Selling Sharm?

With Issandr having said ‘Buy land in Sinai now!’ in the discussion of the Saudi plan to build a bridge to Sinai, I think this interesting article on British property buyers which appeared in Business Monthly in a way supports what he added: ‘if you have a well-placed uncle in the army or mukhabarat’.

Property worth up to $250millions has been snatched up by foreigners over the past three years, the article estimates, but nobody is really sure on which legal basis that has happened.

The vague wording of the decree, combined with the fact that parliament has still not got around to approving it, has left the parties concerned in a considerable state of confusion. No one is really sure whether non-Egyptians can still buy property on a freehold basis. Certainly, resorts such as Delta Sharm in the Hadaba area of the city continue to sell and resell on this basis. “Technically, a decree does not cancel a [previously existing] law, it merely gives another option,� says El Bahrawy. Other observers add that a further unwelcome consequence of the legal confusion is some officials have been demanding unwarranted fees.

LE 200

That’s good news for those business men of Egypt’s parallel economy carrying around millions of pounds (khawaga hit men pay in hard currency, I guess?). The capacity of their black suit cases could now double, as Egypt’s Central Bank is to introduce LE200 notes. (And later on even LE 500 notes).

On the lower end of Egypt’s cash economy (90% of transactions are estimated to be carried out in cash), many people would also welcome an initiative to improve the supply of SMEs with smaller denominations.

Penetration of SMEs with banking services is low, agreed, but why is it that no-one has change? If you’re the first customer at your local grocery in the early morning or the first in a fast-food outlet in the late morning hours, it takes ages for them to scrape up your change together from all employees around.

Anyways, even if banks don’t offer cash-flow services to SMEs, I think many would welcome it if shop owners found a way to keep change in their shop at the end of the day for the next morning (or bring it with them before opening), and I always wondered why they’re not doing so. Cash-flow of groceries and other shops is much higher then what you’d think.

Another consequence of the fact that SMEs/shops and banks have in so far (now many banks consider it as an opportunity for growth) largely ignored each other, is the prevalence of worn-out banknotes. It is one function of the Central Bank (via banks) to separate them out, but that doesn’t work if banks never get to see them…

(Besides that, I also don’t understand the Egyptian mentality here. Instead of fighting over it, you just pass that outworn khamza gineh right on to the next passenger (in case of taxi drivers), and everyone involved is muss less stressed. Iranians, for instance, are not at all obsessed about clean money. They just tear half-torn notes into two proper pieces and then tape them.)

Bridging Sinai and Saudi Arabia

This is an interesting project:

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah will next week lay the foundation stone for a $1.5 billion bridge project that will link the Kingdom to neighbouring Egypt.

The bridge will link the Sinai region of Egypt, close to the Sharm el-Sheikh resort town, to the northwest of Saudi Arabia near Ras el-Sheikh Humayd.

Two bridges will be built to span the Gulf of Aqaba and Tiran Strait, with Tiran Island used as a halfway point for the 25 km crossing.

While I generally think that more infrastructure is badly needed to support inner-Arab trade, I actually don’t think this will immediately do much good to South Sinai’s economy, which is relatively well-off thanks to its tourism resorts. (It would be the North around El Arish that needs development.) This giant project is likely to destroy more of its precious coral riffs, and certainly means more trucks shipping goods from the Kingdom to Cairo, polluting the air and further damaging already bad roads.

There are also talks between Yemen and Djibouti, by the way, to connect their countries via a bridge as well. This one is planned to carry a railway connection, which definitely should have been contemplated in case of the Sinai bridge as well. But I guess ENR is too busy with repairing all its switches and electrifying its tracks.

NYT: Denial and Democracy in Egypt

The liberal pinkos at the NYT, of all things, pick up on the closing of the CTUWS and admonish the US ambassador to Egypt for being too, er, diplomatic.

Denial and Democracy in Egypt – New York Times:

In recent weeks, Egypt’s government has further trampled the rights of its citizens, closing several branches of the Center for Trade Union and Workers’ Services, which provides much needed legal assistance to workers. This comes at a time when a growing number of government critics have been thrown in jail and on the heels of constitutional amendments that restrict rights and weaken standards for arrest and detention.

All of this somehow has escaped the Bush administration’s ambassador to Egypt who, in a recent television interview in Cairo, painted a chillingly sunny picture of President Hosni Mubarak’s government. While he acknowledged there were “some infringements and violations” of human rights, he declared himself “optimistic” about democratic progress in Egypt, adding that the judiciary and the government’s “commitment to the opinion of the common Egyptian citizen” would carry the day.

That not only contradicts reality — freedom of expression and assembly is actually diminishing — it contradicts the State Department’s latest human rights report, which says that Egypt’s rights record remains poor. Egypt’s jailed bloggers and beaten protesters can certainly attest to that.

After crackdowns weakened or destroyed so many of Egypt’s independent political organizations, democratic activists are hoping the burgeoning trade union movement will pick up the fight for democratic change. Which is why Mr. Mubarak has ordered the shuttering of the trade union centers.

With so many other things to worry about in the Middle East, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President Bush also seem to have lost their earlier fervor for Egyptian democracy. Washington must warn Mr. Mubarak clearly about the costs — for Egypt’s long-term stability and its relationship with the United States — of such anti-democratic moves. Happy talk and denial just damage America’s credibility and enable more repression.

Ambassadors should have to get training to restrain from heaping free praise to regimes that don’t deserve it. One can complain about Ambassador Ricciardone’s upbeat appearances on Egyptian TV, but much more distasteful was his counterpart in Tunis’ statements a few weeks ago that Tunisia “is a model for the region.” But overall, I can’t help feeling this op-ed is soooo last year — has the NYT only now realized that the Bush administration has backpedaled on Egypt?

Birthday boy

Yesterday was Hosni Mubarak’s birthday — he turned 79. It must have been a busy day, with all those people over for work and Jimmy tying the knot. I’d say best wishes, but would just rather reproduce this birthday card printed in Egypt’s number two state daily, al-Akhbar:

My dear child,

On the celebration of your birthday, I find myself at a loss as to what kind of gift I should offer you, my most beloved child.

On this happy occasion I asked myself: Should I offer you a flower, watered with the water of the Nile, and that flourished in the embrace of the palm trees… and as I presented it to you, it took the shape of 70 million of my sons and daughters?

Or should I take the traditional course and light a candle for your birthday, and all my sons and daughters would gather round as they sang with a beautiful voice and with all their heart ‘happy birthday Mr. President’?

Shall I just plant a kiss on your forehead my beloved son?

What can I do to express my happiness on the day of your birthday… well I will recount, on this happy occasion, something precious in my mind, your long and difficult path which takes you to my heart, my memory and my feeling.

You are a powerful eagle soaring the skies… teaching my enemies lessons they cannot forget, and you protect me from the shame of defeat.

You, my beloved child, tackle the difficult issues like a noble fighter, carrying my sons and daughters to security, comfort, allowing the flower of freedom to bloom and sing the melodious tunes of democracy.

You tower above all patiently, while some of my children try to tarnish the forum of freedom, abusing the democracy which you have welcomed through doors and windows.

You have been patient with some of my children who have lost their way, and wished they could see the light. You didn’t try to silence any voice or break any pen, for the sake of freedom and democracy. You treated them like a noble knight.

I know you don’t like praise… but you are a part of me and with the rest of my sons and daughters, you are my wealth.

Happy Birthday,

Egypt

[Thanks, P.]

Guardian piece on Egyptian bloggers

I had this opinion piece on the Guardian’s Comment is Free site about Arab and Egyptian bloggers and how they might face the ongoing security clampdown. Got so busy yesterday with work forgot to post it here! (Sorry for the slow posting these days…)

I just wanted to note, if any Egyptian bloggers feel slighted by not being mentioned, I wanted to focus on a few cases and, as much as possible, ones that could be read by non-Arabic speakers. In any case, the comments on the piece are very interesting (well, aside from the ones about Israel.)

هـي آه… بـلدنا لا

Egyptian bloggers will hold a “wedding party” in Talaat Harb Sq., Friday 4 May, 6pm, to celebrate the marriage of our future president Gamal Mubarak to the lovely Khadiga, which will be held simultaneously in Sharm el-Sheikh.

The bloggers’ protest party will be held under the slogan: “Heyya ah! Baladna La!” (basically: Go and marry her, but don’t marry our country!”

Click on the banner below to read more details in Arabic.

وتكون آخر الأ�را�

Mabrouk lil 3aroussein.

Fisk and Heykal

A week or two ago The Independent ran a portrait-interview of Muhammad Hassanein Heykal by Robert Fisk. It was a rather odd piece — an ode of admiration and self-admiration by two aging Middle East hacks who, while arguably important men, are highly divisive figures. I was rather disappointed that Fisk, quite the controversial figure himself (among journos especially), introduced Heykal as follows:

The adviser of Gamal Abdul Nasser, once editor of Al-Ahram – in the days when it was a great Arab newspaper, rather than the government mouthpiece it has become – Mohamed Hasseinein Heikel is the author of some of the most stylishly written historical works on Middle East history, as well as the archivist of the private papers of Nasser himself. “Acerbic” is how Heikel’s friends like to call his bitter criticism of the present Egyptian regime. Devastating might be a better word. I can almost see The Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak – who reads The Independent – sighing as he reads the next paragraph.

There’s no dispute that Heykal is important person in modern Egyptian history, but this glosses over that he was minister of propaganda for a regime with pretty totalitarian tendencies and later made himself available to leaders with very different outlooks than Nasser. Also, the man who once cheered for Nasser’s brand of socialism is rather wealthy today — and he might have been back then, if a rumor that I heard that he was the first man in Egypt to own a yacht in the 1970s. Those Cohiba cigars don’t come cheap either. As for al-Ahram not being a mouthpiece then… it pretty much provided the template for the picture-of-the-great-leader-on-every-front-page model that is widely seen across the region now.

Nonetheless, the interview is interesting because Heykal is, well, Heykal: a man from deep inside the establishment with a keen mind and the odd score to settle. His nasty take on Mubarak — at least the bit about security — seems spot on:

“Our President Mubarak lives in a world of fantasy at Sharm el-Sheikh,” Heikel says. “Let us face it, that man was never adjusted to politics. He started to be a politician at the age of 55 when Sadat made him vice president before he was assassinated. Yes, Mubarak was a very good pilot” – he was commander of the Egyptian air force – “but to start off as a politician at the age of 55, that takes a lot of work. His original dream was to have been an ambassador, to be among the “excellencies”. Now it’s been 25 years he’s been president – he’s nearly 80 – and he still can’t take the burdens of state.” I remind Heikel that, shortly before he was assassinated at a military parade in Cairo, Sadat locked him up as a danger to the state and that when the new President Mubarak released him, Heikel was unstoppable in his praise of the man he now condemns. I had found Heikel after his release from prison, closeted with his family in a bedroom of the Meridien Hotel, thin and wasted, his clothes hanging from him after weeks in darkened cells, held alongside Islamists (who impressed him) and thieves. Mubarak had been a shining light to him then, the symbol of a new Egypt, the man who had freed him from captivity. “At that time, I though he [Mubarak] had learnt a lesson,” Heikel says. “I thought that because he had been beside Sadat when he was assassinated, he would have appreciated something. But more than anything else, it taught him ‘security’.”

I was also intrigued by an argument he made further down:

Yet there is still optimism in Heikel. “I think there is something very interesting going on in Egypt, moving under the pressures of society. What is amazing about our students is not the standards of education – it’s their eagerness to acquire knowledge. The effect of mobiles, computers, satellites – there is a generation coming that is outside the traditional controls. Normally, generations recreate themselves. But something else is happening. The police are unable to prevent the political demonstrations. These are not very large – but by using phones, mobiles, the internet, SMS, they are starting a political form of guerrilla warfare in a new medium. Do you know that never before in our history in Egypt was the budget of our army less than the budget of our police? Now it is. What does that tell you?”

There is certainly something to be said about the gist of that last remark — the police and civilian security services appear to be an ever more present force in Egyptian political life, while the army has retreated and is shrouded in mystery. But Heykal’s claim is not true, at least not according to official budget figures:

Budgetsnapshot

If you look at that snapshot from the budget, you’ll see that the total expenditure for the military is still much higher. Digging down into the details, though, you’ll see funds are used in very different ways. Of course some of these stats are not very helpful (99% of the military’s spending consists of “other expenditures”), but it’s the only public data to go on. One is impressed however by the fact that “compensation of employees” is much high for the police than the military, as are the “purchases of goods and services” and “subsidies, grants and social benefits.”

Muslim Brothers: so hot right now

As they face one of the biggest crackdowns in decades and the military trial of some of their top funders begins, the Egyptian Muslim Brothers are attracting ever more attention. There is a long piece in the NY Times Magazine — a pretty decent and sympathetic portrait of the group and some of its personalities, even if it is generally inconclusive — that looks at their recent pro-reform parliamentary record and what various members of the group say about issues such as alcohol, Copts, and so on. James Traub, the author of the piece, is working on a book on democracy promotion and it shows: there are references to the Bush administration’s stance towards the MB, which Traub posits as being at odds with the Forward Agenda for Freedom (Bushspeak for democracy promotion.) To me it seems the democracy promotion angle (a US policy issue) is a bit awkwardly tackled to the more general look at the Brothers’ democratic credentials, but of course it’s an interesting issue.

As it has fully entered the political arena, the brotherhood has been forced to come up with clear answers on issues about which it has been notably ambiguous in the past. Some are easy enough: There seems to be little appetite among them for stoning adulterers or lopping off the hands of thieves; and all deprecate the jizya, or tax on nonbelievers, as a relic of an era when only Muslims served in the military. Some are not so easy. I asked Magdy Ashour about the drinking of alcohol, which is prohibited in Saudi Arabia, Iran and other Islamic states. He was quite unfazed. “There is a concept in Shariah that if you commit the sin in private it’s different from committing it in public,” he explained. You can drink in a hotel, but not in the street. This was flexibility verging on pragmatism. I wondered if Ashour, and the other brotherhood candidates, had offered such nuanced judgments on the stump; a number of detractors insist that the group’s campaign rhetoric was much more unabashedly Islamist.

There are, of course, more fundamental questions. In the course of a three-hour conversation in the brotherhood’s extremely modest office in an apartment building in one of Cairo’s residential neighborhoods, I asked Muhammad Habib, the deputy supreme guide, how the brotherhood would react if the Legislature passed a law that violated Shariah. “The People’s Assembly has the absolute right in that situation,” he said, “as long as it is elected in a free and fair election which manifests the people’s will. The Parliament could go to religious scholars and hear their opinion” — as it could seek the advice of economists on economic matters — “but it is not obliged to listen to these opinions.” Some consider grave moral issues, like homosexual marriage, beyond the pale of majoritarianism; others make no such exception. Hassan al-Banna famously wrote that people are the source of authority. This can be understood, if you wish to, as the Islamic version of the democratic credo.

It’s also interesting to see MB rhetoric for why Americans should talk to them:

But why not engage the brotherhood openly? Is what is gained by mollifying the Mubarak regime worth what is lost by forgoing contact with the brotherhood? “Americans,” Essam el-Erian said to me, “must have channels with all the people, not only in politics, but in economics, in social, in everything, if they want to change the image of America in the region.” Of course, that principle applies only up to a point. The administration has, understandably, refused to recognize the democratic bona fides either of Hamas or of Hezbollah in Lebanon. But the Muslim Brotherhood, for all its rhetorical support of Hamas, could well be precisely the kind of moderate Islamic body that the administration says it seeks. And as with Islamist parties in Turkey and Morocco, the experience of practical politics has made the brotherhood more pragmatic, less doctrinaire. Finally, foreign policy is no longer a rarefied game of elites: public opinion shapes the world within which policy makers operate, and the refusal to deal with Hamas or Hezbollah has made publics in the Islamic world dismiss the whole idea of democracy promotion. Even a wary acceptance of the brotherhood, by contrast, would demonstrate that we take seriously the democratic preferences of Arab voters.

Ultimately, though, what I like best about Traub’s piece are the little vignettes about what it is that Muslim Brotherhood MPs and activists do at the local level. It’s worth reading fully.

While on the topic of the MB, Robert Leiken, the establishment conservative policy type who advocated (with mildly neo-con [edit:see comments] Steven Brooke) engagement with the MB in the pages of Foreign Affairs a couple of months ago, follows up on critiques of his argument in the National Interest — particularly the critique “more neo-con than me you die” Joshua Muravshik articulated in Commentary. So basically it’s an argument between conservative policy wonks. All credit to them for having the argument, and I am not so familiar with centrist and liberal debates on this issue in Amreeka (my friends Samer Shehata and Josh Stacher, who have argued for engagement with the MB, are scholars not wonks). Indeed, I find the pages of places like the Center for American Progress rather barren on such topics — or am I wrong? The debate has to be broader than this to be significant.

Nonetheless, there is a fundamental truth that if you talk about engaging the MB in an American context, no matter what you think about what the MB wants to do in Egypt, there is the question of its support for Hamas. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood supports terrorism, since it supports Hamas, and Hamas is considered to be a terrorist organization in US law. In some anti-MB arguments, that “support of terrorism” charge can seem to mean that the MB supports al-Qaeda — and the debate hits a brick wall. Nonetheless, that critique is not serious. Hamas is not al-Qaeda and while it makes use of terrorism, it does so in resistance to occupation. That argument of course won’t get you far in American circles either, but one that might is that if the US does not engage with the MB because it supports Hamas, should it break off diplomatic relations with Kuwait, Saudi Arabia or Egypt which have given money to the Hamas-controlled Palestinian government or facilitated those donations? (I am leaving out the obvious imbalance in US treatment of Palestinian use of violence against civilians to resist occupation vs. Israeli use of violence against civilians to perpetuate occupation.)

There is perhaps another issue worth raising: what is the MB’s position towards the situation in Iraq, and does the MB encourage people to go fight the jihad there? I have no evidence the MB is involved in this, but there have been quite a few Egyptian mujahedeen in Iraq and you have to wonder about the recruitment networks they came through.

In any case, if people want to debate this in the comments, can we refrain from the all-caps messages about how the MB are the spawn of Satan?