Major strike at Nile Delta factory

Hossam is writing a lot today about a massive strike taking place at Ghazl el-Mahalla, apparently the biggest such strike at a major textile factory since the beginning of the year. He has videos and complains the issue is not getting international press coverage. From an activist’s account:

After the first day of the strike and sit-in, the picture inside the factory is really amazing. 10,000 people breaking the fast together in Tala’at Harb Sq, located inside the company compound. It’s a scene, which I find no words to describe it with….

The government has started to present some compromises via the head of the Factory Union Committee Seddiq Siyam, in exchange for disbanding the strike. But the stupid forgot he was asking this (strike suspension) while the workers’ emotions and zeal are running at the highest peak you can imagine.. The inevitable happened.. the dude was screwed. The workers almost killed him, seriously I’m not joking. But he was saved at the last moment by the strike leaders.

Al-Masri al-Youm has coverage of the strike, saying there are 27,000 workers partaking (which might make it the biggest strike ever) who are protesting the non-payment of performance-related bonuses. They have made eight demands, including one of political significance such as the removal of the company’s chairman and the withdrawing confidence from their representatives in the official (state-controlled) union — a step that would encourage the formation of independent, parallel union structures. No wonder considering the official union said the strike was illegal and blamed the Muslim Brotherhood and other opposition political movements was behind the strike.

One might ask whether this is going to be different than any previous strike, where generally the government made major concessions fairly quickly. Perhaps not, but it strikes me [no pun intended] that every time you have this kind of situation you have the potential for things to get out of hand and escalate unpredictably…

Update: Hossam has some more thoughts on making the link between economic demands and political change.

Tahawy in Forward on MB

Mona al-Tahawy has a personal story of dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood and explains why she backs their political rights even as she (rightly) finds their views distasteful: I Will Stand Up for the Muslim Brotherhood.

I think, even more than the arrests, the sign that there is really a fierce campaign taking place against the MB is that last week they were prevented from hosting their annual Ramadan iftar, which only two years ago was being attended by NDP figures. Symbolically, it is saying that they are considered beyond the pale, which was not the case not so long ago.

Investor confidence and the succession issue in Egypt

One of the interesting things that has come out of the recent rumors that Mubarak was on death’s door is that, for the first time publicly at least, a link is being made between presidential succession in Egypt and investor confidence. Quite aside from ordinary Egyptians on Facebook or newspaper editors, this is now an open subject of discuss for the financial press and analysts. This Reuters story from earlier this month quotes a Standard & Poors ratings director as saying this has kept Egypt’s rating down:

But Egypt has not made clear what would happen to the reform process if Mubarak, 79, who has ruled for a quarter century, leaves office, Farouk Soussa said in an interview.

“The main constraint at the moment is the question of succession,” Soussa said. “Trying to determine what will happen on key policy issues is like gazing into a crystal ball, and it shouldn’t be that way.”

Standard & Poor’s rates Egypt BB+ for foreign currency and BBB- for local currency with a stable outlook.

Likewise, a Forbes story today predicts investor worry about the post-Mubarak period, considering that Egypt’s own Central Bank (foolishly?) has said that the recent rumors cost a loss of $350 million:

“Foreign investment really has to do with the stability of the country,” said Arsene Aka, analyst with Global Insight. Although he found the central bank’s readiness to put a figure on the cost of freedom of speech “a bit disturbing,” he admitted that from an economic standpoint, it did make sense.

According to Aka, the $350 million figure was probably a rough calculation of what a few days’ rumors could cost Egypt’s already impressive achievement of $9 billion in foreign direct investment so far this year. “If Mubarak dies, investment will halve,” he warned.

My own experience in talking to Egyptian businessmen is that they are relatively confident a transition will take place without any serious disturbance to the country’s economic policy. But, arguably, the way Egypt is currently run (with an increasingly obvious delegation of economic decisions from the presidency to Gamal Mubarak and the Nazif cabinet) is not exactly optimal, especially since getting a presidential go-ahead is sometimes necessary for major investment projects. Investors have complained of inexplicable delays in decision-making, and I’ve even heard of cases where an investor with cash in hand simply left because he was tired on waiting for clearance from the presidency.
The question is, at what point does it become necessary for the country’s economic stability that a clear succession plan (if not a specific successor) be outlined? Or will financial analysts and investors will continue to make educated guesses (but in the end still quite uninformed guesses since there is little solid information) about Gamal Mubarak or Omar Suleiman scenarios? Sure, Egypt’s not badly at all in terms of attracting investment despite the current uncertainty, with some long-term projects (e.g. petrochemicals, LNG, etc.) seeing the light of the day, but I’ve often wondered why the succession issue was not a major concern of investors, or rather why most were pretty confident succession would mostly provide continuity with current economic reform policies. Perhaps that is now changing.

Egyptian torture NGO under threat

Speaking of crackdowns in Egypt, it seems that NGOs working on torture are also being targeted:

CAIRO, Sept 13 (Reuters) – Egypt has told a rights group that aids torture victims it will be shut down for financial misdeeds, the group said on Thursday, in what activists called a government effort to quash criticism.

The Association for Human Rights Legal Aid (AHRLA) said it had received notice it was being dissolved and its assets seized over accusations it had accepted foreign funding without government approval. AHRLA denied any wrongdoing.

Egyptian and international human rights groups dismissed the accusations as political cover for an attempt to silence a group that has raised embarrassing torture cases in court. Government officials had no immediate comment.

More info in Arabic after the jump on planned demo in support on AHRLA.
Continue reading Egyptian torture NGO under threat

Egypt: A war on the press?

Update: This post has been edited for clarity, since two separate trials are mentioned.

The surprise verdict that came down this morning against the editors of four independent political tabloids is the herald of more repression to come — at least when it comes to dealing with President Hosni Mubarak, his son Gamal and other regime bigwigs. It also appears to mark the end of that the three-year window of openness to the press, which saw a multitude of new titles (including all of the ones whose editors were condemned) appear and freedom of expression widen significantly.

Let’s first focus on what happened today: Ibrahim Eissa, editor of al-Destour, Adel Hammouda, editor of al-Fagr, Wael al-Ibrashi, editor of Sawt al-Umma, and Abdel Halim Qandil, editor of al-Karama also face fines of LE20,000. Their bail to stay out of jail pending appeal was set at LE10,000. The prime target in this bunch was Eissa, who has been a thorn in the neck of the regime for over a decade (the previous incarnation of al-Destour was banned in 1997 and Eissa was blackballed from public and private newspapers and television by security interference) — and he will still face separate charges when another trial opens on October 1 for what he published on the rumors. Hammouda, who has run a series of nationalist-populist scandal rags, is a surprise target but even his al-Fagr needed to keep up with the sheer aggressivity of its competitors. al-Ibrashi was long Eissa’s second-in-command and has very much “Destourized” (the phrase is now commonly used among Egyptian journalists to mean making an article more provocative) Sawt al-Umma after he took it over from Hammouda. Finally, Qandil is a seasoned Nasserist activist who, in Fall 2004, was kidnapped by goons and told “not to write about the big people” (al-kubar) — he was one of Egypt’s first journalists to recently take on the institution of the presidency and the president himself.

Together, this group represents the core of Egypt’s political tabloids. It’s true that these newspapers don’t exactly have great journalistic standards, but they serve as (frequently impassioned and funny) pamphlets to vent political frustration. al-Destour, perhaps more than any other newspaper, appeared to specialize in not-so-subtle attacks on Mubarak, particularly in Eissa’s long front-page article that was frequently illustrated with a little cartoon of a king (who the king represented is pretty easy to figure out.) Eissa and a Destour journalist both given suspended sentences in 2006 (upon appeal) for printing an article on a lawyer’s plan to take Mubarak and his family to court for swindling foreign aid. Of course, he did not heed that warning shot. It should also be noted that in addition to the court case, the crony-run Higher Council for the Press is now urging the Journalists’ Syndicate to condemn alleged rumor-mongers, which include all the newspapers listed above.

Judging from reports that the judge praised Mubarak and his son Gamal as he read out the verdict, this crackdown appears very much related to the regime’s that any upcoming political transition, whether to Gamal or someone else, takes place in a controlled atmosphere.

These sentences are about the attacks on the NDP and the presidency that have taken place for well over a year, as if the newspapers were competing with one another in making the regime look bad. The recent furore over when Mubarak is dead, seriously ill or whatever — rumors that the newspapers stand accused of “maliciously spreading” are after all, even if they were not true this time around, plausible: Mubarak is 79 years old and sooner or later the inevitable will happen. Prosecutors are said to be arguing that the editors (more specifically, at least for now, Eissa) were responsible, because they published the rumors, of some $350 million capital flight from foreign investors worried about a chaotic transition. (I’m no Egyptian stock market expert, but surely there are all kinds of possible reasons for capital flight these days, considering high oil, high euro and the lingering malaise over the subprime mortgage business).

Yet, if there is little to no visibility on how presidential transition will take place, whose fault is that? Newspaper editors who are tempted to reprint (and add to) whatever rumor they hear because, let’s face it, the future of the country is a topic that sells? Or that of a president who has not designated a successor and refused to appoint a vice-president?

The entire past three weeks of rumors on Mubarak’s health (which we still have no idea whether they were even partly accurate) have been like an experiment in surrealism. The rumors appeared originally (in al-Badil, I believe) with a report that US Ambassador Francis Ricciardone had said Mubarak looked ill, as well as some speculation as to why Mubarak had not been in the public eye recently. Fast-forward a few weeks and you have the “nationalist” MP Mustafa Bakri calling for Ricciardone’s expulsion on grounds that he deliberately tried to destabilize the country, Ambassador Ricciardone having to categorically deny anything about the rumors a few days ago at a meeting at the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt, Suzanne Mubarak appearing on TV to say her hubby is fine but that “as a private citizen, not the president’s wife” she feels the journalists who spread the rumors should be punished, those same journalists sentenced in a lightning trial and Gamal (who let’s remember holds no official position outside of the one in the ruling party) suddenly replacing the president in his public functions such as the annual “meeting with the students.”

In a country run like that, if I were a foreign investor I might want to divest too.

In the meantime, if 2006 (or even late 2005) saw the beginning of the crackdown on all opposition figures (jailing of Ayman Nour, campaign against the MB), 2007 appears to be dedicated to silencing the press when it comes to the president. Try as they may, that’s going to be a much tougher job.

Wael Abbas wins award

Not having internet at home, being very busy and feeling a little bit under the weather means blogging is light, but I could not pass up the great news that the pride of the Egyptian blogosphere, Wael Abbas, won a Knight International Journalism Award for his website MisrDigital. I am especially happy as I wrote a letter to the Knight Foundation recommending him for the award!

Elf mabrouk ya Wael!

Ailing Mubarak?

Too busy to write in more length about this today, but for over a week now the Egyptian (non-state) media has gone into another one of its Mubarak deathwatch modes. Last time was during the last big al-Ahly game, when Mubarak’s absence at the match caused a panic among journos who believed the old man was agonizing. Too much wishful thinking… but that says a lot about the state that Egypt is in right now. More later on this hopefully!

MB’s Essam al-Erian arrested

I have just received the following email from a friend in the Muslim Brotherhood:

I just received the news of the arrest (or re-arrest) of Essam El Erian, Chief of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political bureau, who was banned from travelling to Turkey this morning. A number of leaders were also arrested, including Mahmoud Hussien, a member of the Executive Council.

El Erian spent most of his lifetime in prison, being arrested one time after the other. I fail to comprehend the logic of his arrest, especially that he is a well -known leader who appears on media outlets all the time, and is well known for his moderate stances, and tolerance. He enjoys the love and support of all political activists in the country, including his political opponents. In fact, some observers make distinctions between his discourse and that of other Brotherhood leaders, and claim that El Erian presents a moderate façade for a group which is not that moderate.

El Erian was elected to parliament in 1987, and was arrested several times. I could not count them now of course, but he was arrested in 1978, 1981, 1995 ( and was sentenced to five years in prison by a military tribunal), 2002, 2005, 2006, and was last released in December 2006, only 4 days before the arrest of Khayrat el Shater, the Muslim Brotherhood’s deputy chairman.

The arrest of El Erian is a clear attempt by the regime to crackdown on the moderate leaders of the Brotherhood who could push the group towards more moderate stances. With El Shater and El Erian being behind bars, the Brotherhood’s political leadership is being deprived of two of its most influential and moderate faces. The question remains: who does that serve?

It’s a good question.

Video shows child victim of torture in Egypt

The video below, updated to Google Video by Ikhwanweb.com, a Muslim Brotherhood website, shows an interview with a child and his mother, who say he was tortured in a police station in Mansoura, northern Egypt. The video is graphic and shows the child’s burn wounds and other injuries. As horrible as these scenes are, it is videos like these (and the internet technologies to deliver them) that are lifting the veil on the type of police brutality that is apparently routine in Egypt.

Again, proceed with caution due to the graphic nature of the footage.

Update: I didn’t realize it at the time of my earlier post, but the boy in the video has died from his wounds. (I had read about the scandal last week, but did not put two and two together.) From what I gathered from various online sources, the boy was quickly buried by the police before a proper autopsy could be carried out. Human rights activists called for his body to be exhumed and a new autopsy carried out, and Mansoura police to be charged:

Egypt to exhume boy’s body

Cairo – Egypt’s chief prosecutor has ordered the exhumation of the body of a teenager who died in police custody amid family allegations he was tortured to death, said reports.

A new autopsy would be carried out on 13-year-old Mamduh Abdel Aziz, who died in hospital in the Nile Delta town of Mansura on Sunday, four days after police took him there because he lost consciousness while in their custody on a theft charge.

His family immediately filed a complaint against police, claiming they tortured him to death.

The police report said he died of a lung complaint, and the interior ministry denied any torture, saying that burns on his body were accidental.

However, a legal source said on Sunday that the boy had lost consciousness during his six days in police detention, apparently after being beaten.

Related: Egyptian cops find torture kit. What a country.