Iraq’s elections

Here’s a few notes on some recent stories that have come out about Iraq’s elections following the recent confusion about whether they might take place in January as planned, later, not at all, or only in the half of the country that is not under the control of insurgents.

  • Time reveals, probably for the first time but in a disappointingly short article, that it took a House democrat to scuttle a CIA plan to covertly provide funds to pro-US candidates in Iraq:

    U.S. officials tell TIME that the Bush team ran into trouble with another plan involving those elections — a secret “finding” written several months ago proposing a covert CIA operation to aid candidates favored by Washington. A source says the idea was to help such candidates — whose opponents might be receiving covert backing from other countries, like Iran — but not necessarily to go so far as to rig the elections. But lawmakers from both parties raised questions about the idea when it was sent to Capitol Hill. In particular, House minority leader Nancy Pelosi “came unglued” when she learned about what a source described as a plan for “the CIA to put an operation in place to affect the outcome of the elections.” Pelosi had strong words with National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice in a phone call about the issue.

    Juan Cole has a good analysis of the situation, and I personally can’t wait to see coverage of this in the Arab press. This kind of stuff confirms everything people in this part of the world believe already, and I only hope that armchair political scientists (or even the real ones) will stop pretending that this administration cares about democracy. The fact is, the same people who stridently called for war in the name of reforming the region now only want to go so far. The neo-cons aren’t as ideologically committed to democracy as everyone things, which is kind of obvious if you believe the whole Leo Strauss legacy and their belief in enlightened elitism.

    I like the straight-forward by Condoleeza Rice’s spokesman though:

    “I cannot in any way comment on classified matters, the existence or nonexistence of findings.”

    All this being said, you can’t deny that the money Iran is pumping into groups like SCIRI and into the elections is a problem. It might be something one could address through diplomacy, if that kind of thing was practiced anymore. Mind you it’s not unusual in democracies for foreign countries to have influence over elections, it it?

  • The cunning plan to counter this is to have an overt election financing scheme, which will be open to all parties:

    The Bush administration is exploring several steps aimed at containing Tehran’s growing influence in Iraq, according to U.S. officials, who say a split between the Pentagon and the State Department has paralyzed the administration’s ability to craft a long-term policy on Iran for three years.

    As one measure, the United States has earmarked $40 million to help Iraq’s political parties mobilize — and, subtly, to counter Iran’s support for its allies in an emerging race to influence the outcome, U.S. officials said.

    With the election in Iraq four months away, the administration has grown increasingly alarmed about the resources Tehran is pouring into Iraq’s already well-organized Shiite religious parties, which give them an edge over struggling moderate and nonsectarian parties, the officials said.

    Over the past year, Iran has provided tens of millions of dollars and other material support to a range of Iraqi parties, including the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the Islamic Dawa Party and rebel cleric Moqtada Sadr’s Mahdi Army, U.S. officials say. The U.S. funds will in theory be available to all Iraqi parties, although the U.S. goal is to bolster the prospects of secular groups — on the premise that Iranian-backed parties are unlikely to turn to America for training or money, U.S. officials said.

  • Of course no one’s taken money from both the US and Iran before.

  • Hold on a minute. There is a friend of Iran who’s taken quite a lot of money from his friends in Washington. And he’s back in the game: Ahmed Chalabi has been acquitted from the evidence against him, who were found by an Iraqi judge to be without merit:

    The judge, Zuhair al-Maliky, said in a telephone interview that he decided about a week and a half ago that “the evidence was not enough to bring the case to trial.” If more evidence emerges, he said, the case will be reopened.

    The move appears to be a minor victory by Mr. Chalabi over the interim government led by Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a longtime rival of Mr. Chalabi’s. The government announced the counterfeiting charge against Mr. Chalabi in August, while he was on vacation at a summer home in Iran. At the time, it appeared to many that the charge was a move by Mr. Allawi to dissuade him from re-entering the country.

    But Mr. Chalabi did return to Iraq and proceeded to denounce the government, meeting with reporters to proclaim his innocence and vow to return to political life. He aligned himself with Shiite religious leaders here, recasting himself as a champion of Shiite rights.

    It was the latest twist in Mr. Chalabi’s fortunes since he returned to Iraq in the spring of 2003 after decades in exile. Once favored by the Bush administration to be Iraq’s first leader after Saddam Hussein’s fall, he has spent the last few months fighting for his political future.

    Well he probably has his financing sorted out by now, as well as the advantage of not being seen as a US puppet like Allawi. Ahmed Chalabi may be one of the early twenty-first century’s great political survivor, you have to hand it to him.

  • Kevin Drum reminds us that there recently was an election in Iraq for four vice-chairmen of the Iraqi National Accord and that the candidates who were elected were, in order, a Shia fundamentalist, a communist, a member of interim prime minister Allawi’s group, and a sunni fundamentalist. He asks if this is a taste of things to come. It’s been little-reported and there are some good links to follow up, so read it.
  • Even King Abdullah is getting lukewarm about elections (mind you, he’s always felt that way about elections at home):

    “It seems impossible to me to organize indisputable elections in the chaos we see today,” the king told French daily Le Figaro before meeting President Jacques Chirac in Paris.

    “If the elections take place in the current disorder, the best-organized faction will be that of the extremists and the result will reflect that advantage.”

  • Trust the Tehran Times to be interested in the conference on the election planned in Egypt in mid-November. If things were going to happen as planned — i.e. the elections held in January — would there be a need for a conference? Why isn’t the election-monitoring being planned right now with the OSCE or some other organization with election-monitoring experience? There might not be anything intrinsically wrong with postponing the election, but it would be nice that the planning is taking place with the help of organizations with a proven reputation at running elections.
  • From my hotel room I just watched Thomas Melia, a Georgetown professor and “expert on democracy and governance” argue on BBC World that “commentators should be careful” and refer to the upcoming elections in Iraq as only “partially democratic.” He’s just returned from Baghdad where he conducted a survey on the issue, so I hope that what this means is explained further when it’s published.
  • I think I’ve said it before, but you really couldn’t make this stuff up if you tried.

    Italians go free

    Al hamdulillah.

    Al-Jazeera Says 2 Italian Hostages Freed (AP):

    AP – The Arab television network Al-Jazeera announced that two Italian aid workers kidnapped earlier this month were released Tuesday in Iraq. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi confirmed the women had been freed, Italian news reports said.

    “The two girls are well and will be able to embrace their loved ones tonight,” Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was quoted as saying by the AGI news agency.

    Berlusconi’s comments were reported just after the Arab television network Al-Jazeera announced that the Italians, Simona Pari and Simona Torretta, had been freed. A Muslim leader from Italy met with a local Muslim association earlier Tuesday in Baghdad to press for their release, though it was not immediately known if there was a connection.

    A report from Baghdad

    Following is an email from a WSJ reporter in Baghdad that was forwarded me through a long chain of people. Worth reading in its entirety.

    Being a foreign correspondent in Baghdad these days is like being under virtual house arrest. Forget about the reasons that lured me to this job: a chance to see the world, explore the exotic, meet new people in far away lands, discover their ways and tell stories that could make a difference.

    Little by little, day-by-day, being based in Iraq has defied all those reasons. I am house bound. I leave when I have a very good reason to and a scheduled interview. I avoid going to people’s homes and never walk in the streets. I can’t go grocery shopping any more, can’t eat in restaurants, can’t strike a conversation with strangers, can’t look for stories, can’t drive in any thing but a full armored car, can’t go to scenes of breaking news stories, can’t be stuck in traffic, can’t speak English outside, can’t take a road trip, can’t say I’m an American, can’t linger at checkpoints, can’t be curious about what people are saying, doing, feeling. And can’t and can’t….

    Continue reading A report from Baghdad

    Packer on Bush and Iraq

    George Packer holds no punches in a recent New Yorker article, which is well worth a read for a clear look at what should be the central issue of the election and why Kerry seems to be losing it.

    The New Yorker: The Talk of the Town:

    “He forced a congressional vote on the war just before the 2002 midterm elections. He trumpeted selective and misleading intelligence. He displayed intense devotion to classifying government documents, except when there was political advantage in declassifying them. He fired or sidelined government officials and military officers who told the American public what the Administration didn’t want it to hear. He released forecasts of the war’s cost that quickly became obsolete, and then he ignored the need for massive expenditures until a crucial half year in Iraq had been lost. His communications office in Baghdad issued frequently incredible accounts of the progress of the war and the reconstruction. He staffed the occupation with large numbers of political loyalists who turned out to be incompetent. According to Marine officers and American officials in Iraq, he ordered and then called off critical military operations in Falluja against the wishes of his commanders, with no apparent strategic plan. He made sure that blame for the abuses at Abu Ghraib settled almost entirely on the shoulders of low-ranking troops. And then, in the middle of the election campaign, he changed the subject.”

    . . .

    The New Yorker: The Talk of the Town: “In refusing to look at Iraq honestly, President Bush has made defeat there more likely. This failing is only the most important repetition of a recurring theme in the war against radical Islam: the distance between Bush’s soaring, often inspiring language and the insufficiency of his actions. When he speaks, as he did at the Republican Convention, about the power of freedom to change the world, he is sounding deep notes in the American political psyche. His opponent comes nowhere close to making such music. But if Iraq looks nothing like the President’s vision—if Iraq is visibly deteriorating, and no one in authority will admit it—the speeches can produce only illusion or cynicism. In what may be an extended case of overcompensation, so much of the President’s conduct in the war has become an assertion of personal will. Bush’s wartime hero, Winston Churchill, offered his countrymen nothing but blood, toil, tears, and sweat. Bush offers optimistic forecasts, permanent tax cuts, and his own stirring resolve.”

    Iraqi insurgent groups

    Iraqi newspaper identifies insurgent groups – (UPI):

    “There are three main Sunni groups, and five separate factions within them; two Baathist groups; and two Shiite insurgent organizations, according to a recent issue of the Baghdad al-Zawra in Arabic — a weekly published by the Iraqi Journalists Association and translated into English by the CIA.

    The groups are comprised of individual cells that are only loosely affiliated, a supposition endorsed by military intelligence officials in interviews with United Press International.

    “The majority of these groups do not know their leadership, the sources of their financing, or who provides them with weapons,” the Sunday’s report stated.”

    Novak: Bush will get out of Iraq quickly

    Bob Novak, the conservative columnist who outed Ambassador Joseph Wilson’s wife Valerie Plame as a CIA agent, says he believes the Bush administration, if re-elected, will leave Iraq as quick as it can:

    “Well-placed sources in the administration are confident Bush’s decision will be to get out. They believe that is the recommendation of his national security team and would be the recommendation of second-term officials. An informed guess might have Condoleezza Rice as secretary of state, Paul Wolfowitz as defense secretary and Stephen Hadley as national security adviser. According to my sources, all would opt for a withdrawal.

    Getting out now would not end expensive U.S. reconstruction of Iraq, and certainly would not stop the fighting. Without U.S. troops, the civil war cited as the worst-case outcome by the recently leaked National Intelligence Estimate would be a reality. It would then take a resolute president to stand aside while Iraqis battle it out.

    The end product would be an imperfect Iraq, probably dominated by Shia Muslims seeking revenge over long oppression by the Sunni-controlled Baathist Party. The Kurds would remain in their current semi-autonomous state. Iraq would not be divided, reassuring neighboring countries — especially Turkey — that are apprehensive about ethnically divided nations.

    This messy new Iraq is viewed by Bush officials as vastly preferable to Saddam’s police state, threatening its neighbors and the West. In private, some officials believe the mistake was not in toppling Saddam but in staying there for nation building after the dictator was deposed.”

    Perhaps not particularly credible — although I don’t quite see how it helps the Bush administration except by signaling hesitant voters that Bush might end US involvement in Iraq — but intriguing. If Novak wrote about it, then someone must have leaked it to him and it was probably on purpose considering how leak-proof this White House has been. If true, I doubt there will ever be a “humanitarian” preemptive war again.

    Just a reminder

    It’s seems that now it’s official: Iraq had no WMD.

    Actually, it’s about the third time someone reports this — I think the last time was the Kay report presented to Congress. It may not be that important in the face of the fait accompli that is the occupation of Iraq, but it’s worth remembering that this war was brought about by either mind-numbing incompetence or dishonesty. It’s also worth remembering that many “apolitical” Middle Eastern experts were flogging this in the run-up to the war. The neo-cons and their allies may have been doing it for their own ends (i.e. they were dishonest) but how about the “liberal hawks,” people like Ken Pollack (remember this?) Should we ignore these people next time they say something? That the Iraq war was fought on false pretexts may not be a big deal to politicians or even voters in the upcoming US election, but it should be a big deal to those people whose job it is to know about the Arab world and countries like Iraq — the academics, the intelligence officers and the others who should have known better.

    “Blaming Saddam for everything”

    Jimmy Breslin’s editorial in Newsday is mind-boggling for two reasons: one, that such a great number of Americans seem to think that Saddam was behind the 9/11 attacks despite all the media attention that he is getting since his arrest, and secondly that the role of the Bush administration in spreading that notion is still not seriously attacked. Here’s what one person told Breslin, who was interviewing people near the World Trade Center:

    “For me Hussein did it, the other guy, too. These people both is together in Iraq and in the trade center,” Garcia said. “If Saddam don’t do nothing, why he go into a hole? Because he is afraid we catch him for the World Trade Center that he did with bin Laden? The both of them together.”

    Saddam has plenty to blamed for in his own country. Perhaps the misguided notion that he was involved in 9/11 will dissipate when he is put on trial and not charged with conspiring in that attack.

    Saddam Hussein captured

    The official announcement was made by Tony Blair at 11:15am London time, although the Iranian National News Agency and a few members of the Iraqi Governing Council knew of the arrest earlier. President Bush is set to make an announcement later in the day.

    According to Ahmed Chalabi’s spokesman, Entifadh Qanbar, Saddam had dug a hole in the basement of a house where he was hiding and buried himself. He had a salt and pepper beard when soldiers arrested him, was shaved and photographed and then his blood was drawn for DNA testing. The test confirmed his identity.

    Iraqis started celebrating in the streets as the news spread. Many will undoubtedly want to exact (well-deserved) revenge on him, but officials are saying that he will stand trial in Iraq. But Iraq’s war crimes tribunal, which unlike similar courts set up for the former Yugoslovia and Rwanda among others is not an international court, leaves to be desired. The war crimes tribunal was announced last week and will be composed entirely of Iraqis. Some human rights experts have criticized it for not meeting the standards of international law.

    Experts questioned by AFP agreed the Iraqi tribunal should work with the UN to ensure that trials will be impartial.

    “Bring it under the UN and take it away from the Iraqi governing council, which is a political organ, and the US,” Jones recommended. Human Rights Watch also proposed a role for the UN with Iraqi judges and prosecutors mixed with international judges and prosecutors who are used to trying war crimes cases.

    “The only way to set it up is hold it in another country and internationalize the process,” McDonald agrees.

    As an example they point to the war crimes tribunal in Sierra Leone which is UN backed but not a UN institution like the courts for the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda and based on a mixture of international and national law.

    Update: The BBC has posted a nice “Saddam Hussein in pictures” feature as well as a profile. Upon reflection, this arrest may well mark a turning point for the situation in Iraq and the way it is viewed outside. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot changes over the next few weeks in the diplomatic debacle over Iraq as well as the way the occupation is viewed both inside Iraq and inside the US. This brings a real sense of closure that may be more psychologically important than any other event in the war so far.

    Update 2: The AP’s Hamza Hendawi looks at the possibility of putting Saddam on trial, and US forces have released a picture:

    Saddam with beard

    NYT: Iraqi agent denies ever meeting Muhammad Atta

    It’s incredible this story has been kept around for so long considering the lack of evidence, but it seems that there is a new nail in the coffin of the alleged Iraqi intelligence-Muhammad Atta Prague meeting. The New York Times’ excellent intelligence correspondent, James Risen, reported today that the Iraqi agent who was supposed to have been at the meeting, Ahmed Khalil Al Ani (under US custody since July) has told his American interrogators that the meeting never happened, as had Al Qaeda leader Abu Zubayda beforehand. This also confirms the analysis given from the beginning by the CIA and the FBI, which was at odds with what other members of the intelligence community wanted to believe.

    That put the intelligence agencies at odds with hard-liners at the Pentagon and the White House, who came to believe that C.I.A. analysts had ignored evidence that proved links between Iraq and Al Qaeda. Eventually, the Prague meeting became a central element in a battle between the C.I.A. and the administration’s hawks over prewar intelligence.

    Since American forces toppled the Hussein government and the United States gained access to captured Iraqi officials and Iraqi files, the C.I.A. has not yet uncovered evidence that has altered its prewar assessment concerning the connections between Mr. Hussein and Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda, officials said.

    American intelligence officials say they believe there were contacts between Iraq and Al Qaeda in the 1990’s, but there is no proof that they ever conducted joint operations.

    Senior operatives of Al Qaeda who have been captured by the United States since Sept. 11 have also denied any alliance between the organization and Mr. Hussein.

    It’s good that the NYT is giving this story its due. I remember buying a copy of the Times in May 2002 and being dismayed that a CIA denial that a meeting ever took place was buried in a 100-word article on page 14. The story reporting the administration’s allegation of Saddam-Osama ties, and the Prague meeting, must have been front page news — but they buried the denial.

    This new evidence will no doubt be ignored by those who continue to want to link Saddam’s Iraq with Al Qaeda, as the Weekly Standard did recently with “Case Closed“, a story essentially peddling a Douglas Feith memo that contained no new information. But that was quickly debunked here and here.