Youth for Change, Kefaya‘s youth wing, has called for a demonstration tomorrow Saturday, 6pm, in front of the Lawyers’ Syndicate, to celebrate Hizbollah’s victory and to denounce any planned move to disarm the resistance group.
0 thoughts on “Pro-Hizbollah demo tomorrow”
It seems a little tasteless to “celebrate” when a thousand civilians have been killed…no?
It could have been “tasteless” if the activists were holding some belly dancing concert tomorrow and popping champaigns in the street. What the Youth for Change activists are calling for is a DEMO in solidarity with the resistance; a demo where they might get beaten, brutalized, or sodomized, if State Security was in bad mood.
A lot of people are talking about victory, but what exactly did Hizballah win? Hizballah would have declared victory no matter what the outcome. The reality as I see it is a lot more complicated than the official narrative. Simply put, Hizballah lost materially and gained politically, while the Israeli government gained materially and lost politically. Which is more important? Time will tell…
I agree with SP. Youth for Change, as an Egyptian organization, should focus on denouning the Egyptian stance on this conflict and embarassing the government rather than celebrating a dubious victory. There really isn’t much to celebrate at this stage, because I suspect Israel is going to start bombing again within a few months. Just wait till Bibi becomes PM.
al-Himyari, can you explain how Israel won “materially”? Their stated objective was to get back the soldiers, deplete or at least disarm Khizballakh and to get a chapter 7 mandated force on the border. Instead they got no soldiers, many dead civilians, a politically stronger Hizballah (which in this region translates as material), more recruits to Hizballah and a toothless UN force that will most likely be made up primarily of Muslims from Indonesia and Malaysia who are probably elated by Nasrallah’s charm. I am confused.. I would say Israel and Lebanon lost miserably and Hizballah actually came out of this in better shape than ever.
It’s too soon to judge the composition of the force patroling the Lebanese border, but the fact is that Hezbollah would never have agreed to be replaced on the southern border without a war of this nature. The presence of international and Lebanese troops on the border will make it more difficult for either side to wage war, and the simmering resentment of the Lebanese population against the war, as enraged as it is against Israel, will ensure that Hezbollah does not undertake any other adventures for a while.
The real danger is that Arab regimes acknowledge this as a victory (they won’t) and plan for Israel’s demise accordingly (they do). If instability is the concern, a perceived Israeli defeat is more dangerous for the region than an unequivocal victory (witness Bashar’s triumphalism).
Lastly, figurative heads will roll in Israeli poltiics, but I expect Nasrallah’s to be actually disembodied quite soon.
I said it before, and I’ll say it again… The movement for change here in Egypt sees itself linked organically with all other struggles in the region… be it against the apartheid state of Israel, the US occupation of Iraq, or the democratic struggle against the rest of the Arab autocrats. A victory they achieve, is a victory for the Egyptian movement.. a defeat they encounter, is a defeat for the Egyptian movement.
Again i don’t agree. The UN force does not have chapter 7 powers. End of story. They will not involve themselves in a regional war, this has been proven time and time again. Think Srebinica. The Lebanese Army is useless and actually acts has a help to Hizballah in as far as if there is another skermish they will be likely targets from Israel, shielding Hizballahs activities. The truth is, as sad as this is to say, the majority of the Army rank and file is Shia and they will not fight the Hizb. Everyone in the Shia community has family in the Hizb. Everyone.
Nasrallah may be killed but his stature has been solidified in Lebanon and the Arab and the Muslim world as a hero. I can’t stand the guy or Hizballah, but even I have to respect the way he handles himself. He makes every effort not to repeat the mistakes of Nasser and you can see that when he speaks. Everytime he gets slightly exhuberent he reels himself in.
As for the Lebanese polity and that (less than) 1/2 of the population that is not Shia, they are feckless and cannot mount a serious threat to anyone. Hizballah accepted this UN Res., I think, to stem a civil war. The problem is that civil war is inevitable. When you have a group of people who care more about their own interests and the interests of their sponsors you can’t help but end up in a bad place.
Anyway, as to your last point. Its funny that on the one hand i wish his head would roll because I can’t stand islam in politics. on the other he would be made a martyr greater than Khomeini. I would rather he be given enough rope to show his hand and hang himself.
As for the Arab arena, I fear nothing will change. This Kefaya thing is perfect, it shows that thing that we do where we lionize some distant hero.. whether distant by history or distant by place. The Kefaya Kids, in my opinion, should be out protests the truely disgusting behavior of their own regime.
Oh and by the way, as for Hizballah not taking any adventures soon. That again is to their advantage. I beleive the Hizb would be beat in a long war, but now they don’t need one. They can claim they won and continue building up capacity for a long time.
Good points, but I still see some benefit from the policing of the border by national and international troops, even if this lends only symbolic legitimacy to the idea of Lebanon as a state. And what of Germany’s “robust maritime component”? Will Merkel pull a Blair and go against popular sentiment on this one? The French have bailed out (what else is new).
I have to say that I am sometimes confounded by Lebanese politics, but when I heard Ghazi al-Aridi say that the Lebanese army will be deployed on the border to solidify the achievements of the resistance I had to laugh at the double talk. Now as that reality is playing out, I almost have to cry. In time, things may change there for the better. In his last speech, Nasrallah almost pleaded with the Lebanese state to reach out to the Shia, and seemed to justify Hezbollah’s actions on the basis of this neglect. I don’t see civil war there, I just see a whole lot of trauma. I almost have to agree with the Angry Arab about Lebanon not being a state. But this war was fought on the premise that Lebanon HAS to be a state. Paradoxes don’t work well in politics.
‘celebrations’ at this moment are also shocking for me. I can easily understand and accept them in a political speech though.
But I was literally shocked watching -thru al Jazeera- Hizbollah men playing loud resistance music in the streets, weaving Hizbollah and Lebanon flags, and distributing sweets to troops of vehicles returning back to the South amidst a strong smell of gun fire and death.
One has to question the wisdom of the Youth for Change strategy.
It’s clear that Kefaya and Youth for Change have been unable to mobilize more than a small elite in Cairo and in a few other places like Port Said. Until they can put large numbers in the streets, they will rely on, I’m sorry to say, American pressure on the Egyptian regime because they are not capable of supplying meaningful internal pressure.
So … cheering on Hizballah may feel good, and perhaps it will lead to more support, but the US is going to look at this and think: why should we support these guys?
And then they’ll be roughed up and thrown in jail, and the US won’t say a thing, just as they do with the Brothers.
I’m not saying this is all to the good, but unfortunately it is the present reality.
It seems a little tasteless to “celebrate” when a thousand civilians have been killed…no?
It could have been “tasteless” if the activists were holding some belly dancing concert tomorrow and popping champaigns in the street. What the Youth for Change activists are calling for is a DEMO in solidarity with the resistance; a demo where they might get beaten, brutalized, or sodomized, if State Security was in bad mood.
A lot of people are talking about victory, but what exactly did Hizballah win? Hizballah would have declared victory no matter what the outcome. The reality as I see it is a lot more complicated than the official narrative. Simply put, Hizballah lost materially and gained politically, while the Israeli government gained materially and lost politically. Which is more important? Time will tell…
I can understand the solidarity sentiment and of course support demos that stick it to the Mubarak regime – just not the idea of a celebration.
I agree with SP. Youth for Change, as an Egyptian organization, should focus on denouning the Egyptian stance on this conflict and embarassing the government rather than celebrating a dubious victory. There really isn’t much to celebrate at this stage, because I suspect Israel is going to start bombing again within a few months. Just wait till Bibi becomes PM.
al-Himyari, can you explain how Israel won “materially”? Their stated objective was to get back the soldiers, deplete or at least disarm Khizballakh and to get a chapter 7 mandated force on the border. Instead they got no soldiers, many dead civilians, a politically stronger Hizballah (which in this region translates as material), more recruits to Hizballah and a toothless UN force that will most likely be made up primarily of Muslims from Indonesia and Malaysia who are probably elated by Nasrallah’s charm. I am confused.. I would say Israel and Lebanon lost miserably and Hizballah actually came out of this in better shape than ever.
It’s too soon to judge the composition of the force patroling the Lebanese border, but the fact is that Hezbollah would never have agreed to be replaced on the southern border without a war of this nature. The presence of international and Lebanese troops on the border will make it more difficult for either side to wage war, and the simmering resentment of the Lebanese population against the war, as enraged as it is against Israel, will ensure that Hezbollah does not undertake any other adventures for a while.
The real danger is that Arab regimes acknowledge this as a victory (they won’t) and plan for Israel’s demise accordingly (they do). If instability is the concern, a perceived Israeli defeat is more dangerous for the region than an unequivocal victory (witness Bashar’s triumphalism).
Lastly, figurative heads will roll in Israeli poltiics, but I expect Nasrallah’s to be actually disembodied quite soon.
I said it before, and I’ll say it again… The movement for change here in Egypt sees itself linked organically with all other struggles in the region… be it against the apartheid state of Israel, the US occupation of Iraq, or the democratic struggle against the rest of the Arab autocrats. A victory they achieve, is a victory for the Egyptian movement.. a defeat they encounter, is a defeat for the Egyptian movement.
al-Himyari,
Again i don’t agree. The UN force does not have chapter 7 powers. End of story. They will not involve themselves in a regional war, this has been proven time and time again. Think Srebinica. The Lebanese Army is useless and actually acts has a help to Hizballah in as far as if there is another skermish they will be likely targets from Israel, shielding Hizballahs activities. The truth is, as sad as this is to say, the majority of the Army rank and file is Shia and they will not fight the Hizb. Everyone in the Shia community has family in the Hizb. Everyone.
Nasrallah may be killed but his stature has been solidified in Lebanon and the Arab and the Muslim world as a hero. I can’t stand the guy or Hizballah, but even I have to respect the way he handles himself. He makes every effort not to repeat the mistakes of Nasser and you can see that when he speaks. Everytime he gets slightly exhuberent he reels himself in.
As for the Lebanese polity and that (less than) 1/2 of the population that is not Shia, they are feckless and cannot mount a serious threat to anyone. Hizballah accepted this UN Res., I think, to stem a civil war. The problem is that civil war is inevitable. When you have a group of people who care more about their own interests and the interests of their sponsors you can’t help but end up in a bad place.
Anyway, as to your last point. Its funny that on the one hand i wish his head would roll because I can’t stand islam in politics. on the other he would be made a martyr greater than Khomeini. I would rather he be given enough rope to show his hand and hang himself.
As for the Arab arena, I fear nothing will change. This Kefaya thing is perfect, it shows that thing that we do where we lionize some distant hero.. whether distant by history or distant by place. The Kefaya Kids, in my opinion, should be out protests the truely disgusting behavior of their own regime.
Oh and by the way, as for Hizballah not taking any adventures soon. That again is to their advantage. I beleive the Hizb would be beat in a long war, but now they don’t need one. They can claim they won and continue building up capacity for a long time.
Good points, but I still see some benefit from the policing of the border by national and international troops, even if this lends only symbolic legitimacy to the idea of Lebanon as a state. And what of Germany’s “robust maritime component”? Will Merkel pull a Blair and go against popular sentiment on this one? The French have bailed out (what else is new).
I have to say that I am sometimes confounded by Lebanese politics, but when I heard Ghazi al-Aridi say that the Lebanese army will be deployed on the border to solidify the achievements of the resistance I had to laugh at the double talk. Now as that reality is playing out, I almost have to cry. In time, things may change there for the better. In his last speech, Nasrallah almost pleaded with the Lebanese state to reach out to the Shia, and seemed to justify Hezbollah’s actions on the basis of this neglect. I don’t see civil war there, I just see a whole lot of trauma. I almost have to agree with the Angry Arab about Lebanon not being a state. But this war was fought on the premise that Lebanon HAS to be a state. Paradoxes don’t work well in politics.
‘celebrations’ at this moment are also shocking for me. I can easily understand and accept them in a political speech though.
But I was literally shocked watching -thru al Jazeera- Hizbollah men playing loud resistance music in the streets, weaving Hizbollah and Lebanon flags, and distributing sweets to troops of vehicles returning back to the South amidst a strong smell of gun fire and death.
It was just very disturbing for me.
I tend to agree with AngryArab on most everything. However these comments are much more civlized than his. Thankfully.
One has to question the wisdom of the Youth for Change strategy.
It’s clear that Kefaya and Youth for Change have been unable to mobilize more than a small elite in Cairo and in a few other places like Port Said. Until they can put large numbers in the streets, they will rely on, I’m sorry to say, American pressure on the Egyptian regime because they are not capable of supplying meaningful internal pressure.
So … cheering on Hizballah may feel good, and perhaps it will lead to more support, but the US is going to look at this and think: why should we support these guys?
And then they’ll be roughed up and thrown in jail, and the US won’t say a thing, just as they do with the Brothers.
I’m not saying this is all to the good, but unfortunately it is the present reality.