The editor of Cairo’s Campus Magazine has a telling endorsement in this week’s issue. For those of you unfamiliar with Campus, it’s a free, English language, weekly magazine targetting upper class Egyptian youth. It’s almost all fluff, and almost never has anything remotely political. It calls itself “The voice of our generation.” Writes the editor in this week’s issue: “Anyone who knows me knows that I support Gamal Mubarak, the young, intelligent visionary definitely has my vote… assuming there is a vote.”
Gamal is winning people over, convincing many in the crucial echelons of Egyptian society that he is the real deal, and the best choice for the future.
If I can throw out a generalized statement……
Political acceptance is mostly about expanding and redstributing a regime’s power. Anyone watching the NDP’s policies secretariat over the past two years can safely argue that 1) the ps is the major political force in the country 2) even when cosmetic reforms are initiated, Gamal and the Secretariat receive “heaps of praise by NDP MPs” (naturally, the 88/9-percent majority). 3) the secretariat and its head are structurally inserting themselves in a poorly institutionalized arena of personalities buttressed by extensive patronage networks. In this sort of scenario, it is quite difficult to depose structurally engrained entities.
Now, also take into consideration….
During my field research, I had two ps and one former member tell me that “not a single initiative proposed by Gamal was been opposed by a single member on the secretariat when it came time to vote. Basically there is discussion, where some guardedly oppose but when it comes time to be counted, everyone is standing – whether they wish to or not- on the ps’s side.”
The public has responded save the demos since hte beginning of the war on Iraq. Despite the protesters, it is like a damned competition to see who can overtly place their public loyalty on the table.
We are getting to a point that succession is a done-deal. Ukraine could result, the US could invade, or a coup could happen…..but if they were taking bets on this in Vegas, my money would be on the secretariat. They are making themselves (and with a little help from above – not divine) the ONLY alternative. Hence, expanding their power among potential constituents and redistributing it in the exisiting political relationships.
As for the inheritence stuff….we have all joked for a long time – on 1 January 04 when the president addressed the nation debunking the rumor, he never ruled out the possibility of being constitutionally elected.
Josh – please continue to make ‘generalised statements’ 🙂
Gamal’s succession prospects were clearer when Nazif took office – the technocrat is quickly becoming the poster child of success, and Gamal fits that bill. For the vast majority of Egyptians who fear the turmoil of a complete political shift, Gamal makes all the sense in the world.
For those who’d rather die than see communists and Islamists take power, Gamal seems like the only alternative.
I’m not sure what’s worse – our fear of the unknown (which indicates a specific psychological barrier) or our willingness to accept a certain degree of despotism.
Hellme:
I am not sure it is an Egyptian desire “to accept a certain degree of despotism” as it is a reaction to the exclusionary regime-defined rules of the game.
Gamal seems like a logical choice via the socialists and Islamists because of the marketing for him and against the others. If he looks like the only alternative, it is because it was intended to be so.
No political establishment ever proffers a real discernable choice/option to its people. So to keep everyone on board, there can be only one coin (or two sides of the same coin like in the US).
The reason I say that Egyptians in general have a tendency to accept subjugation comes from my own interpretation of a social phenomenon that manifests itself even outside Egypt and under the rule of much less ‘despotic’ rule – expatriated Egyptians are rarely active participants in the political process in general, regardless of context. Of course, I could be generalising and I could be very wrong, in which case I would wish you were right.
As for Gamal’s marketing – I don’t think the Islamists and socialists need anyone marketing against them, they do that aptly enough. I am very aware of the socialist movement in Egypt, and I can assure you that, in my opinion, they would only serve to introduce a different set of problems. The same applies to the Islamists, currently being forced to moderate their views to become palatable. If they were to take power, such a drive to ‘market’ themselves would fade, and they would – for a lack of a better way to describe this – show their true colours.
The lack of choice, I believe, is a by product of both decades of rule that did not encourage political freedom, and an acute lack of intellectual and political thought in general. For years now, the Egyptian opposition establishment has been riddled with internal rifts, empty slogans and self-possessed infatuation. I think there is no one to blame here but the Egyptians themselves.
i don’t know. when i was talking with europeans embassy staff in cairo the last time, they believed, that gamal has no chance, as the military and his own father oppose him. his father supposedly only tolerates him, because his mother is protecting him. but maybe things will turn out differently. maybe the old men of the power circles around hosni will understand, that a youngsta must succeed hosni, as otherwise the west and their own people might revolt.
moritz
post scriptum: not on the article, but on the person, who wrote it 🙂 hi charles. it’s great to see, that more people start posting at arabist.net and i hope to see many interesting articles from you. (i know i am very late with this, but i missed the initial post, where you were introduced.)
moritz
Reminds me of the book that came out a while back about Gamal being the great white hope of Egyptian liberalism — and that it would be “unfair” to discriminate against him for succession simply because he happens to be the current president’s son.
Re: Gamal’s uninterrupted rise to power.
I accept that Gamal is now the surest thing for the leadership, and hear that many in the military (who were still sceptical a year ago) are coming round the idea that Gamal is the best man for the job. A lot of energy has been spent over the past three or four years to present the NDP, its policy secretariat and even the cabinet as serious political institutions with some inate value of their own.
However, I think that the brief interregnum this summer, when Hosni was in Germany, and Atef Obeid was the lame duck Prime Minister, revealed the fundamental weakness of this process. Obeid was all but fired before Hosni left for Germany, and Safwat Sherif was removed days after he arrived in Germany. For over two weeks (a long time for an Arab leader to be away from home), Egypt was nominally ruled by a lame duck prime minister. So who was in charge? Omar Suleiman? Tantawi (the general)? Adli?
It doesn’t say much for the development of the PS and other revived institutions that Egypt was run for several weeks, while rumours circulated about the president’s death, by persons unknown.
Gamal and his friends are clearly going to be closely supervised by these persons unknown after the succession.