Month: March 2009

Things to remember about the Sudan air strike

One big question about the Sudan air strike story is what exactly happened: we have an attack on a convoy of trucks, but no clear explanation of what was on those trucks, what kind of aircraft carried the attack, the nature of the victims/smugglers or even certainty on who carried out the attack, although it seems more likely that it was Israel rather than the US (or perhaps Israel with US logistical support.) These are the basics, which are still hazy.

But if we accept that an attack took place, and that it was conducted by Israel, we still need to think carefully about the implications of this story prima facie. One important thing is that the story appears to validate accounts by the like of Elliott Abrams that Hamas is arming through the Rafah tunnels with weapons smuggled in from the Horn of Africa, through Sudan, and through Egypt where the trucks would presumably go along the Red Sea coast and enter Sinai.

Remember that the idea of smuggling through Sudan and Egypt was first advanced last February by Abrams, as Jim Lobe noted. Love argued in a follow-up:

The more one looks into it, the more Elliott Abrams’ rendition of how Iran allegedly smuggles weapons to Hamas in Gaza via Somalia and Eritrea just gets weirder and weirder. Remember: he was Bush’s top Middle East adviser from December, 2002, until January 20 and, as such, had access to the most sensitive information available to the U.S. intelligence community. Yet he seems to be lending himself to an extraordinarily crude Israeli disinformation campaign in which Somalia, which is some 1500 miles from Gaza, is depicted as a key trans-shipment point for the alleged supply of weapons from Iran to Hamas.

Yet among some this is fast becoming gospel. The Cable reports:

“A Washington think tank expert on the Middle East said, ‘The Israelis have been complaining about this supply route for a long time. This gives credence to Israeli reports that Iran is trans-shipping weapons through Sudan and Egypt to Hamas. It would be impolitic for the Israelis to do this in Egypt. This is something the Egyptians have worried about: what happens if there is some sort of attack on Israel from Egyptian soil: what kind of action would Israel take?’

He speculated that the Israeli warplanes took off from the southern Israeli air base at Ovda, flew through the Gulf of Eilat/Aqaba, down the Red Sea in between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and across and over into Sudanese air space. They reportedly struck the targeted convoy northwest of the city of Port Sudan, killing some 39 members of the 17-vehicle convoy.

Responding to the media reports Thursday, outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert didn’t try to dispel the impression that Israel had carried out the operation. ‘We operate everywhere where we can hit terror infrastructure — in close places, in places further away, everywhere where we can hit terror infrastructure, we hit them and we hit them in a way that increases deterrence,’ Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz cited him.”

Following this Somalia-Sudan-Egypt route, they would encounter multiple checkpoints and be going through governorates controlled directly by the Egyptian military. Needless to say, the idea that Iran is supplying Hamas long-range rockets and other sophisticated equipment through Egypt (which has bad relations with Iran and Hamas) suggests that either:

1. These trucks, like other types of human or drug traffic coming from Sudan, are not being caught and there is a severe security hole in Egypt’s traffic-control policies;

2. The trucks are getting through by corruption and bribery of officials they encounter, or benefit from the protection of someone up high, although these people may think the trucks contain something else entirely, like drugs;

3. The Egyptian regime, or some officials within it, are somehow complicit with the trafficking and arming of Hamas.

All of these, and especially the latter, are pretty hard to swallow. Which takes us back to a key issue: what was really on those trucks? There is plenty of weapons smuggling taking place in Sudan, for sure, but can a major operation like this have taken place overland going through Egypt, which is obviously concerned about both arms-dealing on its territory and arming Hamas (after all recently they’ve stopped millions of dollars, and hundred of sheep, from being smuggled!) Does this appear more logical than, say, smuggling by sea as has been recently alleged over the Cyprus ship? What if the trucks that were destroyed are not in fact destined for Gaza, and the attack itself is part of a disinformation campaign aimed at sending a message to Iran? Or that at least the importance of the trucks and their content has been exaggerated?

Too much of this story has not been verified. It may very well all turn out to make sense, but right now I would treat it with great caution until we have more information.

On al-Shorouk

Jack Shenker has a timely article on al-Shorouk newspaper for The Arab Press Network, in which he interviews me:

“Although this has attracted criticism from opposition activists, some commentators see it as an important step towards the independent media in Egypt gaining the maturity, and thus credibility, it requires to thrive. ‘Ibrahim El-Moalem [El-Shorouk’s publisher], is not known as an opposition figure, or as someone who takes courageous stands against the government like Ibrahim Eissa [editor of Al-Dustour]’ observed the Arabist, a prominent Egyptian blogger who has written extensively on the Egyptian media scene. ‘He’s going at it with a more professional point of view and a less lurid tone and I think that’s what’s needed in this market, where the tendency is to provide relentlessly negative coverage of the government.’

If El-Shorouk’s target readership is those still clinging to Al-Ahram, it couldn’t have entered the fray at a better time. Three-quarters of Egyptian media remain under government control, but state newspapers are a sinking ship: publications are believed to be collectively in debt to the tune of LE 5-6 billion ($887m to $1.06bn), and morale is at rock bottom in the underpaid, overstaffed newsrooms (Al-Ahram alone employs 1400 journalists) where the standard of stories is often low. El-Shorouk has the money behind it to snap up the best columnists and has even struck syndication deals with international papers like the New York Times enabling it translate and publish some of their content, a move which some believe could transform it into a genuine challenger to the pan-Arab dailies like Al-Quds Al-Arabi and Asharq al-Awsat, both currently published from London.

It remains to be seen though whether this attempt to expand the independent media market in a fresh direction will be enough to bring El-Shorouk long-term stability. For Hamdy Hassan, a media expert at the Al-Ahram institute, the problem with the new paper is not what it has done, but rather what it has failed to do. ‘At a time when the average newspaper reader is getting older, what we needed was a really new outlook, a new language for editing that would bring more young people to the medium,’ argues Dr Hassan. ‘I expected El-Shorouk to provide all of that and prove competitive, but I’m afraid it hasn’t. In other parts of the world the newspaper industry is innovating – audience research projects in America, new tabloid and hybrid formats in Britain – but El-Shorouk has proved to be essentially a copy of what is already on offer, and as a business model that will never be successful.’

With a relative dearth of objective research into readership habits, it’s hard to pinpoint how and why Egypt’s newspaper readers make their daily purchasing choices. The Arabist believes that the ultimate triumph or failure of El-Shorouk will depend on its ability to pull out the big scoops. ‘No one thought Al-Masry Al-Yom would last when it first launched, but it made its name by breaking stories no-one else had, especially around the time of parliamentary elections,’ he says. ‘We’re not in an election period now but we do now have a 24 hour news cycle, where unlike before the independent press can break scandals and force the government to respond the same day. If El-Shorouk can become a part of that process then it will flourish; consistent, solid reporting will always create its own market.'”

Note the interview was given when I was still unsure about the Sudan attack story (it had been published that morning). And Jack, I’m not Egyptian!

I’d like to add my own notes on al-Shorouk, out of interest for those who follow media development (where I have a little experience). Al-Shorouk took months of development amidst uncertainty about its editorial team and direction. It is probably still trying to find its voice and hit cruising speed, which should take one to two years (it is now less than two years old.) It is entering the market at a time when advertising revenue is, according to an industry figure I spoke to, down 40%. It has reportedly given high salaries in an industry that, in cases like al-Dustour and Sawt al-Umma (both run by Ibrahim Eissa and his proteges and owned by publisher Essam Fahmi, who honed down the model of sales-driven weeklies over the last decade) often follows the sweatshop model. A lot of investment has gone into it, and it will be interesting to see whether how long it takes to recoup that investment with this business model and the context of a financial crisis, especially when the market is full of parasitical newspapers. For one rival I spoke to, al-Shorouk is bound to fail editorially (no sense of mission – yet) and commercially (too much initial investment into marketing, salaries not commensurate with market, etc.) I am not entirely convinced: if al-Shorouk hits its stride, gets combination of big name commentary and solid reporting, it may succeed beyond current market leader (along with al-Ahram) Masri al-Youm. But I think it will need those few big stories that make its name, and the Sudan attack one could be one of those. As I told Jack, even in a market that has parasitical newspapers (i.e. that sell a couple of thousand of copies only), if you build a reputable news-driven product, they (the readers) will come.

ADL thinks this cartoon is anti-Semitic

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Pat Oliphant cartoon gets ire of Abe Foxman:

The ADL’s director called the syndicated cartoon, published Wednesday and reprinted below, “hideously anti-Semitic.”

“Pat Oliphant’s outlandish and offensive use of the Star of David in combination with Nazi-like imagery is hideously anti-Semitic,” Abraham Foxman said in a statement released Wednesday. “It employs Nazi imagery by portraying Israel as a jack-booted, goose-stepping headless apparition. The implication is of an Israeli policy without a head or a heart.”

Brilliant new plan for Hamas

Religious IDF troops walk out of event featuring woman singer – Haaretz – Israel News:

“About 100 religious soldiers left a Paratroop Brigade assembly earlier this month to avoid being present at the performance of a female singer, the army weekly Bamahane reported last week.

Their departure stemmed from their belief that halakha, or Jewish religious law, prohibits them from hearing a woman sing. Their position has the support of the army rabbinate. “

So if, in future battles, Hamas starts blaring some Umm Kulthoum, or Fairuz, or Dana International, some of the IDF soldiers might run away? (Of course, the most salafist-inclined Hamas members may also have to leave to prevent impure thoughts coming into their heads if they hear a female voice.)

Links for March 26th

Links from my del.icio.us account for March 26th:

  • A Matter of National Security – No time to blog about this, but there actually was a debate this year when the Egyptian parliament voted to waive approval of arms deals – giving the president the power to make them at his discretion, with no oversight.

  • Israel’s Netanyahu doesn’t expect U.S. policy pressure – washingtonpost.com – Bibi not worried: ""I think you are talking about something that I doubt existed for any length of time in the past and which I am convinced does not exist today," the hawkish Netanyahu told reporters in reply to a question about possible U.S. pressure."

  • Almasry Alyoum : Sufi Sheikhs Call For Foiling April 6 Strike And Describe Its Advocators As Dissenters – Sufis for dictatorship: "Mohamed el-Shahawi, Chairman of the five-party Committee managing the dissolved Supreme Council of Sufi Orders, said all Sufis in Egypt believed in obedience to the ruler (as stated by Islam) as long as he does not violate the Islamic Law." Note he feels compelled to say this as some kind of govt-backed reordering of Sufism is taking place.

  • Hamas accused of war crimes in Gaza | World news | guardian.co.uk – HRW says Hamas guilty of war crimes, but not of using civilian shields, unlike Israel: "It said Hamas deployed fighters in civilian homes during the conflict and fired rockets from bases close to civilian areas, both violations of international humanitarian law. Israel has claimed that Hamas frequently used Palestinians as human shields against Israeli attack, but Human Rights Watch said it could not find any such cases. It said its investigation had been limited because Israel had refused to grant its researchers access to Gaza."

  • Syria Comment » Archives » Khalid Michal Interview by Paul McGeough – Interview by author of "Kill Khalid" book.

Reuters confirms Sudan air strike

Reuters is now independently confirming the Sudan air strike story:

Aircraft destroyed suspected Sudan arms convoy – officials | Reuters:

“KHARTOUM, March 26 (Reuters) – Unidentified aircraft attacked a convoy of suspected arms smugglers as it drove through Sudan toward Egypt in January, killing almost everyone in the convoy, two senior Sudanese politicians said on Thursday.

The politicians, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue, told Reuters the strike took place in a remote area in east Sudan but did not say who carried it out.

Media reports in Egypt and the United States have suggested U.S. or Israeli aircraft may have carried out the strike. Sudan’s foreign minister Deng Alor told reporters in Cairo on Wednesday he had no information on any attack.

Any public confirmation of a foreign attack would have a major impact in Sudan, where relations with the West are already tense following the International Criminal Court’s decision this month to issue an arrest warrant for President Omar Hassan al-Bashir on charges of Darfur war crimes.

Egyptian independent newspaper Al-Shorouk quoted ‘knowledgeable Sudanese sources’ this week as saying aircraft from the United States were involved in the strike, which it said killed 39 people.

The U.S. Embassy in Khartoum on Thursday declined to comment. Sudan remains on a U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism, but the State Department has said that Sudan is cooperating with efforts against militant groups.

U.S.-based CBS News, however, reported on its website on Wednesday that its security correspondent had been briefed that Israeli aircraft had carried out an attack in eastern Sudan, targeting an arms delivery to the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in Gaza.

A senior Israeli defence official on Thursday described the report as nonsense.
“

Previously discussed here and here.

Update: Haaretz provides analysis, taking as assumption that it was an Israeli strike. Watch out for this issue being raised in a few hours at the State Dept. Daily Press Briefing – although I suspect we’ll hear more about this from off-the-record sources in the next few days.

Links March 21st to March 26th

Links from my del.icio.us account for March 21st through March 26th:

  • The Big Takeover : Rolling Stone – Matt Taibbi does his expletive-filled best on the financial crisis.

  • The former Mossad analyst Clinton couldn’t avoid | The Cable – Franklin affair spy is notetaker for Netanyahu. HRClinton tries to get him out of meeting, Bibi keeps him and kicks out his ambassador, who resigned. So why can't HRClinton just come out and say, as SecState I'd rather not talk in front of a person currently involved in an espionage scandal against the US?

  • What has Israel done for Jonathan Pollard lately? – Haaretz – Israel News – Israeli report laments that their spy has not been returned.

  • FT.com / Middle East – Riyadh confronts growing Shia anger – I am starting to look forward to the Dhahran uprising.

  • FT.com / Comment & analysis / Editorial – A Labour fig-leaf for Netanyahu – "When Ehud Barak defeated an ultra-nationalist coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel’s 1999 general election, there were whoops of joy, a collective sigh of relief and dancing in the streets. Ten years on, as Mr Barak tries to bolt his Labour party on to an even more rightwing coalition led by Mr Netanyahu, there is little more than a collective sneer. What happened in between was the slow-motion suicide of Labour, the party of Israel’s founding fathers, which now has so little influence on Israel’s future."

  • Palestinian children sing for Holocaust survivors – But when will more Holocaust survivors, and their descendants, stop Israel from exploiting their tragedy?

  • Who Is Really Closing Rafah Crossing? – Reportby Israeli human rights groups say that Egypt has a responsibility to open Rafah to alleviate Israel's blockade. [PDF]

  • Rain of Fire | Human Rights Watch – HRW's report on the use of white phosphorus during Israel's bombing of Gaza: "The unlawful use of white phosphorus was neither incidental nor accidental. It was repeated over time and in different locations, with the IDF "air-bursting" the munition in populated areas up to the last days of its military operation. Even if intended as an obscurant rather than as a weapon, the IDF's repeated firing of air-burst white phosphorus shells from 155mm artillery into densely populated areas was indiscriminate and indicates the commission of war crimes."

  • The mother of all media leaks – Wikileaks – Disgruntled employee leaks salaries of The National staff – I would not want to be in that newsroom when you find out the guy next to you who does the same job has a different salary than you.

  • Armando Iannucci on the making of In the Loop | Film | The Observer – Iannucci is the comic genius behind many of the best British comedy shows in recent years: "I went into meetings with financiers and distributors carrying nothing but a pitch in my head. "I want to make a comedy about what happens when the US president and the British PM are very keen on a course of military action in the Middle East that no one else thinks is a good idea. We watch everyone under them wonder what to do." That was it, basically."

  • Tunisian pilot who prayed as his plane went down jailed in Italy | World news | The Guardian – "A pilot accused of praying when he should have been taking emergency measures to avoid a crash in which 16 people died has been sentenced to 10 years in jail by an Italian court." Reminiscent of the conspiracy theory about the EgyptAir flight that went down on the US Atlantic coast in the 1990s. Still this story is relating the normal response to an emergency, he may have panicked, but invoking God (in any religion) does not make it worse.

  • Zionism is the problem – Los Angeles Times – "Yet it is no longer possible to believe with an honest conscience that the deplorable conditions in which Palestinians live and die in Gaza and the West Bank come as the result of specific policies, leaders or parties on either side of the impasse. The problem is fundamental: Founding a modern state on a single ethnic or religious identity in a territory that is ethnically and religiously diverse leads inexorably either to politics of exclusion (think of the 139-square-mile prison camp that Gaza has become) or to wholesale ethnic cleansing. Put simply, the problem is Zionism."

  • Islam’s Soft Revolution – Photo Essays – TIME – There really is something offensive about the TIME mag photo gallery that is all impressed that a woman wearing the hijab is a political activist. It's 2009, TIME, where have you been?

  • Daily News Egypt – IN FOCUS: CAN OBAMA TALK TO THE BROTHERHOOD? – Khalil al-Anani: "I believe that the real motive for the non-existence of American dialogue with the Brotherhood is the American administration’s fear of upsetting the Egyptian regime, and the desire to maintain the historical alliance between the two sides on one hand, and the fear of upsetting Israel and maintaining its interests on the other."

  • Netanyahu, Labor Set Coalition in Israel – WSJ.com – Coalition could face challenge from Labor rebels that would bring it right down the middle of the Knesset.

  • FT.com / Middle East / Politics & Society – Dubai’s art fair defies gloomiest forecasts – Budding Dubai art world does well despite downturn.

  • Season of Migration to the North – NYRB Classics – Page for the forthcoming new edition of the al-Tayib Salih's classic novel, with a new intro by Laila Lalami.

CBS says Israel, not US, behind Sudan strike

More on that alleged air strike in Sudan targeting weapons shipments to Gaza:

– The Sudan Tribune said yesterday it was the US, but today that it’s Israel based on a report by the American TV network CBS.

– Haaretz carries the CBS story and says it’s part of the MOU on arms smuggling inked between the US and Israel at the end of Operation Cast Lead. The Haaretz article adds:

Meanwhile, in May, an international conference is scheduled to take place in Ottawa, the third of its kind since the end of Operation Cast Lead, which will discuss how to prevent arms smuggling from Iran to the Gaza Strip.

In addition to host Canada, Britain, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Denmark, the U.S. and Israel will also take part.

Immediately after the conference a “war game” is scheduled to take place in Washington, with the participation of security officials and diplomats from the countries involved. The “war game” will practice a scenario of foiling arms smuggling from Iran to the Gaza Strip.

The most recent conference took place in London a week ago and the countries cooperating in blocking the arms smuggling from Iran formulated a joint plan of operations. The plan includes the signing of a series of bilateral agreements with countries situated along the path of the smugglers, as well as countries whose commercial fleets carry cargo from Iran elsewhere.

One interesting thing in the Sudan Tribune article is that it said something about the planes coming from Djibouti. That would put the French on the suspect list too!

At least it now appears that an air strike did happen (although casualty reports are around 40, not 300) – and confirms the reports from intelligence circles that the smuggling route for Hamas’ weapons is indeed from or through Sudan, through Egypt (a whole other story: how do they keep under the radar, especially in Sinai?), possibly originating from the horn of Africa.