Aretz Sheva, the far-right Israeli website and radio station, seems to be implying in this article Egypt of deliberately doing nothing to stop last week’s locust invasion to ensure they would reach Israel. You gotta love the paranoia.
Tag: egypt
Arab troops in Iraq
Following Ursula’s recent post from the Sharm Al Sheikh conference — and her revelation that Iraq may publicly accuse neighboring countries of aiding the insurgents — I’d like to add a little informed speculation about another possible outcome.
I read Middle Eastern news pretty thoroughly on a daily basis, and there is an important item that’s been unreported in the mainstream press. In fact, I only found out about it last week from the British satirical magazine Private Eye, the best publication available in print in my opinion and the only one I subscribe to. While a lot of Private Eye is humor, they do an excellent watch of British politics and media and also have regular coverage on the murky connections between diplomacy, finance, arms trading and such. In this month’s issue they have a short article about an offer made to President Bush in July by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah to offer Arab peacekeeping troops from several countries, but only on the condition that they be under the command of the UN rather than US. Bush refused.
Considering the developments since the summer, that it is becoming increasingly clear that another 40-50,000 troops are needed to control the uprising, that Poland could get out of Iraq soon (following Hungary) and that France and Germany still seem against the idea of sending troops, he may have to change his mind. The Saudi offer story has recently been confirmed by an Arab source, who said it might come back on the table.
One last thought: if Arab countries do send troops (and perhaps other Muslim countries like Pakistan), they will try to exact a high price for their collaboration. Specifically, they will expect at the very least less pressure on democratization.
Iraq Conference in Egypt
It’s 1 am so I’m not sure this post will be too coherent. I’m covering the conference on Iraq in the Red Coast town of Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt. The conference is being attended by all of Iraq’s neighbors (Syria, Jordan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Turkey) as well as by the US, France, Germany, the UK, the Arab League, the UN, the EU and many more. The aim of the conference is a little vague (more on that later) but in general it’s a show of support for the upcoming elections, for the interim government, and for the future stability of the country.
Today there was the meeting between Iraq and neighboring countries. As of writing this, I know nothing about it from the participants themselves, as they gave no comment on entering or exiting, the talks were not televised, and there was no press conference. There was massive security and journalists were kept miles away. The Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs said that the discussion had focused on elections and security, and that was that. Typical Middle Eastern lack of transparency perhaps. But there may be a further reason that everyone was so tight-lipped. I talked to a high-ranking Iraqi official in Baghdad tonight, and he told me the Iraqi delegation was planning on presenting evidence at the meeting of the “interference” of other countries in its affairs–of how they (he wouldn’t name names, but we are talking Iran and Syria at least obviously) have directly funded and supported terrorist groups in Iraq and how they are home to a great number of rich and disgruntled Baathist elite with links to the insurgency. Oh to have have a fly on the wall at these talks..
In general covering this sort of event is exhausting and really frustrating. A lot of the press spends a lot of its time staking out hotel lobbies (the delegations are spread out over many of the luxurious summer resort hotels here) and hounding passing officials into giving snippets of comment. There was a really funny scene today when the Syrian Foreign Minister became the center of a camera scrum but refused to talk. His handlers on all sides tried to hustle him along, but they took him the opposite way of where he needed to go, and he and his entourage ended up bounding around the courtyard of a hotel like a ping-pong for a while, journalists in hot pursuit. At one point he even accidentally ended up on a dead-end raised catwalk–we all thought he was going to make a statement, but he was just lost. Finally they piled into the obligatory go-cart and took off.
The Iraqi officials were really busy of course and hard to get ahold of but I have to say that they are the most engaging to talk to, in general. They actually say things. The Iraqi deputy foreign minister denied that any civilians had died in Fallujah. He also said the new January 30 election date is realistic, and that Iraqis will participate “because this will determine the future of the country.” And he claimed Kuwait had agree to forgive Iraq 80% of its debt (just like the Paris Club just did). That would be a lot of money, and would put pressure on Saudi Arabia to do so as well, but I was unable to get Kuwaiti officials to confirm this.
Other than the interesting confrontation between Iraq and its neighbors, there are of course the well-established tension between France and the US. France (and other countries) would like there to be a set withdrawal date for US troops. The US doesn’t want to make that commitment. More on this tomorrow after press conferences from Bernier and Powell.
In general, as I started out saying, it’s unclear what practical steps or actions are going to come out of this to aid Iraq. They”ll issue a nice statement at the end, but then what? The underlying problem–that European countries are unwilling to send forces to help with the aftermath of a war they opposed, and Arab countries are afraid a stable Iraq will be a base for further US military interventions in the region–haven’t gone away.
Saad Eddin Ibrahim wants to contest presidency
Saad Eddin Ibrahim, the Egyptian-American activist who spent well over a year in jail between 2000 and 2003 before a case against him was dismissed by Egypt’s highest appellate court, is backing an unlikely amendment to the Egyptian constitution that would allow multiple candidates to be selected:
“If given the chance, I personally want to run (for president) to break the barrier of fear and intimidation,” Ibrahim told The Associated Press. “Not that I have real hopes of success, but I want to show my fellow Egyptians that nothing should be a political taboo.”
Under the current constitution, a presidential candidate is selected by the People’s Assembly, Egypt’s parliament, and then the public votes either “yes” or “no” in a referendum. In the current political climate where the ruling National Democratic Party controls over 80% of seats, this means that there can only be NDP candidates and that no one is likely to be selected to run against Hosni Mubarak, who’s been president for nearly 24 years.
As the story explains, it is unlikely that this amendment, which is backed by 650 activists who signed a petition requesting it, will pass. There have been rumors that the NDP was considering accepting it to run a lame duck NDP candidate against the president to make a show that it is democratic. But surely they thought better of it considering that a) it would look ridiculous, b) it might create an expectation of debates, or at least different platforms, between candidates and c) they are unlikely to encourage the idea that there could ever be anyone better than Mubarak to lead the country.
The truth is the current system — outside of the immediate political conjecture — should be replaced by direct elections of the president, as you find in most countries that at least pretend to be democracies. (Strangely, that doesn’t technically include the US, since the presidential elections there are indirect. In fact, technically the “electors” are meeting on 13 December to elect the next US president. But that’s another story.) After all if parliament retains control of what candidates can present themselves, there can never be a chance for underdogs to enter the political limelight (think Nader, Buchanan, Perot in the US.) Direct presidential elections would give the existing parties as well as movements like the Muslim Brotherhood a chance to campaign in a way they really never have before, and would crystallize symbolically the idea that there could be a president who is not from the ruling party, or indeed who is not from the ruling military junta.
Aside from this, the elections that are coming up in fall of 2005 are going to be very important. After 24 years of Mubarak it is time for him to resign, even if you’re of the opinion he’s done a good job. Otherwise we’re going to see the Bourguibasation of Egypt at a time when the country is in dire need of young blood, a new direction and effective leadership. At this point, no matter about how you feel about Mubarak, it should be clear that it’s time for a fresh start — even if it’s still not democratic or another army general. Time is running out.
Black cloud blues
As I look out of my window, a dense, soupy fog envelops the city. At least half the people I know are sick with some kind of flu, and since I’ve moved to Cairo nearly five years ago I’ve gotten an average of four flus a year. When I leave the city, exposure to clean air gives me a sore throat for a day or so, and when I come back the same thing happens. And I live in a relatively upscale, leafy neighborhood (although close to a major road). They say Cairo traffic cops have the lowest sperm counts in the world because of the lead they inhale, and that the pollution results in a Cairene baby “losing” at least eight points of IQ because of early exposure to heavy metals in the air. Beyond the black cloud that strikes at this time of the year, it’s becoming increasingly urgent for to do something about the pollution in Cairo — it’s reaching 19th century London proportions.
“Out of each 10 people you’ll meet in Cairo this time of year, six or seven of them will have this sort of flu-like cough,” says Dr Ashraf Hatem, professor of chest diseases at Cairo University Hospital, referring to the symptoms so many Cairenes suffer from during the period from late October through November.
“Usually it starts with a soreness or itching in the throat, pains in the eye, itching in the nose, low-grade fever, and sneezing,” Hatem explains. “Then there is a cough, which may come in sporadic attacks that worsen in the evening and at dawn, when the pollution is worst. While these symptoms usually indicate a viral infection of the kind which is passed on so easily in heavily-populated areas like Cairo, the condition is increased significantly by air pollution and what we call the ‘black cloud’.”
More Gamaa Islamiya members freed
The independent newspaper Masri Al Youm is reporting that over 700 members of Gamaa Islamiya have been released in recent days.
This is the second large release of Gamaa members over the past two years, after the fundamentalist renounced terrorism and denounced the killings it was responsible for during the 1980s and 1990s. This would be yet another sign that the state and Gamaa Islamiya have buried the hatchet, while the other main fundamentalist group, Islamic Jihad, has not operated in the country in years as most of its members joined Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.
Follow-up on the Baradei affair
As promised, here is the post-election follow-up on the allegation that Mohammed Al Baradei is covering up a secret Egyptian nuclear weapons program. It’s long, so click “more” to get the whole thing.
Saad’s back
Saad Eddin Ibrahim, the Egyptian democracy activist who spent nearly two years in prison because of his activities before being finally acquitted, has published a courageous editorial that is making the rounds in the regional press: Egypt needs a president, not a latter-day pharaoh
First of all, it’s worth noting that this is perhaps one of the most strongly-worded editorials on the Mubarak regime to ever be published, and that it comes from one of the most prominent Egyptian intellectuals (even if he is marginalized in Egypt because of his pro-American views.) Secondly, remember that Ibrahim was arrested in 2000 on the day that Al Hayat published his article on “republicarchy” (goumloukiya) and the phenomenon in Arab states of hereditary republics. The article centered on Gamal Mubarak and the possibility that he was being groomed for succession, when that still seemed improbable (it doesn’t now.)
Ibrahim’s new article focuses on the need for constitutional reform to provide more checks and balances to counter the powers of the presidency, introduce direct presidential elections with a real contest, and implicitly rejects another term for Mubarak. It would be great to see a real campaign asking that Mubarak step down — petitions such as the one I mentioned recently are a step in the right direction, but this movement needs to gather momentum in the next few months, which the security services won’t like. And we’ve seen what they’re capable of doing to people who talk too much…
Opposition writer roughed up
A prominent columnist for the Egyptian opposition weekly Al Arabi (an organ of the Nasserist party) was kidnapped by security services, taken to the desert outside Cairo, stripped and beaten. Abdel Halim Kandil, who is a prominent columnist writing in one of the most vocal anti-regime publication in Egypt, told: reporters of his ordeal today at the Press Syndicate:
Abdelhalim Kandil’s newspaper, the weekly al-Arabi, condemned the attack and said it suspected the government of being behind the assault and a wider campaign of intimidation.
Kandil said he was nabbed in his Cairo neighbourhood in the middle of the night as he was returning from the traditional meal taken by Muslims during Ramadan before fasting for the day.
He was gagged and blindfolded, beaten up and stripped before being dumped on the main motorway between Cairo and Suez, he said, adding that his attackers told him to “stop talking about important people”.
Although that story does not make it clear, I heard from a reporter who was at the press conference and it’s certain this was not just a random kidnapping but probably involved state security goons.And if that’s so, press freedom and democracy in general just took a nose-dive in Egypt. Kandil, who wrote inflammatory pieces about the regime his Al Arabi — making him one of the most-read writers in the country — was also a signotory to the recent petition asking Mubarak not to run again. This could be a signal to all journalists to quiet down as next year’s elections and presidential referendum approach.
Update: Here is another, better article on what happened.
Libération: el-Baradeï accused of helping cover up Egyptian nuclear program
The respected left-wing French daily Libération published a story implying that Mohammed el-Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is protecting his native country Egypt from investigation of a secret nuclear program. The article makes clear that this is speculation that is currently discreetly making the rounds at the IAEA and that is being pushed mostly by US diplomats, not that it has any tangible proof of this. It notes in particular that the US has been dissatisfied with the “moderate” approach to confronting Iran that el-Baradei favors (as do France and the UK).
Reste à savoir si la polémique, qui demeure très feutrée et ne s’est pas encore exprimée sur la place publique, est fondée. Elle prend sa source dans le programme nucléaire libyen que le très versatile colonel Kadhafi a brutalement abandonné le 19 décembre 2003, permettant à l’AIEA de plonger son nez dans ses dossiers secrets. C’est ainsi, indiquent des sources diplomatiques occidentales travaillant sur ce sujet, qu’il a pu être établi que le programme clandestin avait des implications égyptiennes. Le programme lybien a consisté notamment à importer pour quelque 500 millions de dollars de l’uranium et des équipements de centrifugation, dont 10 000 centrifugeuses P (Pakistan) 2. Un programme important sur lequel, semble-t-il, Tripoli ne faisait pas que travailler pour son propre compte mais aussi, secrètement, pour les Egyptiens. Depuis, une certaine tension existe entre des pays membres de l’AIEA et l’Egypte, les premiers reprochant au Caire de n’avoir pas joué franc jeu. L’affaire est à ce point sensible, à cause des répercussions qu’elle pourrait avoir dans toute la région, qu’elle est traitée avec une grande discrétion, selon les mêmes sources diplomatiques.
Translation: It remains to be seen whether this polemic, which remains low-key and has yet to be expressed in a public forum, is founded. It originates from the Libyan nuclear program that the very versatile Colonel Kadhafi suddenly abandoned on 19 December 2003, allowing the IAEA to stick its nose in its secret files. That is how, point out Western diplomatic sources working on the case, that it has been established that the clandestine program had Egyptian involvement. The Libyan program notably involved importing some $500 million of uranium and centrifuge equipment, including 10,000 P (Pakistan) 2 centrifuges. An important program on which, it seems, Tripoli was not only working for itself but also, secretly, for the Egyptians. Since then, a certain tension exists between member states of the IAEA and Egypt, with the former accusing Egypt of being dishonest. The affair is so sensitive that, because of the repercussions it could have across the region, it is treated with the utmost secrecy, according the same diplomatic sources.
The Egyptian ambassador to the IAEA has already denied the allegations, but the spokesman for the IAEA itself has refused to comment, according to this AFP story.
I’ll have a second post later on this, after the elections, which provides background and digs up previous references to an Egyptian-Libyan nuclear program.