Now not only Hizbullah, but Iranian Revolutionary Guards?

I haven’t really had time to weigh in on the Hizbullah-in-Egypt scandal, but the story continues to develop with more allegations and charges made against the Hizbullah cell, including another Shorouk scoop this morning that four Iranian Revolutionary Guards were arrested by Egyptian authorities last December, apparently entering on the country using Shia Iraqi IDs and networking with Iraqi Shia refugees in Cairo. Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit said that the public prosecutor is preparing a “surprise” when more charges are formally filed, which some think will include charges against Hassan Nasrallah himself.

The informed consensus among Egyptian commentators is that Hizbullah made a mistake in toying with Egypt’s sovereignty, but that Egypt should not exaggerate in its response either. Most center around the accusation, confirmed by Nasrallah, that Hizbullah was setting up a logistics support network for Hamas’ weapons supply line. It would be naive to assume that this is strictly all they were doing, some level of spying should also be assumed. Most commentators reject the accusation that Hizbullah was planning attacks against Israeli tourists in retaliation for the assassination of its military chief Emad Mughniyeh, although some recent information has surfaced that there may have been parallel networks operating: in addition to the ones helping Hamas, there might have also been one concentrating on the Iraqi Shia community and what one might call general purpose espionage, for instance on the Suez Canal (rather, as some newspapers have alleged, a plan to fire shoulder-launched missiles at passing ships.)

Although the brouhaha over this affair will probably have the intended effect of turning part of Egyptian public opinion against Hizbullah on nationalist grounds — and I would certainly agree that any country should be concerned about arms smuggling and espionage operations taking place — it is also highlighting Egypt’s strangehold on Hamas supply lines (financial and military) which the likes of columnists Fahmy Howeidy, the Muslim Brothers’ General Guide Mahdi Akef and others are condemning. Nasrallah, in his unusual confession that Hizbullah does have operatives in Egypt, also reiterated the helping-Hamas-as-a-duty line that has some resonance here, and not just among Islamists.

Perhaps more details on the accusations to date later…

Update: I wanted to ask readers who are more familiar with Hizbullah than I am the following: the Egyptian press reported in the last couple of days that the name of the Hizbullah handler for their Egypt operation is called Muhammad Qabalan, alleged to be the head of intelligence for Hizbullah. And that Emad Mughniyeh’s replacement as head of military operations is called Talal Hamiyeh. Anyone familiar with those names?

The Hizbullah in Egypt plot

I still don’t know what to think about yesterday’s revelation that Egyptian State Security believes, or is pretending to believe, that Hizbullah tried to set up an Egyptian cell:

CAIRO, April 8 (Reuters) – Egyptian authorities accused the Lebanese group Hezbollah on Wednesday of planning attacks inside Egypt, a development that could plunge Cairo’s relations with the Shi’ite group’s backer, Iran, to new lows.

The office of Egypt’s public prosecutor said it was investigating accusations that Hezbollah had recruited a 49-member cell with the aim of striking inside Egypt, a key U.S. ally in the Middle East.

Hezbollah angered Egypt earlier this year by accusing Cairo of complicity with Israel in its siege of the Gaza Strip.

“The public prosecutor received a note from state security about information confirmed by questioning about Hezbollah leaders sending some elements to the country to attract members to work with the organisation … with the aim of carrying out acts of aggression inside the country,” a statement by the public prosecutor said.

The statement said the group had been trying to monitor Egypt’s Suez Canal, its border with the Gaza Strip, and tourist installations in the Sinai Peninsula and sending information back to Hezbollah.

It also said the group had been establishing links with criminal elements to forge passports and setting up businesses to cover for spying activities.

It gave no details of any attacks being planned, but accused Hezbollah of trying to spread Shi’ite ideology in Egypt.

Culled from various sources, a list of what the “Hizbullah cell” was trying to achieve:

– Carry out terrorist attacks on the Shia holiday Ashura
– Rent housing near the Suez Canal to monitor the passage of ships
– Surveillance of tourist resorts in Sinai
– Procurement of explosives to manufacture bombs
– Renting housing in luxury areas to serve as safe houses
– Recruitment of Egyptians to their cause, with the aim of sending them abroad for paramilitary training
– Using businesses to fund and provide cover for their activities
– Spread Shiism in Egypt

All that seems like a tall order… While I won’t dismiss it entirely as many who have heard Egyptian security cry wolf too many times — after all there is a rich history of Arab states and non-state actors operating in each other’s turf, even if it died down in the post-Cold War world — the idea of Hizbullah suddenly deciding to implant itself in Egypt, where it has no natural constituency, is rather weird. Spying, information-gathering, destabilization — maybe. But this whole affair, like Morocco’s paranoia about Shia infiltration, reflects the deep apprehension many Western-allied Sunni regimes have about Iran, its allies like Hizbullah, and the challenge to the dominant regional order under US hegemony that has taken place since the invasion of Iraq. This, not Shiism, is what they are afraid of.

Mega-Shia conspiracy

It’s been reported today that a group of Egyptians, Israeli Arabs, Palestinians, and Lebanese have arrested in Egypt for belonging to a smuggling ring to Gaza, while Israel alleges they could be a threat to Israeli vacationers in Sinai. So this story involves Hamas, Hizbullah, Iran vs. Israel and Egypt, as well as attempts to spread Shiism in Egypt.

Needless to say, I am skeptical.

Report: Egypt arrests 7 Israeli Arabs for spying for Hamas, Hezbollah

Egypt arrests over 40 suspected smugglers to Gaza

Israel says tourists in Sinai are attack targets

Pro-Hezbollah Group Arrested In Egypt

Update: Here’s Reuters’ story: Egypt holds men on suspicion of aiding Hamas-lawyer

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