I’ve long been fascinated with Qatar’s foreign policy in recent years, which appears to be driven by a need to hedge its bets (hosting a US military base, good relations with Iran, funding al-Jazeera, pissing off the Saudis every now and then…) and the personalities of its emir and his cousin the foreign minister. Here are some recent articles that highlight how perilous the acrobatic acts from Doha are starting to look like, particularly as we see a major Egyptian-Saudi push for “Arab unity” at the upcoming Doha summit (unity, that is, behind the Egyptian initiative to reconcile Hamas and Fatah, with the latter having the upper hand.) All this as gas prices plummet and sovereign funds pause to take stock of the global financial crisis…
- Qatar charts a new but worrying course
- Qatar fund plans 6-month pause, then strategy switch
- Nakilat sails on to secure gas supply
That last article points out Qatar is still set to see high GDP growth and is secure as the world’s first supplier of liquified natural gas. Still, if European demand significantly weakens, and the infant world LNG market hits its first glut.
One thing that’s still not clear to me is the answer to the question — beyond remaining secure from Saudi influence – what does Qatar want?
Is it the first or the largest supplier of LNG?
Largest, I believe, in terms of gas reserves and the largest exporter of LNG (i.e. first in rank among LNG exporters.)
Qatar's one to watch.
What I like most is that of all GCC states it's the one not worried about Iran (although the two compete over regional LNG export contracts). One distant day it will lead GCC – Iran detente, much needed to reduce Saudi influence.
(Think Qatar has third-largest natural gas reserves (after Russia and Iran), but it's largest LNG exporter.)