The first political assassination under Mubarak?

Mohammed Habib, the deputy Supreme Guide of the Muslim Brothers, has accused retired General Fouad Allam, formerly of State Security, of planning the first political assassination of the Mubarak regime.

Allam is recurrent media figure in Egypt, but also often used as a pundit on security issues by foreign newspapers. He also has something of a legendary status among Egyptian leftists, who say he was an orchestrator of the Sadat-era campaign to encourage the rise of Islamist groups such as the Gamaa Islamiya in the 1970s to counter the communist and Nasserist left. Personally I think both his knowledge about the current security situation is exaggerated — he is retired after all and I’ve rarely heard him say anything particularly interesting or new — and his role in some grand plan to crush the Egyptian left may be more legend than reality.

Quite aside from whether Habib’s accusation are valid or not, this kind of statement makes you wonder about the settling of accounts that might take place should there be a radical change of regime in the next few years. A lot of people have been complicit in a lot of bad things over the years, things no one knows about officially but many have heard of through Chinese whispers or stories activists and political junkies like to tell. One of the bizarre aspects of Egyptian life at this moment is that while all kinds of extremely serious accusations regularly fly around, there are rarely if ever any consequences. Investigations are not launched, the accused rarely sue for libel, accusations aren’t followed up. Much like the press itself, which shouts in outrage at the top of its lungs but never seems to have an actual impact on things, these allegations seem to exist in a media vacuum entirely disconnected from real life.

The Brothers in parliament

Samer Shehata, a very smart professor at Georgetown whom I’ve had the pleasure to spend some time with earlier this year, and our very own soon-to-be-professor Josh Stacher have a jointly written article on the Muslim Brotherhood in the new issue of Middle East Report. Thankfully, unlike most of the magazine, it’s online. It’s a thoughtful and timely piece about how, in the nine months or so since they’ve entered parliament with a record 88 members, the Brotherhood has influenced the parliamentary process and has worked effectively as a reformist political force in Egypt, most notably lending its support to the judges’ cause earlier this year.

There’s some fascinating information in there about the organization of the Brotherhood’s parliamentary delegation, notably how it has not only turned out to be a professional and well-organized group in the People’s Assembly but also how it has impact the parliamentary process:

The Brotherhood’s small parliamentary office in Cairo’s al-Manyal neighborhood no longer affords enough space for the deputies to meet collectively, given the fivefold increase in their numbers. So all of the Brotherhood MPs stay in the Ma‘adi Hotel when Parliament is in session. “When Parliament meets, we forget our houses,” says ‘Ali Fath al-Bab, the only one of the deputies elected three times. “We take our suitcases—even those who live in Cairo—and stay in the hotel.” The MPs room and eat together, and discuss the following day’s agenda in the hotel’s conference halls. They also chat informally and attend plenary lectures by speakers from outside the Brotherhood on topics related to those they are tackling in the People’s Assembly.

Yet the Ma‘adi Hotel also performs a more basic function: giving the MPs a place to stay so they can attend parliamentary sessions regularly. Fath al-Bab notes the difference from the 1995–2000 term, his first, when he was the only Brotherhood MP. Nominally, half of the MPs, or 228, must be present to constitute a quorum. Should the number fall below 228, however, the session is still considered lawful, as only a simple majority of those present are needed to pass legislation. Recalling his first term, Fath al-Bab explains, “By the end of the night, there might be 30 NDP MPs left and they would still be passing legislation.” But the Brothers’ regular attendance is changing that: “The NDP now has to have 100 people in Parliament at all times to maintain their majority.” Other Brotherhood MPs say the size of the Brotherhood’s bloc changes the dynamics of the legislature in other ways as well. As Husayn Muhammad Ibrahim, vice chairman of the bloc and a twice-elected MP, notes, “Our presence has had an effect. The NDP MPs are forced to be more critical toward the government and better prepared. It has changed how they act, but not how they vote.” The quasi-official daily al-Ahram concurs that the “Islamic trend” is playing a “noticeable and distinguished role that cannot be denied” in legislative sessions. Because of the Brothers, these sessions are more serious than previously in Mubarak’s tenure.

The MB’s parliamentary competence is nothing new — they like to boast of this and have even produced a handbook to MB parliamentary activity in the 2000-2005 parliament — but the article explains very well how the scale of the MB’s presence has changed. For a frame of reference, I recommend reading Mona el-Ghobashy’s 2005 paper.

There’s also some discussion of how well-informed the Brothers’ interventions in parliament have been, and how they make a real effort to inform themselves seriously about topical issues — even inviting experts from other political trends, including the NDP, to speak to them.

This “parliamentary kitchen,” as the Brothers call it, is divided into specialized teams that gather information about issues the MPs deal with in the Assembly. “In Parliament, you have access to a library and a central information office,” explains Ibrahim. “Neither is useful. A kitchen is a necessity and all the blocs need one. The kitchen consists of people with knowledge and experience…. Its job is to use civil society and consult experts to organize information we use in Parliament.” The parliamentary kitchen has been around since 2000, when 17 Muslim Brothers were elected to the People’s Assembly. But as the size of the bloc has increased, the kitchen has been forced to expand the scope of its activities. The result is that Brotherhood MPs are better prepared and informed about the issues. As Mansour argues, “The parliamentary kitchen gives us better tools to do our jobs.”

The parliamentary kitchen also has a second, and in many ways more important, function. Whether researching public health, judicial matters or environmental problems, the kitchen reaches out to society at large when gathering information. “We think that anyone who has knowledge is approachable,” Fath al-Bab states. “We don’t just rely on Brotherhood sources.” The kitchen is responsible for organizing the MPs’ seminar series, which has featured non-Brotherhood speakers such as Diaa Rashwan of the al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, NDP Higher Policy Council member Hala Mustafa and the chairman of Cairo University’s Political Science Department, Hasan Nafa‘a. While this outreach benefits Brotherhood MPs first and foremost, it also encourages civil society activists, who the regime and ruling party ignore at best and smother at worst, simply by providing an attentive audience.

Of course the Brotherhood MPs are still unable to stop bills, but they are having an impact on the atmosphere in which bills are discussed and in the media coverage of parliamentary debate — since there actually can be a real debate now. Samer and Josh document very well the public outreach that MB did during this year’s avian flu crisis. The paradox about the hysteria about the bird flu in Egypt was that trust in the authorities is so low that people did not believe government statements (who can blame them considering the long track record of lies?) The MB’s effort at calming a nearly hysterical population seems to have had more success:

Health experts, the media and the opposition roundly criticized the Egyptian government for underestimating the threat of avian flu, being insufficiently prepared and mishandling the crisis.[5] The Brotherhood MPs, meanwhile, applied immediate pressure on the government to devote greater attention to avian flu in order to lessen the impact on the nation’s economy. Drawing on the group’s organizational resources, the Islamist parliamentarians spearheaded a nationwide campaign to inform Egyptians about bird flu, calming nerves and dispelling rumors about the disease. Days after the first Egyptian bird flu case was announced, dozens of Brotherhood MPs stood outside Parliament eating grilled chicken while photographers snapped pictures.

I think you could probably find more occasions (the ferry and train disasters, the Lebanon war, the judges’ crisis etc.) where the Brotherhood (cynically or not) jumped on the opportunity to a public service that would make themselves look good, appear responsible and make the regime look bad. Some call this opportunism, I like to call it politics. The fact remains that the MB is the only political force that pulls off these kinds of stunts. They mention some of this, notably th
e judges’ crisis at length. In this case I think it was not only opportunism, but a genuine realization of the importance of judicial independence to meaningful political reform in Egypt.

One thing I regret about the piece is that while it does a a great job of showing how competent and reform-oriented the MB has been in parliament, it insufficiently looks at the areas in which they have failed to deliver. There are two things — unkept MB promises — I have in mind, specifically.

Firstly, around January of this year Brotherhood spokesman Essam al-Erian announced that, in light of the sectarian tensions of the preceding months, the MB would prevent a definitive position paper on its stance on the Coptic question — one that would revise their historic position or at least reconcile the sometimes contradictory statements that Supreme Guides have made about Copts over the year. This was particularly important at the time as a new informal dialogue between senior Brothers and independent (i.e. non-Church) Coptic intellectuals, led by Al Watani editor Youssef Sidhoum, had just been started. The Brotherhood never produced anything, and later a spokesman even said it the Brotherhood had nothing new to say and stood by its previous statements. I find this extremely disappointing and interpret it as a sign that the MB was not able to form a consensus on the Coptic question, which only feeds the suspicions of Copts and Muslim secularists that, no matter how reasonable some Brothers might seem, many of them are bigots (an intuition that I personally think is correct.)

The second broken promise was made by Supreme Guide Mahdi Akef, who around February of this year pledged the Brotherhood would “soon” revise its internal charter to provide for more internal democracy. He spoke of several changes, but most notable was his mention of more open elections of the Supreme Guide and having their terms limited to four or five years, renewable once. In my mind this was explosive: one of the oldest political groups in Egypt, where party presidents tend to stay for life, was willing not only to break with its own long-established tradition for the appointment of Supreme Guide (which, in real terms, is a lot more than a part president) and impose the very limitations that the opposition is united in demanding from the Egyptian presidency. I have no idea what happened to that proposal, but we haven’t heard about it since. It’s as if after making a big fuss about how moderate they are during and shortly after the parliamentary elections, now they’ve forgotten all about it.

Of course, there’s been a massive crackdown in the meantime, so maybe they’ve just been distracted. Still, this does not inspire confidence. One could also add their bizarre performance during the Lebanon war, which seemed to have been pretty badly thought out.

My own thinking on the Brotherhood is that it is in a crisis, and not only because key members are in jail. As the biggest political group in the country, it is a “big tent” that gathers a lot of people with different views, even if they are all nominally Islamists. The internal debate taking place among the Brotherhood — which we don’t know much about — seems to be at a stalemate. At a time during which they face a massive police and propaganda campaign (just read Al Fagr or Rose Al Youssef these days) they still do not show a clear indication of what they are about beyond vague ideas about Islam and more competence than the NDP. It is as if they have many well-meaning (and probably not-so-well-meaning) middle managers running about, getting to know their constituents and generally doing a pretty good job but no CEO steering the ship. Or several of them going in different directions. Their intellectual production (policy papers etc.) also, to my knowledge (and this isn’t my forte, so please tell me if I’m wrong), seems to be pretty weak. Even Kifaya, with all its disorganization, seems to be more intellectually coherent, or more to the point, intellectually productive. Now some people might say it’s unfair to expect so much of the Brotherhood. Maybe. But the pressure is on them to prove to Egyptians, and the world, that they are not what their enemies say they are. As Samer and Josh show, they’ve done that in part by sterling parliamentary work. But it’s still not enough.

Roy: Hizbullah has redrawn the Middle East

French specialist on Islamist movements Olivier Roy has a very interesting op-ed in the FT, reproduced below.

Hizbollah has redrawn the Middle East
Published: August 17 2006 20:29 | Last updated: August 18 2006 01:49

The perceived victory of Hizbollah in Lebanon may be short term but has highlighted some new and important developments. For the first time, the Israel Defence Forces were unable to prevail in an all-out war. More significantly, the winner this time is a Shia Muslim, non-state, armed movement supported by Syria and Iran. In Israel’s previous wars, from 1948 to 1982, the challengers were Sunni Arabs.

Continue reading Roy: Hizbullah has redrawn the Middle East

Report: Muslim Brothers coup attempt foiled

This is what is being said in the more cooky corners of the internet:

JERUSALEM – Egypt has arrested a leader of a major domestic opposition group who allegedly confessed to plotting the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak, an Egyptian official told the Galil Report.

The suspect, identified as Abed al-Munemhem Abu al-Futuh of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, allegedly admitted during interrogation to planning the coup. Cairo is withholding details.

Egyptian officials told the Galil Report investigators are focusing on a series of conversations al-Futuh had with Muslim Brotherhood leaders in Syria.

The plot was halted just days after Mahdi Akif, leader of the Brotherhood in Egypt, announced his group would train members in military tactics to fight alongside Hezbollah in Lebanon and to join Palestinian terror groups in the Gaza Strip, which borders the Egyptian Sinai desert.

This must have started with some grain of truth (e.g. concern about Egyptian MB discussions with Syrian MB) but otherwise sounds completely preposterous. Especially since Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a leading “moderate” among the MB, has not been reported as arrested, unlike many of his colleagues.

Islamist detainees

I bumped tonight into an Islamist lawyer I know who is a former member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad. We chatted about several issues including Dr. Ayman al-Zawahri’s latest video, current political situation, and more importantly (for me) the issue of Islamist political detainees–those terror suspects who’ve been languishing in Egypt’s Gulags since the 1990s without trial.
The Egyptian Interior Ministry never gave figures for the number of prisoners and detainees. The figures for detainees in the 1990s, put by rights watchdogs, have drastically varied. EOHR puts it at 22,000. I heard other figures that went up to 40,000.

Last March, EOHR put the number of detainees at something between 16,000 and 18,000, due to the release of thousands of Gamaa Islamiya detainees with their renunciation of violence.

The Islamist lawyer I met tonight said there are currently from 5,000 to 6,000 Islamist detainees in prisons. According to him, the Gamaa’s detainees are roughly 600 only, while those of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad number 2,000, and the rest are a mixture of salafis, Sinai bombers’ suspects and a random bunch.

Of course I have no means to verify this independently.

Recommended Book:
Al-Qaeda: The True Story of Radical Islam

Nasrallah’s speech: full text

I thought Arabist readers would be interested in reading a translation of Hassan Nasrallah’s recent “victory speech.” It’s reproduced below (from BBC Monitoring). I found the passage about where he condemned some of the statements of parts of the political elite particularly interesting: they express both a great deal of anger at unnamed politicians (Jumblatt etc.) and a concern not to inflame an already fragile situation. You have to wonder which sentiment will prevail.

I commend myself to God’s protection from the Evil one, the Rejected. [Koranic verse]

In the name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Merciful. Praise be to God the Lord of the universe. Praise be to God alone, who fulfilled His promise, supported His servant, and alone defeated the parties.

Peace and blessings be on the last prophet, our master Muhammad; his chaste household; virtuous companions; and all prophets and messengers.

God’s peace, mercy and blessings be upon you.

On this great and revered day on which our honourable and chaste people return to their villages, towns, houses and neighbourhoods, I address my message to you. I would like to emphasize some issues and matters in this message.

First of all, I do not want to assess or discuss in detail what we are currently witnessing, but I want to say briefly and without exaggeration that we stand before a strategic and historical victory for Lebanon – all of Lebanon, for the resistance, and for the whole nation.
Continue reading Nasrallah’s speech: full text

Dr. Essam to be released

Finally Dr. Essam el-Erian is to be released, after he was detained during the pro-democracy demos last May.

Dr. Essam is someone I and many other secularists have so much appreciation for. He is a respectable citizen and a principled politician who should not have been taken away from his family and work, for demonstrating in support of Egypt’s judiciary, and thrown to the Tora dungeons.

Dr. Essam is one of the main forces in the Muslim Brotherhood that has been pushing the group towards moderation and endorsing democracy as the means to governance. The regular crackdowns the govt conducts against him and his colleagues only serves the cause of extremism and strengthens salafi factions in the group. I’m glad he is getting out.

Mabrouk ya doctor!

Interview with Gamaa leader

My friend Ahmad al-Khateeb of Al-Masri Al-Youm had a long interview with Dr. Nageh Ibrahim, member of the Gamaa Islamiya’s Shoura Council, and one of the militant group’s historical leaders. Unfortunately I have little time to translate it, but if you can read Arabic, please check it out. Today’s interview will be the first in a series.

On a seperate note, Ahmad is getting married on Wednesday… Mabrouk ya basha!Â