More from Al Misry Al Yom: Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit told the American Chamber of Commerce in Cairo yesterday that the Egyptian ambassador would return to Tel Aviv at the soonest possible time, and that the fate of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was in American hands alone.
Last weekend, the president said the Amb going back was not in the works. (He also said that the six students were not exchanged for Azam Azam.)
Most of us dismissed it. The fact that the press was asking him denotes it is coming. As with most governments, Egypt prepares its people about a week to two-weeks before a planned decision happens though its trusted journalist poxies asking public questions. The fact that the exchange was broadcast on Egyptian public TV reinforces the target audience of such a question. It is the strategy of media fatigue.
Perhaps, the Mubarak denial then can be seen as chance to see if there is any social opposition. Unfortunately, only pockets of socialist groups seem to have any interest in organizing against anything the government does.
The Nasirist party president, Dia al-Din Daoud, has come out against normalization with Israel. But the other opposition party heads are more queit. The MB is particularly absent – my experience shows me they are more interested in talking to the government and criticizing Amrika. There was all sorts of talk about cooperating with the government this summer when I was making the MB rounds.
So it looks like the way Egypt will partially achieve its strategic aims through 2008 is through deepening Israeli-US-Egyptian cooperation.
I can butress this with a antedote. What this means or how representative this is, I leave up to you. I am not saying it is fact or reality – it is just a story…….
Last night, I was with an old friend who to my knowledge does not like Israel. Family experiences in wars and lack of closer reading seem to be the root. Expecting to hear negative things about the past two weeks ongoings, I asked about his thoughts on the warming relations. He responded by going into this stuff about “peace and learning to live together. The war is stupid and has gone on far too long”. Confused and interested, I provoking asked, “What will you do when there is a Israeli restaurant in Tahrir?” He replied, “It would be as it used to be. And why not?”
I am guessing that while this is not a permenent position, it is not well-conceived. So whatever circles my Egyptian friend in running in that used to be unfriendly to the idea of Israel are now changing. I fully understand this is one friend, one story, and that is it. But we are not doing social science now, we are basically gossiping.
My feeling is that the idea of pushing through all this Israeli-Egyptian relations stuff now is workable, doable, and shall continue.
It was time for a thaw a long time ago. I think we were being led in the direction that the US war against Iraq would lead to regional democracy (sort of like the 91 Gulf War). While we could see that was not going to happen, we did not see what was going to happen. And neither should of – observing societies should not include predicting events.
Authoritarianism is here to stay but in what form. Perhaps, the regional shifts in the region will be much more friendly to Israel than could have been forseen in April 2003. Egypt, in its diplomatic role, may just be an early expression of all this.