Being rather busy with work, I have paid rather scant attention to the “liquid explosives” airplane plot except to figure out how to carry all the expensive electronics I usually carry with me when I travel. I did hear, notably from people in Lebanon, many people express a fear that this is a diversionary tactic from the war on Lebanon and thus an invented plot. I have no idea about this, but when you get someone like Craig Murray, the courageous former British ambassador to Uzbekistan who revealed British collaboration with the rather nasty regime of Islam Karimov. What he has to say is quite revealing. (See also this MSNBC report.) I mean, none of the alleged terrorists had bought plane tickets and some of them didn’t even have passports! And it seems the US pressured the UK to arrest the suspects sooner rather than keep them under surveillance.
I dont know if this was a plot or not,,but what i know is, that acording to arab media (unfortunatelly on this site as well) out of 10 terrorist attacks, “11” is a work of western or israeli secret services. The matter is, here you dont put it so openly,,you just raise some “inocent doubts”. please be a bit more carefull on how do you use verb ‘reveal’.
Let there be no confusion: from what I’ve read, there does seem to be a bombing plot by Pakistani Islamists. But the question is whether it has greatly been exagerated, was anywhere near a stage it could be carried out, and the timing of the arrests since there was no immediate threat and most suspects were under surveillance.
Not so long ago people were taping plastic sheets on their windows with duct tape over the possibility of chemical attacks in the US. Let’s not forget the pattern of exageration over terrorist plots in the past.
Also, you’ll note the links I gave are from a respected former British ambassador and MSNBC, not the Arab media. If I reported every conspiracy theory in the Arab media I would never sleep.
Also, all the buzz words are in operation- “gave no further details,” no information on when, etc. In light of the Canadian arrests, the Florida arrests, the recent “terrorist cellphone collectors” (who now they say weren’y terrorists) arrests- one has to ask about details and to look at the timing- especially in light of the fact it is now being discussed that the US and Israel were planning attacks on Hezbollah as a dry run for Iran. Quick! Look over there! A terrorist just ran by! Stop asking questions and inform on your neighbor!
It’s always wise to be skeptical, but I think there ought to also be understanding for overreaction. The MSNCB link even said what I thought before I read it: the US is jittery about these things. It would rather go in too hard or too early than wait and see. I’m no security expert, and it seems equally logical to wait a bit until the threat matures, but I don’t know that it’s so easy to damn the US for wanting to simply arrest the plotters or would-be plotters asap, even if they don’t have tickets or passports, you know? If I were in charge of such things, “better safe than sorry” would be my mantra. (None of that precludes the possibility this all was hyped up for political reasons.)
Also, Zazou: it’s not exactly accurate to say US and Israel were planning attacks on the Hezb as a dry run for Iran. Israeli sources made clear they would have attacked the Hezb no matter what, because they saw it as a threat. They also made clear that this attack happened to be something the Bush admit was very keen on, because the US thought it would be a dry run for Iran. But the way you and many put it, it suggests that Israel and the US cooked this up together and were just itching for a chance to bomb the heck out of Lebanon. And I think it did not happen like that. Israel responded to what it saw as a threat. Then the US came in and said: cool, this’ll help us plan for Iran. Israel, foolishly, went along with this, and I think got drunk on the Bush admin’s seemingly carte blanche support.
Incidentally, if it is *really* the case the Bush folks thought this was a good dry run for Iran, then maybe it’s good it happened, cos it’s hard (or just harder) to imagine them being as keen to go into Iran now as maybe they had been.
Dan, you raise some good points, but I still think this terror thing smacks of manipulation and timing. I’m not saying the US/Israel cooked up the Lebanon invaasion- I’m just saying it is being discussed- and rather widely- that this was a test run for Iran.
Personally, I think there are several motivations at play here- interestingly enough- during Israel’s atteck on Lebanon, the pervasive view was that this was the “only democratic country in the Middle East” defending itself against more bad guys. However, a story on the wires today, has Rep Darryl Issa (yep, the same guy I dissed a few weeks ago…) now saying the US has to help Lebanon because “We have only days to act,â€� said Issa, the Vista Republican and Lebanese-American who just returned from Lebanon and other Middle Eastern nations. “Only days to seize this opportunity, if we’re going to win back the hearts and mindsâ€� of the Arab nation that is “most favorable to the West and to the United States – and the longest-standing democracy in the Middle East.â€� (story http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060816/news_1n16issa.html“ rel=”nofollow”>here . I’m sorry, but where were these sentiments when Israel was bombing the hell out of Lebanon? Where was the story of one democracy beating up another democracy using money and materials given by a third democracy?
I am far from an expert on Lebanon so I should probably be shutting up now. But of course I won’t.
I am ambivalent about calling Lebanon a democracy, only because, practically speaking, if the Hizbullah has a veto over the democratic government, then… well, then what good’s the democracy? The democratic Lebanon did not go to war with Israel. The Lebanon controlled by Hizbullah went to war with Israel. And Israel, obviously, could not tell them apart. Some, anti-Israel, would suggest it didn’t want to tell them apart, and didn’t care, and just killed innocents for kicks, for punishment. Others, pro-Israel, would suggest that it was impossible for Israel to differentiate, because the Hizbullah effectively controlled the situation, they *were* Lebanon as far as the fighting went. In any case, the democratic government of Lebanon seemed not to be part of the equation during the fighting.
I read the article you linked. I would love to think this guy is right and that if America came in and helped it would do some good. But I am cynical that the Bush admin would know how to help, even if it tried. Like, that idea, that the US should go, immediately, tomorrow!, and send experts on oil clean-ups to Lebanon and gather funds to help the Siniora gov’t get that mess cleaned up so that in even a few weeks it could be cleaned or very positively impacted — that’s a great idea. And I’m certain it’s possible, right? But hot damn I would surprised to see something so “creative” come out of the Bush administration.
while I’m no fan of conspiracy theories (occam’s razor and all), it is worth remembering that sometimes conspiracies do happen, the classical historical example is the Lavon Affair (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavon_affair)
Well, you can believe the guy if you really-really want to. Otherwise, a bit of history – it is very rarely that you can convict a terrorist before they done something. Even Weathermen were not convicted. It is because secret services have to use methods that wouldn’t stand a chance in court. They usually chose prevention over not compromising a trial, and we are all glad they do.
If you like Craig Murray so much, try to ask him – why Uzbekistan and even Turkmenistan are full members of OIC? If it is all about religious feelings, how come forcing the whole country to worship “Allah, His descendant Sapamurat Nijazov and His prophet Mohhamad” is ok, while Israelis visiting the Temple Mount are not?
Is it because Israelis work hard and prosper?
Well, as fsr as Issa is concerned, he talks a good game but stands solidly with the Republicans. As for Israel being a democracy- tons of good beachfront property in Arkansas- tons.
True, it’s difficult to convict terrorists before they’ve actually done something, but there are some fairly obvious arguments for due diligence on whether or not suspects pose a real threat – one, you want to make sure you’ve got the right guys; two, you don’t want to cry wolf (as in the case of all those “cells” that were busted in upstate NY or Washington state) and then face scepticism about your claims when you do actually identify real threats; three, if you arrest people on vague suspicions and flimsy evidence and then use torture to get false confessions out of them, you discredit yourself in the communities whose cooperation you need to catch the real plotters. It’s not enough to just thump your chest and go on about being tough on terror.
Somehow I trust the Brits more than I would Americans to investigate this alleged plot methodically and without too much political pressure. If only Tony Blair would tear off that dog collar and resist the Bushies’ pressure.
Here is an argument for why the liquid explosives threat isn’t as plausible as it might seem at first, from a chemistry-geek viewpoint, stolen off another blog I read:
http://www.interesting-people.org/archives/interesting-people/200608/msg00087.html
Just one note about the “dry run” theory: I don’t see how the Hizbullah-Israel war can be seen as a practice for a war on Iran. The military goals and methods would be completely different. It might be a message to Iran to behave (which didn’t work) but a dry run? Not convincing, especially as presumably any military operations against Iran would a) not involve invasion, b) focus on military and WMD targets c) not seek to bring down the regime but to weaken and isolate it. At least one hopes that’s the thinking.
Well, if you look at it as a semi-proxy conflict (at least on the US side)- you can see how they might be experimenting. Some methods employed in the invasion of Iraq got a facelift. Clearly Bush and Co learn nothing from past mistakes, or from people actually knowledgeable about the region- so why would they start being logical now?