On Palestinan youth in Lebanon.
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Tag: lebanon
Au Liban, des hommes politiques chrétiens et chiites jouent un mauvais remake de « L’Insulte »
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Diaries of a garbage bag
Synaps’ Ranine Awwad on Lebanon’s trash.
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IMF: Midde Eastern economies are buffering global shock
“QUESTION: We talked almost about all the world’s economy. We did not talk about the Middle East. So what’s the outlook for the Middle East? And what do you expect them–what kind of role you’re expecting for them to play? And if you have time, also I would like to talk about the Lebanese example, because I think if not the only country, like one of the fewest country that was not–they were not affected by the financial crisis. So Mr. Blanchard or anyone.
Thank you.MR. DECRESSIN: Yes, we see growth in the Middle East slowing from around 6 percent in 2008 to 2.5 percent in 2009 and 3.5 percent in 2010. So, this is a much better scenario than the one that we have for the euro area or the U.S., for example.
So what’s happening in the Middle East? You have first the oil price decline which is affecting the economies; and, second, the general decline in global trade. And then for some countries in the Middle East, also the financial crisis. There are some instabilities in some banking systems.
Now, the governments have, in our view, reacted very forcefully. They had large fiscal surpluses during the oil price boom in 2008 and 2007 and so they’ve built up large asset positions. And what they are now doing is they are basically running large deficits to support the economies. And in that sense, they will soften the decline that is going to happen to non-oil activity, and we think that this is very important. Saudi Arabia, I think, among the G-20 is the country that gives the largest fiscal stimulus, and rightfully so.
At the same time, countries have also pulled all the stops with respect to monetary easing that they can pull, lowering reserve requirements, for example, and so forth. They have also injected liquidity in their banking systems. Countries have put money on the table for recapitalization. So on the whole, it’s a pretty strong policy response, and I think this validates our forecast of a decline in the growth rate, but still positive growth of around 2.5 percent this year.
Now, as to Lebanon, Lebanon has been a financial center, and our reading is at least that the country will be quite heavily affected. They’ve had growth of around 8.5 percent in 2008, and they’re going down to 3 percent. So they’ve been growing a little more than the average in the Middle East in 2008, and they are falling down to approximately the same level as theaverage in terms of growth rates. And there the financial sector is playing a big role as well because it’s a big part of the economy, and with generally lower activity everywhere in the Middle East, that will also reduce the financial flows from other Middle Eastern countries to Lebanon, and it will reduce the profitability of the banking sector.”
Since Lebanon is kept afloat by financial flows from elsewhere in the region and beyond, one should keep in mind how this will affect the political climate post-elections. When the pie shrinks, there’s more fighting for a slice…
Note that in chapter two of the IMF’s report on the global crisis, there is a section called “Middle Eastern Economies Are Buffering Global Shocks”. So basically Middle Eastern countries, esp. oil producers, are providing relief for the advanced economies of Europe and North America whose financial irresponsibility caused this crisis. And many of these countries, even when they have a lot of petrodollars, are poor. (Not to mention whatever kind of pressure is being put on major OPEC producers to keep oil prices low during the recession, beyond falling demand.)
Mega-Shia conspiracy
Needless to say, I am skeptical.
Report: Egypt arrests 7 Israeli Arabs for spying for Hamas, Hezbollah
Egypt arrests over 40 suspected smugglers to Gaza
Israel says tourists in Sinai are attack targets
Pro-Hezbollah Group Arrested In Egypt
Update: Here’s Reuters’ story: Egypt holds men on suspicion of aiding Hamas-lawyer
Boomtime for knights in Lebanon
The Lebanese authorities, like every country, issue out statistics on various economic indicators. Below is the chart that shows the number of employment permits issued for various professions between 2003 and 2005. Click to get a bigger image and look at under “specialized professions,” where there is a category for “knight.” A holdover from the Crusades?
Links January 20th and January 21st
Automatically posted links for January 20th through January 21st:
- al-Qaida Solicits Questions Online – Questions include “why haven’t you opened a new front in Egypt” and more depressing idiocy
- Measuring liberty | When freedom stumbles | Economist.com – Look at the charts: in 1982 Egypt was “partly free,” now it is “not free”
- Economics focus | Selling sex | Economist.com – Interesting article on the economics of prostitution
- HAMAS ASKS EGYPT TO REOPEN RAFAH BORDER – Hamas puts Cairo on the spot
- Translating the Party of God into English – Quilty reviews Hizbullah in translation
- Review: Loaded Dice by Neill Lochery – Debunking of idea that UK Foreign Office is pro-Arab or anti-Israel
- The rise and decline of London as a pan-Arab media hub – Media critic Najm Jarrah
- An Israeli Law for Censorship of Web Comments – Elijah points to a bill in the Knesset that would enable libel laws for web comments
- Why does Johnny come marching homeless? – How Iraq veterans with psychological problems end up homeless
- Those troublesome engineers « Kafr al-Hanadwa – SP has a good post on why engineers are over-represented in Islamist groups
Links for 12-18 December
- Democracy Digest – Newsletter on democracy developments in Arab world and elsewhere, current issue has article on MB
- BBC World Service | ‘Free to Speak’ Events – Is new media the only truly independent media in the Arab world today?
- GWOT: Egypt – Negar Azimi on Egypt and the “Global War On Terror”
- Islamist calls for boycott of Egypt billionaire – “An Islamist shaikh on Monday called for a boycott of the companies of telecommunications billionaire Naguib Sawiris for speaking out against the influence of Islam on public life in Egypt.”
- YEARENDER: In Egypt, unrest will spill over into 2008 – corrected : Middle East World – In the last few months of 2007, Egypt has experienced a series of massive workers strikes, motivated by none other than poor standards of living and lack of privileges, foreboding the beginning of a possible “uprising” by Egypt’s poor.
- Incumbent Regimes and the ?King?s Dilemma? in the Arab World: Promise and Threat of Managed Reform – Carnegie report says political stagnation seen as more likely outcome if regimes not serious about reform
- Arab Reform Bulletin: December 2007 – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Beyond the Façade: Political Reform in the Arab World – New book by Carnegie Endowment
- Le Monde.fr : Le 10 était parfait pour le colonel Kadhafi – On Qadhafi’s visit to Paris coinciding with international human rights day
- Anthropologists on the Front Lines – TIME – TIME looks at debates in academic community about Human Terrain Teams
- The Press Association: Army chief among Beirut blast dead – Michel Suleiman successor killed
Links for 12 December
Automatically posted links for December 9th through December 12th:
- The Press Association: Army chief among Beirut blast dead – Michel Suleiman successor killed
- Sacrés Marocains ! – Poll on the religiosity of Moroccans (post in French, report in various languages.)
- CIA has recruited Iranians to defect – Los Angeles Times – A “handful” of defectors recruited, provided much of NIE info
- AFP: Iran drops dollar from oil deals: report – “TEHRAN (AFP) ? Major crude producer Iran has completely stopped carrying out its oil transactions in dollars, Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said on Saturday, labelling the greenback an “unreliable” currency.”
- The Chronicle of Arab/Muslim Depravity over three centuries – Angry Arab savages Michael Oren’s latest book
Links for December 3rd
Automatically posted links for December 3rd:
- Wolfowitz Back in Govt.? – Rice appoints Wolfie to International Security Advisory Board
- Younger Muslims Tune In to Upbeat Religious Message – New Egyptian televangelist is former playboy, “better than Brad Pitt”
- Enquête de l?ADFM sur le port du voile : «Le hijab est un phénomène de mode au Maroc» – Study on veil in Morocco says it’s mostly about fashion, girls’ freedom
- Citi of Arabia – WSJ hyperventilates about dirty Arabs buying 5% of big bank
- In The Tank: Did National Review Reporter Make His Stories Up? – There is a growing dispute over the veracity of reporting from Lebanon by former Marine W. Thomas Smith, Jr. who is posting reports on his blog, The Tank, published by the conservative website, National Review Online (NRO). Smith is a supporter of the war