Discontented Egyptians – what consequence?

A summer of discontents | Economist.com: For the last year or so it’s been social unrest after social unrest, and this story covers the situation well. What’s surprising (or perhaps not) is that despite the high prices, poor services, widespread discontent, not only is there little sign of any meaningful political change (aside from those rumors of a cabinet shuffle) but that Egypt’s political future is still as hazy as ever. Also read Baheyya on this – several recent posts touch on this point, in which she takes a slow gradual view of things.

Also, kudos to The Economist again last week for being the only major Western publication (as far as I saw) to note, when covering the recent US arms-deal funding bonanza, that the increase in military aid being given to Israel would be subject to negotiation with Egypt since the ratio of Egyptian to Israeli military aid is supposed to be set in the Camp David agreement (this of course excludes other forms of aid to Israel, such as loan guarantees.)

The markets

Is it just me or do banks, hedge funds and other financial companies always cry out against government intervention, except when they need a bail-out or central banks to intervene in the markets to restore stability after their irresponsible unfettered speculation blows up in their face? Just asking.

Lebanon’s Daily Star, USAID, and Solidere

There’s been an interesting scandal brewing in the last few days about Lebanon Examiner, a section of the Beirut Daily Star sponsored by USAID to carry out investigative journalism. A piece that recently came out about Solidere — surely the first and foremost investigative business journalism story to do in Lebanon — apparently pissed off the paper’s USAID backers and their friends in government. Solidere, the Downtown Beirut real estate rehabilitation project, was THE post-civil war reconstruction initiative of the 1990s. It was an odd creature, partly government-backed and partly owned by the late Rafiq al-Hariri. Some of its shares also belonged to the inhabitants of Downtown Beirut, and it was traded on the Beirut stockmarket. It has always been controversial, for architectural/aesthetic reasons as well as for financial and political ones, especially considering the rather murky share splits and ways the company was managed. In other words, it is a perfect topic for an investigative newspaper story, and the one written a few days ago Lysandra Ohrstrom begins the scratch the surface of what may be a key aspect of 1990s Lebanese politics by focusing on a recent lawsuit:

On May 29, a committee of 500-dogged, disenfranchised former downtown property owners filed a suit at the Majlis al-Shura against a two-month old ministerial decree approving Solidere’s decision to create an international branch in Dubai. The case is the latest in a long line of lawsuits against Solidere over the past 12 years that raises questions about the company’s dubious legal foundations and its checkered past. Solidere’s operations range from the “immoral to the unconstitutional,” according to its most vocal critics, and all were perpetrated under the cover of the Lebanese state in the name of “national interest.”

Like its predecessors, the current case may never receive a ruling, but the Downtown Rights Holders Committee is optimistic that with the government led by staunch-Solidere ally Premier Fouad Siniora in danger of collapse, and the possibility of a power sharing agreement increasingly imminent, they may be able to hem in Solidere’s “unlawful expansion” – 37 percent of which was financed with local capital – so company profits are used to complete outstanding rehabilitation commitments in BCD, and not to finance speculative ventures in countries outside the state’s control.

“We don’t like this move because [Solidere] is still supposed to be a public purpose company whose main mission is development, whose mission is to serve downtown property owners by finishing project quickly and distributing [dividends] to us so we can buy back our property in downtown. We don’t want Solidere to go do other projects when they are barely 25 percent done in Lebanon.” explained Constantine Karam, who filed the petition on behalf of the rights holders committee.

That sounds straightforward enough. But successive leaks to the Angry Arab allege that USAID and the Siniora government are angry about the story, and trying to reign in the Daily Star:

My highly reliable (and well-placed) sources in Beirut are telling me that there were very strong reactions against the article by the Sanyurah government and its allies in the US embassy. The strongest reaction came from the USAID which funds the investigative page through an “accountability and transparency” grant. Don’t you like how the US defines “accountability and transparency”? The person who secured the USAID grant wrote that “the political agenda of the donors is not to undermine the fuoad Siniora government”. Long live transparency, accountability, and democracy. The person* complained for the second time that the examiner has become a “hizbollah rag”-the first was after Jim Quilty wrote a story on the reconstruction of bint jbeil, the person said donors were “bored” with the reconstruction topic. Long live the donors. Apparently the donors received phone calls from march 14 people all day yesterday, accusing the staff of the Daily Star of having timed the release of the story to the elections to prop up the opposition. The staff of the paper were ordered to print a full rebuttle. They “ordered” them to cover the following topics in the following three issues:
1) Municipal governmence at the Interior Ministry–they included four sources for reporters to interview who surely would allow for a “balanced” article. 2) The Finance Ministry’s ease of doing business reforms. 3) The five year industrial program drafted by the Ministry of Industry under Pierre Gemayel. 4) Sami Hadad’s leadership at the economy ministry. One editor from the daily star is resigning and telling them to find someone else who does not mind being subject to editorial oversight from the US government.

So not only do they want a rebuttal but also to place their own story with positive spin for the government… More allegations of US embassy micro-management of the Daily Star here.

Now, this post is not meant to be about taking sides in the Lebanese political deadlock. It’s not like al-Manar is a bastion of independent journalism, or that many Lebanese papers don’t slavishly follow the party line of whoever is paying this month. Even well-regarded papers such as as-Safir and al-Akhbar in Lebanon are frequently accused of being bought one way or another, and there sure seems to be a lot of esteem for the Saudi royal family in pretty much every Arab newspaper. However, there is something particularly cynical about using a grant to develop investigative journalism and micro-manage a paper’s coverage. At least Rafiq Hariri would write the cheques and send them personally (or simply send them without even a quid-pro-quo, hoping to curry favor. It often worked). This particularly the case because a USAID program to boost serious investigative journalism in the Arab world is a great idea considering the general lack of such type of stories and one that should be carried out seriously. As someone who has worked in small Arab world publications, I find it particularly offensive and even frankly dangerous. The Daily Star’s reporting has never been known for its frank coverage of Lebanese politics, particularly during the civil war. (Its editorial pages, edited by the quite forthrightly pro-March 14 Michael Young, are a different thing and indeed the best thing about the paper even if you might not agree with Young.) But political caution is a different thing than being told what to do by a foreign embassy’s staffers. I hope the Daily Star does not rebut the story and keeps on doing this kind of work.

Shehata & Stacher: Boxing in the Brothers

Our friends Samer Shehata and Joshua Stacher have a new piece on the Muslim Brotherhood’s relationship with the Egyptian regime at MERIP. It’s a thorough overview of the last two years of mounting repression against the MB, tracking down the post-parliamentary election crackdown, the Fall 2006 labor and student election crackdown, the “Ikhwan Militia” scandal, the arrest of senior leaders such as Khairat al-Shatir, the constitutional changes, and more. A kind of Chatham House version for Islamist politics in 2006-2007, if you will. Their conclusion of where this is heading:

The Mubarak regime is intent upon remaking the rules governing the Brotherhood’s participation in formal politics. Just as the 2005 parliamentary elections placed the Brotherhood on the national stage, the regime’s current moves aim to put the Brothers back in their box. If the reinstatement of military trials and seizure of assets were warnings of worse to come, the Brothers appear to have gotten the message. As Muhammad al-Baltagi notes, “They are saying, ‘If you back down from your strong political participation, then it’s over. If you persist, then this will persist.’” In this sense, the Brotherhood is a victim of its own success — the unexpected breakthrough in the 2005 parliamentary elections and subsequent prominence in Egyptian public life has led the regime to step up its harassment.

. . .

Intensified repression notwithstanding, the Muslim Brotherhood is unlikely to exit Egyptian political life. Indeed, the very fact that the group fielded 19 candidates in the June elections for the upper house of Parliament indicates that the organization will continue its participation in formal politics. The group is adjusting to a new reality, however. As Habib stated in April, “We will continue to work according to our agenda but the tactics will be different…. The repression is as strong and as annoying as in the 1960s and the 1990s but now they [the regime] are much smarter and plan better. They know better where to hit us.”

Among these smarter regime sanctions are the severe financial measures aimed at the organization’s ability to provide social services, which many believe to be the backbone of the Brotherhood’s popular support. Seizing the assets of major financiers such as Khayrat al-Shatir might discourage others from funding the organization. The measures could also have been intended to drain the Brotherhood’s campaign coffers before the June elections (in addition to blackening the group’s image). Yet the impoundment of individual members’ accounts and the effort to normalize the use of military courts bespeak a more enduring strategy of containment.

Conspiracy theory du jour

Bizarre little story in today’s Le Monde: last Friday 12 swimmers drowned on a beach in northern Algeria after a giant wave suddenly appeared on a beach near Mostaganem, in Western Algeria. No one knows what caused the wave, which only appeared at that particular beach and was not part of a larger tsunami or other natural event. One theory advanced by a astronomer/planetologist is that the wave was the result of a scientific experiment conducted by a northern Mediterranean country (Spain, France or Italy), probably involving conventional weapons of some sort. The story in full:

La protection civile algérienne a annoncé, mercredi 8 août, la mort de douze baigneurs emportés par une vague géante sur une plage de Mostaganem, dans l’ouest algérien, vendredi. L’origine de la vague est inconnue et nourrit les débats des scientifiques et de la population locale.

L’hypothèse d’un essai scientifique en Méditerranée effectué par des pays de l’autre rive, comme l’Espagne, l’Italie ou la France est avancée. “On peut supposer qu’il s’agit d’une expérience scientifique d’armes conventionnelles”, explique le professeur Loth Bonatiro, spécialiste d’astronomie et de planétologie au Centre algérien de recherche en astronomie, astrophysique et géophysique (Craag), cité dans les colonnes du quotidien algérien L’Expression.

L’hypothèse d’un mini-tsunami avancée par les habitants semblait peu plausible, dans la mesure où la vague n’a touché qu’une seule plage, celle dite du Petit-Port.

Une secousse sismique d’une magnitude de 4,6 sur l’échelle ouverte de Richter avait été enregistrée vendredi à 21 h 08 en plein milieu du bassin méditerranéen par le centre de Strasbourg, mais pas par le Craag, qui évoque un possible problème technique.

Weird. Will feed the conspiracy theories of already paranoid Algerians for weeks, I’m sure.

Report: Syria to ban comments on websites, increase web censorship

See SyriaComment. It’s becoming clearly obvious in every country whose news I follow that blogs and other websites are playing a crucial role as forum for debates and news-reporting where traditional publications face censorship. With the web, however, while governments can make things more difficult for users there are always ways to get around barriers.

Iran paper closed for interviewing gay poet

Reformist paper closed by Iran for second time:

Authorities in Iran closed down the country’s leading reformist newspaper yesterday in the latest stage of an offensive against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s opponents in the media.

Shargh, which has been critical of Mr Ahmadinejad, was ordered to shut after running an interview with an anti-regime poet last Saturday. The poet, Saghi Qahraman, has been accused by the country’s Islamic rulers of promoting homosexuality.

The newspaper unsuccessfully attempted to placate official anger by publishing a front-page apology today after withdrawing the article from its website.

Absurd. Who will rid us of these turbulent priests? (No, W., not you please.)