Cui bono?

Nice to see that the Daily Star Egypt, which has struggled to find its voice as a source of news on Egypt, has an extended, locally written, piece today on Talaat Sadat‘s bid to become the next opposition figure to be crushed and thrown into jail for opening up his mouth and saying things that the big boys find discomforting.

Sadat has spoken out now on a number of occasions about the October 6 1981 assassination of his uncle Anwar, requesting a parliamentary investigation into the killing and on one occasion apparently telling a press agency that the whole thing was a coup by then vice-president, now president, Hosni Mubarak and the minister of defense. He has also said that Sadat’s bodyguard made no attempt to shield him, were never investigated and have since done well in business.

Now, many who have watched the video of the event have noted a certain, well, emphasis in the reaction of the security forces supposed to be guarding the president and his deputy (personally I can’t see anything but screaming confusion, but maybe there’s more footage?), and many others have drawn conclusions from Mubarak’s reluctance to appoint a VP himself, but let’s have a quick reality check.

Considering the record of the Mubarak regime, can we really say that these are the sort of men who would kill each other just to wrap their fingers around a little more power?

0 thoughts on “Cui bono?”

  1. Ah, the old Mubarak-killed-Sadat conspiracy theory. The most elaborate theory I\’ve heard has Sadat getting annoyed with the Israelis and wanting to take them to task for their treatment of Palestinians (the Camp David agreement had a part dealing with Palestinians, it\’s often forgotten). He was about to make a fuss over it in his typical flamboyant way, which is why he cracked down on the domestic opposition in September 1980, and the Americans got wind of it. So the Americans, the Israelis, VP Mubarak and a few security/military figures agreed that it was time for him to go. Some add in here that not a lot of people liked Sadat, who was considered something of a buffoon before he became president by the other Free Officers. Anyway then they got an Islamist plant to bump him off. Pointing to the video footage and pictures of the events, they say that Mubarak looks unusually bloated — this was because he was wearing a bulletproof vest under his suit. There is also the allegation that he ducked (along with other people) shortly before the machine gun fire began. But the point of the whole thing was to install an Egyptian president who had no delusion that he was a subaltern rather than an equal to the Israelis and Americans.

    I don\’t think this conspiracy theory has any merit unless someone can do a serious study of the videos or documents from the intelligence community at the time. But surely the most damning indictment is that there is plently of documents and testimonies from Islamists confirming that they had indeed formed the idea of a plot against Sadat to punish him for his repressive ways and pro-US leanings. (And there really isn\’t any indication that Sadat was about to go on a reversal of his pro-US policy since 1975, even if he probably had more room to maneuver in some ways than Mubarak does now, despite social uprisings in 1979 and 1980).

    So Talaat Sadat is using a rather old herring to get the public\’s attention, belatedly focusing on anti-Mubarakism (surely Egypt\’s dominant political current these days) for his antics.

    Anyway that\’s my interpretation, perhaps someone can give a more detailed account of the Mubarak did it theory (the free Egyptians have a rather outlandish one on their website at http://www.angelfire.com/art3/eg05/killingSadat.htm)

  2. Great site Issandr. Full on conspiracy stuff that casts a pleasingly wide net. A highlight:

    “It is noteworthy that the Saudi government had tried numerous times to get Nasser killed in late 1950s early 1960s using elements of the Brotherhood and religious army officers. In one instance, the Saudi government paid Egyptian lieutenant Essam Khalil US$ 1 million to kill Nasser. Khalil, however, surrendered the money and himself to Nasser. To spite the Saudis, Nasser put Khalil in charge of the super secret rocket project.”

    Super secret rocket project? Keano! Did they spend the whole million dollars on this super secret Saudi-killing death-ray rocket machine?

    Ultimately the whole thing (and these guys literally allege that Mubarak killed Sadat) goes aground on the same rock that causes grief to so many keano theories–it requires the cabal to be super efficient and well-coordinated … maybe we should just leave it there?

  3. Seems to me the immediate issue isn’t whether there’s any merit to the theories, but whether Talaat has the right to call for an investigation, and whether Fathi Sorour can strip his parliamentary immunity so a military court can unceremoniously lock him up in response.

    If what he said was slander, there’s no reason those injured by the remarks couldn’t sue him for the remarks or otherwise discredit him and his accusations.

  4. I think that under the letter of the law it is an offense in Egypt to make these kinds of accusations against the president or otherwise harm national security. At least there are enough vague laws to allow much leeway in interpreting that Talaat Sadad said as illegal. So they could just accuse him of harming Egypt’s image as they did Saad Eddin Ibrahim.

  5. Assassination of Sadat: The uninvestigated and forgotten crime
    Thursday, September 01, 2005
    Click here to sign a petition to the United Nations urging it to start investigating Sadat's assassination as it investigates El-Hariri's.

    From The Free Egyptians – The Egyptian people who hail Sadat as the "hero of war and peace" have the conviction that Mubarak has purposely omitted to order 'real' investigations into the assassination of Sadat simply because he stood behind it.

    Saad El-Deen Ibraheem, Egypt's leading human rights activist, was about to form 5 years ago an independent investigative team to look into the assassination of Sadat when Mubarak framed him of a fictitious crime and put him behind bars for 3 years, instead of 7 after the US intervention.

    Also, 2 years ago, Mubarak was very furious that the image of Sadat's body as riddled with bullets was leaked and published for the first time ever after the assassination of Sadat in a local independent weekly newspaper. Mubarak had the chief editor fired. Republishing of the image by any newspaper has been banned.

    Mubarak does have every good reason for suppressing information about Sadat's murder and for refusing to order full scale independent, transparent investigation into the matter.

    According to witness accounts published in the Egyptian weekly Al-Araby Al-Nasery on June 19, 2005, Sadat had sacked Mubarak but told him to remain in office until Sadat found a replacement. Early on the morning of October 6, assassination day, Sadat had appointed the former deputy prime minister, Dr. Abdel Kader Hatem, as vice president in Mubarak's place. Sadat was supposed to have signed a presidential decree to this effect after the parade. Al-Araby Al-Nasery published a photo of Sadat shaking hands with Dr. Hatem on the morning of October 6. This would be the first time that such a photo comes to light. According to the said newspaper, Sadat was angry with Mubarak because the later had been making secret contacts with the military behind Sadat's back. Other reports say that Sadat also had been made aware of the fact that Mubarak was secretly contacting the Saudi government. The Saudi government had severed all relations with the Egyptian government following the signing of peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in March 1979. The fanatic Saudi religious establishment which is closely connected to the royal family had condemned Sadat to death for making peace with "the Jews, the enemies of Allah." Sadat was defiant and said "the Saudis were but a bunch trash nomads before we cleaned and educated them." The Saudi royal family responded by saying that Saudi Arabia would never have anything to do with Egypt so long as Sadat remained in power.

    Sadat had in a surprise and unexplainable move appointed in 1975 general Hosni Mubarak, the hitherto commander of the Egyptian air force, as vice president. It was reported then that Sadat's influential wife, Jehan, had recommended Mubarak for the post. Sadat's half-British wife and Mubarak's half-British wife are cousins. Mubarak, however, has spread the rumor that the US government imposed him on Sadat. Mubarak still uses this rumor to promote the other rumor that the US government was behind the assassination of Sadat.

    To consolidate his position which was thought to be too big for him by almost every Egyptian, newly appointed vice president Mubarak had begun almost immediately to appoint his confidants in sensitive positions in the military, the police, secret service and in the administration.

    One such confidant was Mubarak's old friend colonel Abu Ghazala. Abu Ghazala was only the commander of the artillery unit of the 2nd army when Mubarak became vice president. Only 2 years later Mubarak appointed Abu Ghazala military attaché to Washington as a first step in a spectacular advancement plan Mubarak devised for Abu Ghazala. It is noteworthy that Mubarak also appointed his half-British brother-in-law, wing commander Mounir Sabet, the head of the arms procurement office in Washington. However, 3 years later, in 1980, General Ahmed Badawi, the then Minister of defense, recalled Abu Ghazala from Washington to assume the post of director of military intelligence. As this interfered with Mubarak's advancement plan for Abu Ghazala, Mubarak told Abu Ghazala to disobey the transfer order and remain in Washington. In January 1981, Mubarak appointed Abu Ghazala chairman of chiefs of staff, a post only second to the minister of defense. On March 6, 1981, the minister of defense and archenemy of Mubarak along with 13 high ranking military personnel died in a highly controversial and questionable helicopter crash. Abu Ghazala was supposed to be on the the plan with the minister of defense but his trip was cancelled at the last minutes on orders by vice president Mubarak. Abu Ghazala succeeded general Badawi as minister of defense. So, Mubarak advanced Abu Ghazala from a colonel to minister of defense in only 4 years passing over and bypassing hundreds in the chain of command.

    As minister of defense and general commander of the armed forces, Abu Ghazala busied himself immediately he took office with the preparation for annual military parade commemorating the Yom-Kippur War which was due only 6 months thence.

    The internal political situation in Egypt was boiling and heading to a disaster at the time. The fanatic anti-Jewish, anti-peace Wahabi royal family and religious establishment of Saudi Arabia which had officially declared Jihad following the signing of peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in March 1979 had thrown all its economic and political weight behind a plan aimed at damaging peace and punishing Sadat to make an example of him in order to deter any Arab or Muslim ruler from making peace with Israel in the future. The Saudi government which had already gained strong foothold on the political, economic, religious and cultural life in Egypt since Nasser's death used its connections and influence with the Islamic groups, mass media and officials and politicians that had been on the generous payroll of the Saudi government with the idea of mobilizing the Egyptian public opinion against Sadat and peace in order to destabilize and overthrow Sadat's regime. Meanwhile, the Saudi, Iraqi and other Arab governments formed the so-called rejections front whose main objective was to frustrate peace. Egypt's membership in the Arab league was suspended. Sadat had become completely isolated in the Arab and Muslim world. In July 1981, crown prince Fahd declared his peace initiative as an alternative to peace between Egypt and Israel. The initiative was rejected by both Egypt and Israel. The Saudis felt the need to do something fast for the fear that other Arab countries might be tempted to follow Sadat's example. They also feared that Sadat might try to destabilize their own regime using his strong ties with the US and Israel. To promptly rid the Arabs and Muslims of 'traitor and kafer (idolater) Sadat,' the Saudi-controlled Islamic groups of Egypt( the Brotherhood, Jihad and Jamaa Islamya- popularly dubbed in Egypt the Saudi 5th column) which were mobilizing for action against Sadat openly condemned Sadat to death as a "kafir who makes peace with the enemies of Allah". It is noteworthy that the Saudi government had tried numerous times to get Nasser killed in late 1950s early 1960s using elements of the Brotherhood and religious army officers. In one instance, the Saudi government paid Egyptian lieutenant Essam Khalil US$ 1 million to kill Nasser. Khalil, however, surrendered the money and himself to Nasser. To spite the Saudis, Nasser put Khalil in charge of the super secret rocket project. Therefore, Sadat panicked and on Mubarak's advice ordered on September 4, 1981, the roundup of all the religious leaders along with his major political opponents, including journalists, writers, politicians and party leaders. That did not eliminate the threat
    on Sadat's life. According to the then minister of interior, El-Nabawi Ismail, the state security agency (Mabaheth) reported that it was in a possession of a video film showing shooting training in the desert by elements of Jamaa Islamya. He also said that there were credible and confirmed reports that various Islamic groups would shoot Sadat during the annual parade of October 6th. Almost everyone in the country knew that Islamic extremists would try to assassinate Sadat during the parade. Why were not those practicing to kill the president rounded up too?

    In those hectic and paranoid days how could anyone come close enough to Sadat to shoot him. During the parade, Sadat had four layers of security: personal bodyguards, who were within 15 meters of Sadat; the Republican (Presidential) Guard, a military unit of commandos selected to guard the president, which was stationed outside the 15 meters; the Ministry of Interior and Central Security Services (Amn al-Markazy), which provided rooftop surveillance and roadside security for Sadat's motorcade; and other civilian police and military guards.

    Despite this redundantly tough security, the assassins were able to get within 15 meters of Sadat and kill him.

    By August 6, 1981, Mubarak had replaced all Sadat's men in key and sensitive positions by his own. The minister of defense, the minister of interior, the director of general intelligence, the chairman of chiefs of staff, the director of military intelligence and the director of the state security directorate , to name a few, were now Mubarak's men.

    The assassins participated in the parade, though they were not in the military, save for their leader, lieutenant Islamboly, who had been banned in the previous 3 years from participating in the parade for security reasons( his elder brother was serving time in prison for his affiliation with Jamaa Islamya.)

    The assassins could not have avoided all the extraordinarily tough security hurdles on their own. Even if they manage to participate in the parade, they could not have been cleared through 10 checking points with live ammunition, grenades and firing pins. How can the 5 of them overpower Sadat's 150 guards who seal off completely a circle around the president whose radius exceeds 15m? As the assassins were able to overcome all these impenetrable defenses with so much ease, then they must have been aided and abetted by accomplices that are very highly placed in the government. One guess who they were by examining the nature of logistical and intelligence assistance given to the assassins to ensure that they succeed in killing Sadat:

    1. The ban on lieutenant Islamboly which was in force for 3 years because he was considered a serious security risk was suddenly lifted without explanation. In fact, he received in mid-August strict orders from the director of the military intelligence to participate in the parade. As an officer in artillery regiment 333, Islamboly's role was to be seated in the cabin of a lorry that tows a large cannon as he used to 3 years before. On the open deck of the lorry, 4 soldiers were to be seated.

    2. After having been cleared to participate in the parade, Islamboly was approached by elements of Jamaa Islamya who informed him that he was chosen to carry our a Jihadi ( martyrdom) mission. They introduced him to 4 Jihadis who had just completed military service. One of them, Hussein Ali, who used to be a sniper in the army was in fact the shooting champion of the armed forces. The plan was for Islamboly to replace the original 4 participating soldiers from his unit by the 4 assassins.

    3. The 4 assassins and others had been practicing in the desert the shooting of Sadat at the parade. These shooting exercises were made under the supervision and protection of the police. The then minister of interior, Ismaiel, admitted that Mabaheth was in possession of video films of these exercises.

    4. Three days before the parade Islamboly was able to dismiss the 4 soldiers from his unit who were assigned to ride the lorry with him at the parade. He gave each of them a 4-day sick leave. Islamboly sneaked the 4 assassins in the barracks impersonating the dismissed 4 soldiers where they stayed for 3 days and participated in the final rehearsals for the parade.

    5. Live ammunition and firing pins were removed from weaponry issued to all personnel participating in the parade. As an added security measure, 10 check points were set up by the military police and intelligence along the road leading to the parade area to check papers and search for live ammunition and firing pins. Notwithstanding, the 5 assassins whose lorry was laden with grenades, machine guns with firing pins and live bullets were cleared through all the 10 check points.

    6. In view of the shaky security situation in those days, president Sadat, vice president Mubarak and defense minister Abu Ghazala were to wear bullet proof vests under their Nazi-style uniform. In addition, the 150 security guards that surrounded Sadat made it impossible for any potential assassin to get within 15 meters of the president without getting killed or arrested. The wall of the reviewing stand behind which Sadat was seated afforded the president a perfect cover against shooting. If Sadat dived behind the wall, no one can shoot him from the other side of the wall as the wall is too high (180 cm) and too thick (80 cm). Most importantly, how to guarantee that Mubarak, sitting on Sadat's right, and Abu Ghazala, sitting on Sadat's left, would not get hurt in the shooting.

    To overcome these obstacles, the following happened:

    – Sadat's 150 US-trained security guards were dismissed a few minutes before the lorry carrying the assassins pulled over right in front of the podium. they were ordered to deploy behind the podium. They were told the assassins were to attack the back of the podium.

    – Though the ground parade was still in progress, the show in the air began. This attracted everyone's gaze upward just at the time 5 assassins jumped from their army lorry only meters from the podium. The air force acrobatics was timed to begin with the arrival of artillery units in front of the main reviewing stand.

    – Sadat was told by his vice president and defense minister to stand up to salute back the officer who was approaching the podium after dismounting from the canon-towing lorry. As Sadat stood up, three, or four, things happened simultaneously. The approaching officer doubled back to fetch grenades and machine gun from the lorry. The former shooting champion of the armed forces who was sitting on the open deck of the lorry stood up and shot Sadat in the neck because he knew beforehand that Sadat would wear bullet proof vest. Both Mubarak and Abu Ghazala dived quickly for cover and crawled as far away from Sadat's falling body as possible. As can be seen from the image of Sadat's body which was classified for over 22 years until leaked by some disgruntled intelligence elements to a local opposition newspaper, Sadat fell on his back after he was shot in the neck and this is evidenced by wounds which are concentrated in his lower abdomen and upper chest. But what about the wounds on his sides which were obviously caused by smaller caliber bullets. The assassins were using 7.62mm caliber submachine guns. Such discrepancies explain why Mubarak suppressed picture of Sadat's body along with other information for a long time So, Mubarak and/or Abu Ghazala must have shot Sadat with small pistols in the commotion to make sure he died.

    – someone left a chair on the other side of the podium wall from Sadat on which Islamboly stood and was able to spray Sadat's body with his machine gun. Without the chair, Islamboly could not aim at Sadat.

    – Though the assassins appeared to be shooting indiscriminately shooting at everyone in the podium, they shouted to both Mubarak and Abu Ghazala to stay out of harm's way. The assassin Atta Tayel shouted to Abu Ghazala: " get away!." Co-assassin Abdel Hameed Abdel Aa
    l shouted to Mubarak when their eyes met: "it is not you we are after. It is the Pharaoh whom we want." This is highly uncharacteristic because fanatic Islamists consider "those who belong to idolater regime" to be idolaters themselves and deserve to be killed. If they wanted Sadat only, why did they kill 7 more?

    Other deceptive tactics employed at the parade included the breakdown of three vehicles right in front of the main reviewing stand 10, 15 and 20 minutes into the parade respectively. When the assassins' lorry pulled over in front of the podium those who weren't gazing at the sky to watch the air show assumed that the lorry had broken down.

    If Mubarak was not behind all that, he would have:

    1. Sacked Abu Ghazala for being responsible for what happened to the president at the parade.

    2. Formed an independent commission to conduct a full scale investigation into the assassination of the president.

    Mubarak did the opposite. He promoted Abu Ghazala to field marshal and deputy prime minister as if to reward him for the killing of Sadat. Mubarak released from prison shortly after the assassination of Sadat Omar El-Telmisani, Brotherhood leader, along with other Islamic group leaders and Muslim extremists who were all imprisoned only weeks earlier by Sadat. Did Mubarak reward them for killing Sadat? Also, Mubarak has prevented independent investigations into the killing of Sadat and suppressed vital information pertaining to the crime and concealed or destroyed vital evidence in the case. The most notable evidence which Mubarak has concealed or destroyed is the footage of the parade shot by the Egyptian state-owned television station. It shows Sadat being gestured by both Mubarak and Abu Ghazala to stand up to salute the young officer who was approaching the podium. It shows both Mubarak and Abu Ghazala going down as Sadat rose. There is another equally important piece of evidence that is missing and feared destroyed. It is the video film taken of 4 of Sadat's killers along with others while training in the desert for the killing of Sadat one month before the parade. The former minister of interior, El-Nabawi Ismaiel, said on several occasions that the state security directorate ( Mabaheth) was in possession of this video tape. He also said that Sadat's 4 killers had been under close surveillance by Mabaheth for 2 weeks before the parade.

    The plan for the assassination of Sadat must have been the work of an able military planner. He prepared and executed it as a full-fledged war game or maneuver involving ground, air and special forces. He left nothing to chance and took care of every minute detail. He made sure that each and every participant understood and practiced his part well. They must have used a mock up podium while practicing in the desert. Even the aftermath was not neglected. The first thing the police and other security forces did immediately after the shooting stopped was to confiscate and destroy films and videos taken of the parade by photographers and news agencies.

    Evidence destruction has begun almost immediately. What contributed to the absence of films showing the actual killing of Sadat was timing the air show to take place at the time the assassins' lorry pulled over in front of the podium. The deafening thunderous sound of a big formation of Mirages flying at a very low altitude and appearing suddenly from behind the podium must have overwhelmed and startled everyone present, including photographers and journalists, and forced him to gaze upward. One Egyptian television camera, however, which is allocated by order for the president alone in any national event was focused on him all the time. It captured everything, including the rise of Sadat and the fall of both Mubarak and Abu Ghazala.

    Though this film is missing, a lot of people saw it. In fact there is enough evidence in this case to bring charges against Mubarak, Abu Ghazala and tens of coconspirators. Mubarak once admitted implicitly killing Sadat. In 1984, in answering a question at a local press conference as to why he had not appointed a vice president, Mubarak said: "I did not inherit it.." In English, this amounts to:" I took it by force."

    Sadat was a world great leader and his assassination cannot go uninvestigated and unpunished. We therefore urge the United Nations to delegate an investigative commission to Egypt to investigate the killing of Sadat. Sadat is no less a leader than late Hariri of Lebanon and as such Sadat's assassination must be accorded the same international sympathy, attention and investigation.

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