issandr – Page 63

Ayman Nour released

Ayman Nour on the campaign trail in Menouf, 2005. Ayman Nour on the campaign trail in Menouf, 2005.

The public prosecutor’s office declared a couple of hours ago that Ayman Nour would be released on medical grounds. I have heard he is now home. There is no further information as to why now, or why previous appeals to release him on medical ground were denied, but this appears to be a political decision. Rather strange timing that this happens a couple of days after the Washington Post urges the Obama administration not to deal with Hosni Mubarak unless Nour is freed.

Let’s assume – with all due respect to the integrity of the Egyptian legal system – that this is a political decision. What’s the rationale? I think the most plausible explanation is that it is not just an overture to Obama that Mubarak wants to change the negative dynamic in the US-Egypt relationship. It is a clear message that says, “look: Bush tried for four years to pressure me. But I do things on my own timing and any pressure is counterproductive.” The message is, before Obama and his administration settle into a clear approach on Egypt (I don’t think the NSC staffer on Egypt has even been appointed yet), that if the same US approach to Egypt continues, it will only generate headaches. It was necessary to release Nour to improve the bilateral relationship, since after the 2006 Democratic takeover of Congress the Ayman Nour case became a congressional issue beyond the control of the administration (in fact Dick Cheney tried to intervene to calm down Congress, and was pushed back.) Over the last two years Congress has put unprecedented (even if still relatively mild) pressure on Egypt by withholding $100 million in military aid (but giving Condoleeza Rice the right to waiver the withholding, which she did twice). Now Congress will not have Ayman Nour to rally support around this, and the cautious State and DoD approach to the Egyptian relationship (which is very strong in military, intelligence, and a few issues aside diplomatic terms) could very well prevail – especially as we’re seeing a new Egyptian crackdown on the tunnels to Gaza, the other big issue for Congress.

So what happens now? Well, Obama staffers have a token sign of progress they can point to, and a lesson that the Bush approach failed. Congress has what it wants. Ayman Nour, under Egyptian law, is now no longer able to run for public office as he has a criminal record. The Ghad party has been torn in half and will take time to rebuild. The legislative and political environment is much worse than it was when Nour first emerged as a national figure in 2004-2005, and repression is taking place much more brutally and systematically. So, most probably, we will see US pressure on democratic reform die down, since policymakers will find it difficult to get support for another direct confrontation with the Egyptian regime. They will wait and see what happens after succession. And for Mubarak, patience and sheer stubbornness won in the end. Which goes to prove that “democracy promotion” is a policy that’s in need of a serious rethink: “pressure” doesn’t really work, and autocracies have time on their side – unless those doing the pressuring are willing to make a serious break with past practices.

For now, I wish Ayman the best and am tremendously happy for his family, especially his brave wife Gameela who fought against all odds for so many years.

Art patronage in the Emirates

Yesterday I mentioned a censorship controversy at the Dubai Literature Festival and wondered about the problems that art patronage in the Emirates might run into. It turns out that the last issue of ArteEast’s online magazine has the answers to most of my questions. It’s entirely dedicated to the arts in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Christopher K. Brown’s opening article is a good place to start to get a sense of the (incredibly expensive and expansive) art patronage going on in Abu Dhabi. Brown asks:

With so much emphasis placed on appearances and the obvious desire to look impressive, will these cultural initiatives really serve the needs of the public?

There are also several profiles and interviews with artists from the Emirates.

Censorship snafu at Dubai lit festival

The Guardian reports that:

Margaret Atwood has pulled out of the inauguraul Emirates Airline international festival of literature in the wake of a novelist being blacklisted for potential offence to “cultural sensitivities”.

The book in question is former Observer journalist Geraldine Bell’s “The Gulf Between Us,” a romantic comedy set in the Gulf. It appears that a minor gay character–a local sheikh with a foreign boyfriend–may be the cause. You can read the author’s take here.

I am so bored with these “homosexuality/art/censorship” controversies in the Arab world. As the director of the festival himself points out at the end of the following statement he released, the controversy will only help the book’s sales.

I have lived in Dubai for forty years. Based on my knowledge of who would appeal to the book-reading community in the Middle East, and having read 150 pages of Bedell’s manuscript I knew that her work could offend certain cultural sensitivities. I did not believe that it was in the festival’s long term interests to acquiesce to her publisher’s (Penguin) request to launch the book at the first festival of this nature in the Middle East.

We do, of course, acknowledge the excellent publicity campaign being run by Penguin which will no doubt increase sales of her book and we wish Ms Bedell the very best.

But I do think this snafu points to larger problems with the Gulf states’ increasing patronage of the arts–from the many literary festivals they are organizing to the gigantic new Guggenheim Abu Dhabi museum. The Emirates want to put themselves on the world map as art and culture patrons, but they are out of step with international expectations about an artist’s right to express herself and to tackle all manner of provocative subjects.

(P.S. Thanks for the tip, Sumita)

More Emily Jacir

The New York Times runs a review of Emily Jacir’s show at the Guggenheim (I’ve already discussed their interview with her earlier).

Dry, cerebral, fragmentary and stylistically derivative, the exhibition is less affecting and less informative than any number of newspaper and magazine articles about the Palestinian situation you might have read over the last 40 years.

I went to the show’s opening and thought it was very affecting.

Anyway, despite the NYT reviewer’s claims that his problem is with the formal execution of the show–not with its political content–he spends a good deal of time questioning that content.

If one were to judge from Ms. Jacir’s work, Mr. Zuaiter was innocent of any connection to the Munich murders, eliminated rather because he was an eloquent spokesman for the Palestinian cause.

In the wall text that introduces the exhibition, however, there is a curious qualification. It says that Mr. Zuaiter was never “conclusively” linked to the Olympics murders. This introduces the shadow of a doubt. Is there a chance that he was somehow involved? Ms. Jacir’s exhibition can thus be viewed as a brief for the defense, but this is problematic. How can we know if the artist is manipulating her material, leaving out anything that might be suspicious or incriminating?

Here’s the wiki page on Zuaiter. It seems clear to me that while the Mossad suspected him of being linked to the Munich attacks, no evidence has been made public to prove this–and shouldn’t the burden of proof be on them?

A question

For those of you who regularly read this blog: you’ve noticed that I write regular posts a lot less, and instead have these daily lists of links. I would try to start blogging normally more often again, and will try providing I have time, but in the meantime do you prefer:

1. Daily compilations of links as currently exists; OR
2. Each link to be posted individually with the opportunity to leave comments on that specific one.

I’d appreciate any thoughts on this issue ahead of an upcoming reorganization of the site. Thanks!

Links February 17th to February 18th

Links from my del.icio.us account for February 17th through February 18th:

Arts diary, Charlotte Higgins: Churchill’s Gaza play accused of antisemitism | Culture | The Guardian – Anti-semitism, anti-Shmemitism: play accused of 'blood libel' because it refers to 'dead babies' in Gaza.

Assad urges US to restore Damascus envoy | World news | guardian.co.uk – Guardian talks to Bashar al-Assad about Obama, engagement, etc.

POMED Notes: Rashid Khalidi – Rashid Khalidi lecture on Israel-Palestine, regional powers, international law.

Memo From Cairo – Egypt’s Critics Have a Voice, but Never the Last Word – NYTimes.com – Good article in the NYT looking at bloggers' emprisonment but getting to the more general bottom line: Egypt is a police state, and one where there is no other vision than continuing being a police state.

Watch That Welcome – washingtonpost.com – WaPo tells Obama not to visit Cairo or receive Mubarak in Washington unless progress is shown on democratic reforms.

A child of Cairo’s streets, with a child of her own – Los Angeles Times – Just read it.

The Empty Quarter: news and analysis of southern arabia – Another interesting Arabian Peninsula blog, focusing on security issues.

The Daily Star – Opinion Articles – In Morocco, anger at Arab collusion against Gaza – "In the face of this organized hypocrisy, the average Moroccan, Algerian, Libyan or Egyptian citizen was stuck with two unpalatable choices: to support or join forces with radical liberation or transnational revolutionary movements whose lack of a coherent strategic vision has brought chaos and destabilization to large swaths of Arab land; or to continue to bow down to a power structure dominated by corrupt and dependent authoritarian regimes. The causes of these dangerously conflicting and, at times, polarizing sentiments of the masses about their predicament have existed for generations, though the hardening of the rift between the two extremes has never been revealed with such stark acuity as it was during the Gaza confrontation."

Islam and Insurgency in Yemen – New blog on Yemen, focusing on insurgency and Islamist movements.

A new enemy for Gaza smugglers – Los Angeles Times – "The Egyptian people are our brothers," Abu Baraa says. "The government is a collaborator."

Always on the side of the egg – Haaretz – Israel News – Acceptance speech of Haruki Murakami, Japanese novelist who was awarded Israel's Jerusalem award, in which he comments (ambiguously?) on the Gaza war and thoughts of boycotting: "Between a high, solid wall and an egg that breaks against it, I will always stand on the side of the egg."

Sudan’s top novelist dies in London at 80 – Al-Tayyib Salih, author of 'Season of Migration to the North', passes away. There was a campaign to get him nominated for the Nobel before he passed away, as his work is thought to be among the most important in modern Arabic literature.

BBC NEWS | Programmes | File on 4 | What was Egypt’s real Gaza role? – Good radio program on Egypt's role during the Gaza crisis.

Bourdain and the Public Face of Egypt – Mango Girl links to a food show by celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain, shot in Egypt, in which he gets yelled at for showing an interest in street food rather than "respectable" tourist restaurants.

Links for February 16th

Links from my del.icio.us account for February 16th:

One on One: ‘I was the resident skeptic’ | Jerusalem Post – Elliott Abrams' long interview with what may be his favorite paper.

Abbas says won’t start from scratch in peace talks – More settlements: "Israel meanwhile declared a large patch of land in the occupied West Bank state land, paving the way for a new settlement there despite repeated demands from the Palestinians and the international community to halt such activities."

TPM | Israel mulls releasing uprising leader to Abbas – "JERUSALEM, Feb 15 (Reuters) – Israel could release Palestinian uprising leader Marwan Barghouthi to bolster President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah faction before any prisoner swap with Hamas, an Israeli political source said on Sunday." Hopefully he won't just bolster Abbas, he'll replace him (although I do like that other Barghouti, Mustafa.)

How do you say ‘hasbarah’ in Arabic? | Middle East | Jerusalem Post – Former Israeli ambassador to Egypt is editing a website to bring Israel's point of view to Arab audiences. It selects articles from "liberal" Arab writers and promotes them, among other things. Sounds like MEMRI in Arabic.

TelQuel : Le Maroc tel qu’il est – Revisiting the 10 July 1971 coup attempt in Skhirat that nearly overthrew Hassan II and possibly the Moroccan monarchy.

FT.com / World – Saudi king speeds reforms – Saudi reshuffle aims to marginalize Wahhabi religious establishment.

Links February 14th to February 15th

Links from my del.icio.us account for February 14th through February 15th:

The Saharan Conundrum – NYTimes.com – Article on US policy towards Mauritania, move from Bush administration balancing of security cooperation with nasty regimes and push for democratization. It's flawed in many respects, and the author, a Pakistan expert, may be trying to apply ideas from that country (esp. US backing for Musharaff's dictatorship) to Mauritania. I don't think the two are comparable, and Mauritania does not have the same jihadist tradition/experience that Pakistan had since the 1970s. Beyond that, I'm not sure what's the author's point.

Army returns to an old tactic to defeat resurgent Taliban: sniping | UK news | The Observer – Article about the use of snipers as most effective weapon in Afghanistan.

Maghreb Politics Review – New multi-author blog led by the guy who runs The Moor Next Door, will focus on covering Maghreb politics and geostrategy in English, bringing more attention to a region mostly covered in Arabic and French.

Israel’s Back Yard – New blog on West Bank checkpoints by Israeli human rights activist.

TPMMuckraker | Talking Points Memo | Blackwater Is Dead! Long Live … Xe? – Blackwater rebrands itself. All's forgiven.

Links February 11th to February 14th

Links from my del.icio.us account for February 11th through February 14th:

Pre-empting the Satellite TV Revolution – Committee to Protect Journalists – On the Arab Interior Ministrers' agreement to control satellite TV stations.

ei: Israel lurches into fascism – Ali Abunimah writes: "Lieberman, who previously served as deputy prime minister, has a long history of racist and violent incitement. Prior to Israel's recent attack, for example, he demanded Israel subject Palestinians to the brutal and indiscriminate violence Russia used in Chechyna. He also called for Arab Knesset members who met with officials from Hamas to be executed.
But it's too easy to make him the bogeyman. Israel's narrow political spectrum now consists at one end of the former "peace camp" that never halted the violent expropriation of Palestinian land for Jewish settlements and boasts with pride of the war crimes in Gaza, and at the other, a surging far-right whose "solutions" vary from apartheid to outright ethnic cleansing."

Hamas murder campaign in Gaza exposed | World news | guardian.co.uk – I'd like to read more detail about the kind of people Hamas went after in its murder-and-kneecapping campaign, especially an analysis of how credible the claims that the victims were IDF collaborators or whether they were just political opponents.

U.S., EU indicate they prefer Kadima-Likud unity government in Israel – Haaretz – Israel News – Because a Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu coalition would just make their jobs explaining why the US still supports Israel more difficult?

UK Muslim tells court he fabricated Islamist past | International | Reuters – The result of the British media paying for interviews with ex-jihadists: "Hassan Butt, 28, told Manchester Crown Court he had fed stories to the media and that his portrayal of himself as a terrorist planner who later renounced violence in order to fight Islamist extremism was a fabrication."

Mauritania says it has closed its embassy in Israel – Haaretz – Israel News – About time.

The American Conservative » Whither Zinni – Zinni overlooked for Iraqi ambassador job: "Zinni was rejected after Clinton came under pressure from some major supporters in New York State who told her that the appointment was unacceptable to Israel because Zinni is perceived as “hostile” to the Jewish state. Zinni has, indeed, been critical of Israel on a number of occasions. Another source in the intelligence community has told me that Zinni was perceived as bad for Israel’s security because Israel regards Iraq as a “front line state” in its confrontation with Iran. If Israel were to attack Iran it would need overflight approval over Iraq, something that Zinni would be unlikely to approve, possibly even submitting his resignation to stop such a development."

Links for February 10th

Links from my del.icio.us account for February 10th:

Exit polls: Livni’s Kadima leads in 2009 elections – Haaretz – Israel News – It appears Kadima has won the election but that Likud has the bloc that can make Netanyahu PM.

PressThink: Audience Atomization Overcome: Why the Internet Weakens the Authority of the Press – How the internet is forcing topics and information normally relegated to "the sphere of deviance" on the news agenda. You know the obvious topic in the US context: Israel.

Coptic arrests inflame Egypt’s sectarian tensions | Jerusalem Post – "State security officials arrested Mina 'Adil Shawki and 'Issam Kadees Nassif after they were seen handing out Bibles at the book fair. An Egyptian human rights center said police filed a report against the two men for "defaming Islam.""

ELECTION DAY: ISRAEL GOES TO THE POLLS – Haaretz – "Voting for the 18th Knesset began in Israel at 7 A.M. on Tuesday, in what has turned out to be a tight race between Kadima and Likud. A total of 5,278,985 registered voters will be given a chance to cast their ballot in 9263 polls across the country until 10 P.M, electing their representatives from among 33 factions." Tight race between butcher of Gaza and the butcher of Oslo.

Excerpts From The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008 (washingtonpost.com) – Washington Post special about the decision to implement the surge in Iraq.