Rethinking Taba

The Washington Times has an in-depth article looking at how the Israeli intelligence community has re-assessed its attitude towards Al Qaeda’s influence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in light of the Taba bombings. Talking to many Israeli intelligence experts in academia and government, as well as Palestinian and Saudi analysts, it draws a picture of Al Qaeda extending its network’s activities beyond its “core” areas — the Saudi regime and the US — to the pro-US Arab regimes like Egypt. In the long term, the aim is to also have Israel as one area of activity, which would add an entirely new dimension to the conflict as Hamas and Islamic Jihad have thus far stayed away from Al Qaeda.

The consensus in Israel’s intelligence establishment is that al Qaeda is intensifying its campaign against Arab states that have close ties to the United States. Al Qaeda’s long-term goal, according to the intelligence establishment, is to rid the Middle East of perceived Western implants, including the Jewish state.

Bin Laden confirmed that view 21 months ago.

Accusing the moderate Arab regimes of backing the Bush administration in the impending U.S. invasion of Iraq, he described them as “Jahiliya” heathens — the Arabic term for paganism practiced on the Arabian peninsula before the advent of Islam.

In March 2003, Al Jazeera television and some Arabic Web sites carried bin Laden’s “will,” in which he said that “getting rid of the Arab regimes is an Islamic commandment because they are heretical and cooperate with America.”

Until Taba, there has been speculation in Egypt as to why it had been spared from the terrorist attacks that in the past three years have hit Casablanca, Riyadh, Istanbul, Bali, Madrid and other places. Some analysts even ventured as far as saying Al Qaeda had explicitly excluded Egypt from their hit-list, although they had little evidence of this. And while the Egyptian government’s version of events was to downplay the importance of the group that carried the bombings — they basically argued that it consisted of local thugs who had just recently gone fundamentalist — the ongoing campaign of arrests in Sinai suggests that they are looking for something much more sophisticated than this.

Another interesting thing from the story was a little backgrounder on Abdullah Azzam, the Palestinian Islamist activist after which one of the groups that claimed the attack. Azzam is a veteran of Al Azhar, Saudi universities and the Afghan civil war, and apparently a leading proponent of the idea that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict needs to be addressed by dismantling the pro-US Arab regimes.

Azzam’s slogan, “The Way to Liberate Jerusalem Passes Through Cairo,” implies that the downfall of Egypt’s pro-U.S. regime will lead to Israel’s elimination from the Middle East.

That slogan is something that over the past year I’ve heard over and over in demonstrations in support of the intifada or against the Iraq war. The idea it expressed has been endorsed by not only Islamists but also leftists who are enraged by the Mubarak regime’s support of the bogus peace process of the 1990s and the current roadmap effort. I doubt that many of the non-Islamists who chant it are even aware of its origins, but the elegant idea that freedom must come to Cairo (and Riyadh, and Amman, and Damascus and elsewhere) first has an ecumenical potential — even if their interpretation is not, as above, “Israel’s elimination from the Middle East” but rather a stronger, more united Arab stance in negotiations with Israel.

One of the main sources for the Washington Times article was Reuven Paz, whose ideas on the meaning of the Taba bombing are explored in this article reprinted on Internet Haganah.

Barghouti decides to back Abbas after all

Oh well, that didn’t last very long:

“After a meeting of four hours, during which we debated this issue, Marwan Barghouti sends this message to the Palestinian people and its fighters … He calls on the members of the movement to support the movement’s candidate, Mahmoud Abbas,” Fares said.

After the announcement, Barghouti’s daughter Ruba, 15, began weeping. “He is putting his confidence in the sellouts,” she cried.

So I guess the question is, what exactly they promise him in exchange for his support?

Barghouti running for presidency

Now things get interesting:

RAMALLAH, West Bank (Reuters) – Firebrand uprising leader Marwan Barghouthi has decided to run for Palestinian president from his Israeli jail cell, an official of his Fatah faction said on Thursday.

The candidacy could throw the Jan. 9 election wide open and pose a dramatic challenge to current front-runner Mahmoud Abbas, a former prime minister now caught in the glare of the charismatic Barghouthi’s popular appeal with Palestinians.

Barghouthi’s behind-bars bid to succeed the Yasser Arafat (news – web sites) as president also raised the specter of a split in the late leader’s historic Fatah movement, which went ahead and endorsed Abbas as its candidate despite Barghouti’s challenge.

“He has decided to run for president,” the Fatah official, who said he had spoken with Barghouthi’s lawyer, told Reuters. “An official announcement will be made within 24 hours.”

But Fatah ruled out running Barghouthi on its ticket by approving the candidacy of Abbas, 69, three days after a Fatah panel nominated him in a race that has also drawn several lesser-known figures.

It’s truly unfortunate that Barghouti can’t do this from outside of jail. It’d be nice to have a new generation of Palestinian leaders rather than Arafat’s old Tunisian crowd. But I also wonder if this will divide the Fatah vote to the benefit of other factions, unless it’s just a ploy for Barghouti’s group to gain more influence among PLO elders.

Here is the New York Times’ take on it, too:

Palestinian officials said Thursday night that Mr. Barghouti, upset with the vague role Mr. Abbas has offered him in a future Palestinian government, apparently wanted to run. But some Palestinians close to Mr. Barghouti say the Palestinians do not need an incarcerated president, that Fatah must remain united and that his time will come if he makes peace with Mr. Abbas.

Mr. Barghouti could run as an independent, but his candidacy would probably split Fatah. Until his name appears on the ballot, some Palestinians suggest, Mr. Barghouti may simply be reminding Fatah that his supporters, especially young militants, need to be heard and that the intifada should not be halted without Israeli concessions.

One Palestinian official said that Fatah had secured Israeli permission to send Qadura Fares, a minister without portfolio, to Mr. Barghouti to learn his intentions.

They also report that Moshe Katsav, Israel’s president, has said he would consider a pardon for Barghouti. Note that Katsav also recently said that Israel should stop building its “security fence” if Palestinians stop terrorist attacks.

Bush meets Sharansky

I hate to imagine what kind of case this guy makes for democracy:

Those looking for clues about President Bush’s second-term policy for the Middle East might be interested to know that, nine days after his reelection victory, the president summoned to the White House an Israeli politician so hawkish that he has accused Ariel Sharon of being soft on the Palestinians.

Bush met for more than an hour on Nov. 11 with Natan Sharansky, the former Soviet dissident now known as a far-right member of the Israeli cabinet. Joined by Chief of Staff Andrew H. Card Jr., incoming national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley and administration Mideast specialist Elliot Abrams, Bush told Sharansky that he was reading the Israeli’s new book, “The Case for Democracy,” and wanted to know more. Sharansky, with co-author Ron Dermer, had a separate meeting with Condoleezza Rice, later chosen by Bush to be the next secretary of state.

So as well as surrounding himself with people like Danielle Pletka, Condoleeza Rice, Elliott Abrams and Stephen Hadley, Bush also want to meet Israeli politicians that are on the right of Ariel Sharon. Considering who was around, I don’t think this was about convincing him to become more moderate. Mind you, Sharansky may have been the most moderate person there.

American Jews for Peace

This group of people have apparently placed a full-page ad in today’s New York Times. They been doing that for nearly three years now in several major American papers, and should be commended for their public stance. It would be great if a similar organization would enable all Americans, no matter their ethnic backgrounds, to place ads in key media calling for peace in Israel and Palestine.

Qaddumi sure Arafat was poisoned

Why is this idiot saying this:

BEIRUT (AFP) – Faruq Qaddumi, who succeeded Yasser Arafat as head of the mainstream Palestinian Fatah movement, reaffirmed his belief that the Palestinian leader had been poisoned.

“He died due to poison. All the treatments and medical examinations have ruled out all the illnesses that you could think of, like leukaemia or the loss of immunity,” he said in the Lebanese capital.

“Why had all the blood platelets continued to disintegrate? There is no other reason,” he told reporters at a news conference with Lebanese foreign minister Mahmoud Hammoud.

Especially when we know what disease he had and that it reduces platelet counts. By the way, if there are any medical doctors out there who understand this stuff, it’d be nice to have an plain English translation of what “Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation” is why it’s “controversial.”

Medical report vague about cause of Arafat’s death

Nasser Al Qidwa, Yassser Arafat’s nephew, is not being very clear about what he found out from the medical report:

After receiving the medical report on his uncle’s death, Qidwa said there was still no clear cause of death and the poisoning theory could not be ruled out definitively, even though there was no clear evidence of it.

“I have not had the time to study the report and obviously I am not competent because I am not a doctor,” he said Monday.

“But two central points remain. There is no clear diagnosis of the reason for the death, and second the toxicological tests were made and no known poison was found.”

Qidwa, who is also the Palestinian representative at the United Nations (news – web sites), was expected to deliver the 558-page report to a Palestinian ministerial committee which is looking into the causes of Arafat’s death on November 11.

“A question mark remains for us because of the lack of a diagnosis,” Qidwa said. Asked about poisoning, he went on: “I am not excluding this but not asserting it either. There is no proof.”

This is the mystery that simply won’t go away. I think the poison theory, which was always dubious, can be dismissed since the tests found nothing, but it’s really rather surprising that a 558-page report delivers no clear picture of what happened. More likely, he’s not telling. One more thing:

Last week doctors who treated Arafat at a French military hospital outside Paris were quoted in the authoritative daily Le Monde saying he died of a blood clotting disorder called disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC).

If that’s what caused the death, then there is a cause. So why is Qidwa saying it’s inconclusive?