Economic losses in Lebanon

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung’s excellent Cairo correspondent Kristina Bergmann today writes on the economic losses to Lebanon as a result of the current war.

She refers to a report by Lebanon’s state-run Council for Development and Reconstruction (CDR) which argues that today’s losses are much more substantial then those the country suffered during its civil war as the Israeli air-force has systematically targeted Lebanon’s infrastructure, while the civil war was characterized by small-scale wars between different groups. CDR puts losses at $2.5bn, while damages to infrastructure have reached $785mn, according to CDR.

I’m also translating some paragraphs of Bergmann’s article:

When Siniora became Prime Minister in June 2005, public debt stood at $36bn and the trade deficit reached $2bn. Lebanon’s new government realized that reform was inevitable. A plan “revival of the economy� was drafted. It aimed at privatizing the state’s power station and its telecom, at raising taxes and at increasing control over funds – more precisely: the fight against corruption. With the beginning of the war, the plan was without further ado dubbed “plan for reconstruction�. Translated, this meant that corruption in trade in industry will flourish again, Lebanon’s former Minister of Finance Georges Corm recently said.

When in fall 2001 Arab capital feared being frozen in the US, Lebanon became the favourite place for Arab financiers. Now, however, Golf Arabs are withdrawing their money discreetly but very quickly. To where will they transfer their capital which has been increased by the explosion of oil prices? One destination are “stable� and economically open countries of the region such as Egypt, Morocco and Turkey, financial experts say. Is this arguably the reason, why those countries are reluctant in criticising Israel’s campaign?

The Muslim Brothers’ “support” for Lebanon

Brave talk from the head of the Muslim Brotherhood:

“I am ready to send immediately 10,000 mujahedeen to fight the Zionists alongside Hezbollah,” Mohammed Mehdi Akef told AFP.

He admitted though that the chances were more than slim that any volunteers from Egypt would ever reach Lebanon.

“There are enough people but you would need Arab regimes to authorise their deployment or at least turn a blind eye on their departure,” Akef said.

In other words, he really wants to help but feels he should ask permission first from the regime that currently incarcerates over 600 of its members. Hmmm. Mahdi Akef, like many supreme guides before him, just doesn’t seem that bright of a man. On the one hand he is happy to bash Arab regimes for their stance on Hizbullah and reap the rewards of public discontent, but on the other he’s not willing to really do anything serious about it. Maybe on some level, despite their easily-given pledges of support, Sunni Islamists aren’t happy about the Shia Islamists hogging the spotlight. Hizbullah, for better or for worse, doesn’t feel it needs to ask permission for its actions, does it?

Hizbullah’s strategy

The always excellent Anthony Shadid writes of Hizbullah’s doctrine and tactics:

Three weeks into its war with Israel, Hezbollah has retained its presence in southern Lebanon, often the sole authority in devastated towns along the Israeli border. The militia is elusive, with few logistics, little hierarchy and less visibility. Even residents often say they don’t know how the militiamen operate or are organized. Communication is by walkie-talkie, always in code, and sometimes messages are delivered by motorcycle. Weapons seem to be already in place across a terrain that fighters say they know intimately.

“On the ground, face to face, we’re better fighters than the Israelis,” said Hajj Abu Mohammed, a bearded, 44-year-old militiaman in the small village of Srifa, whose walkie-talkie crackled and cellphone rang with a Hezbollah anthem.

Israel has claimed to have destroyed Hezbollah’s infrastructure in a 22-day campaign that has driven hundreds of thousands of civilians from their homes and wrecked village after village along valleys sometimes charred by fires.

Hezbollah admits to having suffered losses, but in the fighting so far, it has demonstrated its detailed planning since the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000, ending an 18-year occupation. Fighters appear to exercise a great deal of autonomy, a flexibility evident along the region’s back roads: ammunition loaded in cars, trucks in camouflage, rocket launchers tucked in banana plantations.

Analysts say the militia could probably hold out a month without serious resupply. Fighters and supporters suggest that time is their advantage in a war that most suspect won’t have a conclusive end. In conversations in southern Lebanon, the militia’s supporters seem most adamant in trying to deprive either Israel or the United States of political gains from the military campaign.

“We’ll never submit to oppression, whatever the force applied, whatever the time it takes,” one of the group gathered in Jwayya said Tuesday. “You won’t find any difference between 21 days and 121 days. The difference is solely a matter of time.”

Just the read the whole thing. Meanwhile in Israel (whose overwhelming power may have made it delusional as well as utterly amoral):

Despite the number of attacks yesterday, the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, said Hizbullah had been disarmed “to a large degree”. “The infrastructure of Hizbullah has been entirely destroyed,” he said.

I think I know who to believe. Besides, Hizbullah fighters would probably continue fighting Israeli occupiers with their bare hands if they have to.

This is perverse

Sometimes the juxtaposition of headlines in a newsreader is just perverse. I found these next to each other:

Israeli Warplanes Pound Southern Beirut
Hezbollah Continues Rocket Fire Amid Ongoing Israeli Ground Offensive

KIRYAT SHEMONA, Israel, Aug. 3 — Israeli warplanes pounded the southern suburbs of Beirut Thursday morning for the first time in eight days, while Hezbollah militants and thousands of Israeli ground troops continued to engage in fierce ground fighting in Lebanese border towns and villages.

And:

Israelis work to save abandoned pets
By DELPHINE MATTHIEUSSENT, Associated Press Writer Thu Aug 3, 5:59 AM ET

MAALOT, Israel – A dozen youngsters carrying water and dog food ventured into the deserted streets of northern Israel, taking advantage of the nighttime lull, when Hezbollah usually stops firing rockets.

A government official says up to a few thousand pets may need to be fed or rescued, in part because hundreds of thousands of Israelis have fled northern Israel over the past three weeks.

HRW: Israel carried out war crimes in Lebanon

It may have taken them a while to say so (although there have been some really good statements since), but Human Rights Watch has come out with an unequivocal condemnation of Israeli strikes of civilian homes, saying they were deliberate and amounted to war crimes and calling for those responsible to be held accountable(bold mine):

(Beirut, August 3, 2006) – Israeli forces have systematically failed to distinguish between combatants and civilians in their military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Human Rights Watch said in report released today. The pattern of attacks in more than 20 cases investigated by Human Rights Watch researchers in Lebanon indicates that the failures cannot be dismissed as mere accidents and cannot be blamed on wrongful Hezbollah practices. In some cases, these attacks constitute war crimes.

One of the most important outcomes of this is that HRW follows through and not only condemns Israel for its war crimes, but also counts for it to be held accountable by international institutions and urges the US and UK, which supply weaponry used by Israel, to cease doing so. More on the report and its conclusions below.

Continue reading HRW: Israel carried out war crimes in Lebanon

As many as it takes

I realize that I’ve now uploaded to Flickr some 400 pictures of the attack on Lebanon. At this point, one might simply go numb. After all, the scenes are repetitive: destroyed buildings, mangled bodies, crying children, shell-shocked faces of the wounded, resigned looks of refugees. But I always take time to look at each picture and find out who it is, what might have happened. So we won’t forget. As Hanady (who sends the pics from Beirut) says:

Yes, more pictures. loads of pictures. Hundreds of pictures . As many pictures as people get killed. As many pictures as the number of people who flee their homes, become refugees. As many pictures as there are people who carry their children and walk , under the sun , on the rubbles , under their air raids , their shells, their bombs, their bullets, their prayers for more blood. As many pictuers as it will take, no to stop any of this , not to give children their lifes back , not to give those people their homes back , not to stop others , all poor who never lost their DIGNITY, from turning into beggars in the streets of Beirut. Just as many as it takes to undermine any attempts to try and convince any of us this should be forgotten, that this should be forgiven. Any attempts to convince anybody that Israel is a democracy , that Israel deserves any better than what it has to offer.

The latest pics are in this set.

Ayta Shaab Afp
An Elderly Villager Is Helped By A Relative As They Make Their Way To Safer Ground After Spending More Than A Week In A Shelter At The Southern Village Of Aitaroun Ap

Latest developments

From Reuters:

Latest developments in the Middle East

Reuters 01.08.06 | 19h16

Aug 1 (Reuters) – Here are developments on the 21st day of the Middle East crisis.

* Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says he sees the beginning of a process that would lead to a cease-fire in Lebanon. He also says Hizbollah guerrillas could never threaten the Jewish state again.

* Israeli troops cross into new area of south Lebanon and pound towns and villages in two other areas

* Troops meet fierce resistance from Hizbollah guerrillas. Al Arabiya TV says three Israeli soldiers killed.

* EU calls for immediate halt to hostilities to be followed by a sustainable cease-fire, watering down demands for immediate cease-fire at insistence of Britain and other U.S. allies.

Continue reading Latest developments

No innocents in Qana, say rabbis

I await the worldwide indignation at this form of religious barbarism with trepidation:

Yesha Rabbinical Council: During time of war, enemy has no innocents

The Yesha Rabbinical Council announced in response to an IDF attack in Kfar Qanna that “according to Jewish law, during a time of battle and war, there is no such term as ‘innocents’ of the enemy.”

All of the discussions on Christian morality are weakening the spirit of the army and the nation and are costing us in the blood of our soldiers and civilians,” the statement said.

Maybe they can have a Reformation…