This has been one of the cornerstones of the reform debate in the Arab world as well: what is the role for the United States, or any outsiders for that matter, in pressing for political reform inside Egypt and other Arab countries? Ukraine now provides a formula. If Egypt’s opposition hopes to repeat the Ukrainian model here, it will need to pave the way for protests against the President himself. Afterall, that’s what will be demanded of the people on election day 2005 if they are going to protest against the reelection of Mubarak in fraudulent elections. Yesterday’s demonstration showed that it can be done.
Now to Israel-Egyptian relations. On December 5 Egypt released the convicted Israeli spy Azzam Azzam, Egypt is scheduled to sign a trade deal with Israel tomorrow, and rumors have been going around that Egypt will return its ambassador to Tel Aviv. In addition, Israeli Embassy spokesperson Israel Tikochinski appeared on Egyptian television for the first time last week. Egypt’s Mubarak is coming up for reelection in Fall 2005. With Mubarak aging, rumors swirling about his son Gamal’s ambitions, and expectations for the US to back its democratization rhetoric with its closest Arab ally, the 2005 Egyptian presidential elections promise to be a closely watched affair. Bush publicly called on Egypt to lead the way towards democratization in Fall 2003. It is hard for me to imagine the regime here getting away with the same sort of antics that occurred in the 1995 and the 2000 elections. The opposition is more emboldened than it has ever been, and external pressure is increasing. However, if Mubarak suddenly proves himself willing to make bold moves on the Israel front then that could be the one thing that would convince the Bush administration and “the international peace process industry” to turn a blind eye to another sham election in Egypt, even if the opposition plays the Ukraine gambit and manages to mobilize thousands of protesters.
Don’t forget that Gamal was feted in Washington recently.
Nice thoughts, but come on, let’s remember that the most powerful “popular” force on the streets of Egypt are still the various stripes of Islamists. Leftists might get lucky and be able to start a people-power movement for a real election, but the USG and the Mubaraks know perfectly well who would win it. So what do you do, have the US push for a “half-free” election wherein Gamal is allowed to run against whichever leftie emerges most prominent from the rallies that force the election, but leave 7izb al-3mal and the Ikhwan stewing? Yeah, that’ll go down real well with convincing folks that there’s real democracy and that the lefties aren’t just western lap dogs. Don’t get me wrong, I admire many of these folks on the left who are trying very bravely to pry open political space for freedom, but half-measures leave them open to such criticisms while full openings don’t get the USG what they want, thus leaving the Mubaraks of the world grinning or whispering I-told-you-sos. If there’s going to be a democratic transition, it’s gonna be painful for the leftie-secularists because they’ll have to accept an era of Islamist-tinged rule first and perhaps for some time. Seems to me there should first be an acceptance that in a free set of elections that is probably an inevitable fact, and that the left should then prepare for how to deal with it by devising strategies and deals with the NDP and Ikhwan that will preserve enough real political freedom in that era so that if a time does come that the popular tide turns from the Islamists to the westernized-lefties, that there will still be enough genuine political freedom for them to run and win such a campaign. I think that is emminently feasible, but it will take some hard work to get there. Heck, who knows, maybe if the left latches on to enough populist rhetoric they’d be able to do better sooner than they think.
Charles,
I also wonder whether a crucial difference between Ukraine and Egypt is in the electoral system. First, since the election of the president is not direct, there’s a different dynamic at stake then over there. Secondly, the problem in Egypt in the last parliamentary election was not particularly electoral fraud (since there were for the first time decent judicial oversight of the elections) but rather that security forces were filtering who could get into the voting stations. Intimidation, not technical fraud, is the motus operandi here.
Of course there could be mass protests against the presence of security forces in the first place. But that would mean taking on that security presence in some way, which will scare a lot of people away. There is also a wider program of electoral participation, which is extremely low precisely because of that intimidation. Finally, the NDP candidates can leverage the power of being the goverment party by pressure public servants to go vote for them — as they did in Cairo’s central Qasr Al Aini district by taking a busfull of people from the Ministry of Information to the voting booths. The bus was covered in NDP banners. And even then, the NDP candidate, the reformist Hossam Badrawi, only got some 3000 votes. His main opponent, Hisham Kassem (publisher of the defunct Cairo Times and president of the Egyptian Organization of Human Rights) got a mere 300 votes. That’s a pretty pathetic turnout in the center of the capital (where many of the wealthiest and most educated people live) and reflects the level of depoliticization you have in Egypt. Obviously the Ukrainians care more about politics.
Clearly they are countless differences between Egypt and Ukraine. But fraud comes in many forms, including single candidate referendums. The point is that, if there aren’t some concessions to opposition demands, is the public prepared to protest, and can those protests trigger any change? Yes, protests in Cairo would demand a confrontation with security, and while the security presence here is surely much greater than in Ukraine, there was still a period where clashes with security seemed imminent in Ukraine. Again, see fistfulofeuros.net for their coverage of the events immediately following the first protests in Kiev. Perhaps you’re right and I’m being a touch optimistic. The thought of hundreds of thousands of Egyptians taking to the streets to protest sham elections seems pretty unlikely. But then again, read this Nov 25 post from Kiev blogger Tulipgirl:
“Quite recently I didn’t believe that my people able to resist to violence and humiliation. 2 month ago I guessed that I live in the worst country in the world. I was oppressed when I could not see a dignity in my fellow citizens, willingness to freedom and happiness. I considered that there are no passionaries in my country, and even when they appear all the rest start make propaganda: “they just have nothing to do” or “they just want to take the power”. And for me was obviously that there are difference between Ukrainians who say “What can I do?…” and for example Americans who say “Just do it!” I hated that strong negative feeling rising inside me every time when I saw alcoholics or drug addicts urinating at a doorway, when I saw students who are timid to reject extortion of theirs corrupted professors, when I saw animal obedience of journalists and governmental administrators toward theirs masters who even don’t pay them enough.
November, 22 I started to be really proud of my co-citizens. Now I can see that they are not passive mammals who want just to dig comfortable burrow, to generate they own posterity and to finish life in poverty, pretending that there is no another way. Since November, 22 there are not a crowd on the main square of my country. This is the PEOPLE. This is the NATION. Love, faith and hope filled up a whole space of capital of my country and warm these people who spend days and nights on the frost snowing streets instead to lie down on the sofa and watch “tamed” TV channels chewing sausage┘
And now I know for sure that there are a lot of us. But we are not only the force who able to be the opposition to criminals and cads. It can’t be enough for me, I think. We are the people in the most exalted and humane sense of this word. And not only number turns us to be the force, but exactly these LOVE, FAITH and HOPE which live in everyone now.
Ukrainians, I am happy that I was so wrong about you before!”
–Olena Kornyeyeva, Ukrainian
November 25, 2004
Beware the comparison with the Ukraine. There is actually a rather large ethnic_cultural rift in the Ukraine, the west being Catholic and Ukrainian-speaking, the east Orthodox and Russian-speaking.
The crowds in Kiev were western Ukrainians, who have been longing for an association with the West for hundreds of years, (to the point of perversely joining the SS in droves during WWII to serve as concentration camp personnel). They have separatist aspirations; I would says that the “Baktivchina” movement led by Julia Timochenko and the “Our Ukraine” movement are hardly pan-national.
The western Ukrainians have some real leverage; they represent a separatist threat, with the backing of mogul Julia Timoshenko, the United States (Yushenko’s wife is an ex-US diplomat) and Poland.
While it was heartening to see determined people challenge the flawed presidental election in the streets–two weeks outdoors in the bitter cold–there is that ultra ethno-nationalist character to events.
The crisis was resolved in a conference of powers–Russia, Lithuania, Poland, EU, Czech Republic and Ukrainian political leaders– because of a very real threat of division and Russian intervention.
So, I’d say fair-minded Egyptian political reformers have a much, much more dangerous task because Mubarek is not challenged from outside the country and the existence of a ruthless “security” cabal, er apparatus.
What information I have been able to glean while here in Russia I can share two perceptions, one from the Russian press (not a bastion of independent reporting) and one from small, ex-pat newspapers who enjoy significant more leeway in their writing.
First, from mainstream media, it is widely reported that the current separatist movements are all a product of recent events and are not serious threats to Ukrainian cohesion. What reporting I have seen has all focused on the eastern regions Russian loyalty, primarily in Donetsk, Yanukovich’s hometown and the epicenter of violent anti-Yushchenko demonstrations.
Second, articles and editorials in a few ex-pat papers make convincing arguments that suggest United States’ involvement goes further than just verbal support. Many people familiar with Ukraine’s opposition don’t seem to believe they are capable of organizing so effectively (the orange theme, tents, food, warm drinks etc…Those familiar with the Arab world surely can understand why such an organizational task might not be homegrown). They also point to the presence of Georgians with experience in their own velvet revolution just one year ago. If these articles and editorials are to be believed then the United States government is capable of, and willing to, support protests and challenges currently being seen in Ukraine. The question then becomes, would they be willing to do such a thing in Egypt where popular elections might result in an Islamist government (however moderate), a result that this current administration seems unlikely to encourage.