musical community. For many of those onstage in Marseilles El Gusto is the first time they have seen each other in 45 years.

Now the old friends’ schedules includes a film, a tour by the orchestra, which reaches the Barbican in London on October 10 as part of its annual Ramadan Nights season, and an album, produced by Damon Albarn and released on his label, Honest Jons. “I didn’t know chaabi before I became involved,” Albarn admits. “But after I got the call asking me to contribute to this project I made sure I was well-versed before I got here. Then all I needed to do was to put microphones in the right places and try to capture the rawness of the music. I just told them they were the maestros and let them get on with it.”

Concerts in London and Paris for those lucky enough to make it, and the album of the recording will come out on October 15. Also see this story in Le Monde.

Saudi to create oil protection security service

From Le Figaro, an article on how Saudi Arabia is creating a new security service specifically dedicated to protecting petroleum installations. Beyond threat perceptions about attacks on these centers, there is also the factor that this will create yet another service, exclusively under the control of Minister of Interior Prince Nayef and his son — with a rumored budget of $5 billion and staff of 35,000.

L’Arabie crée une force de protection des sites pétroliers:

POUR EMPÊCHER un attentat terroriste contre ses installations pétrolières, Riyad vient de décider la création d’une force de sécurité spécialisée, d’environ 35 000 hommes. Jusqu’à présent, la protection des 80 champs pétroliers et gaziers, ainsi que des 11 000 kilomètres d’oléoducs du premier exportateur d’or noir au monde était répartie entre une multitude de services (sécurité publique, forces spéciales, Garde nationale, etc.), soit au total 15 000 hommes.

« Compte tenu de la persistance des menaces terroristes ou des tensions avec l’Iran, les Saoudiens se sont rendu compte que la solution du détachement des personnels et des matériels n’était pas satisfaisante », explique un diplomate occidental à Riyad. Annoncée récemment par le ministre de l’Intérieur, le prince Nayef, à la Shoura (une assemblée dont les membres sont désignés par le régime), cette décision n’a pas encore été rendue publique.

La protection des sites pétroliers représente un important enjeu de pouvoir entre les différents clans de la direction saoudienne. La Garde nationale, toujours commandée par le roi Abdallah, gardera certaines prérogatives. Mais le dossier et ses investissements induits – on parle de 5 milliards de dollars – seront gérés directement par Nayef et son fils, les principaux responsables de la lutte antiterroriste dans un royaume durement frappé par al-Qaida depuis 2003.

This will mean more investment into arms purchases and other security technology, much to Western suppliers’ delight.

Eissa no longer to be tried in Emergency Court

Following up on this post from a few days ago, the office of the General Prosecutor has decided not to try al-Destour editor Ibrahim Eissa in a State Security Emergency Court:

CAIRO, Egypt: Egypt’s prosecutor general reversed a decision to send an outspoken tabloid newspaper editor who questioned President Hosni Mubarak’s health to the country’s emergency court of no appeal, a judiciary official said Friday.

Al-Dustour editor Ibrahim Eissa will instead face a regular criminal court where appeals are possible on Oct. 1, said the judicial official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press. He did not elaborate on the reasons why the prosecutor general reversed the decision.

One can only come to the conclusion that pursuing the trial in an Emergency court would be unnecessarily hurtful to what remains of Egypt’s image. The decision must have come from up high.