Tag: syria

Skeptic in Damascus

Check out Elijah’s post from Damascus. I love Damascus, having lived there in the mid-1990s, and he gets a lot of the things about it right. Even if Syria is largely depressing, it’s a fantastic country and people. And even better than Damascus is Aleppo. Both cities have a “den of spies” 1950s feel to them, which may or may not be because up to a quarter of the population informs the mukhabarat…

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See the full set of Damascus pics.

PINR on Gemayel

I’ve been getting these PINR reports for over a year but could never figure out who they (PINR) were exactly – they never replied to my emails. Still, they often have interesting stuff, as in their take on the Gemayel assassination.

Intelligence Brief: Pierre Gemayel Assassinated in Lebanon
Drafted By:
http://www.pinr.com

On November 21, Pierre Gemayel, a prominent Christian Maronite politician, was assassinated in the Christian Beirut suburb of Jdeideh. The assassination adds a new, powerful element of instability to an already fragmented political scene characterized by increasing tension between the different political, ethnic and confessional factions in Lebanon.

Several important members of the anti-Syrian coalition, such as Sunni leader Saad Hariri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, accuse Damascus of ordering the assassination. They accuse the Syrian leadership of seeking renewed influence in Lebanon, and they consider the killing an attempt to further weaken the pro-Western Lebanese government led by Prime Minister Fuad Siniora. Syria, however, denies any involvement in the murder.

The assassination of Gemayel occurred the same day that Syria took an important foreign policy step by restoring its diplomatic relations with Iraq after 25 years. This decision was a breakthrough for Damascus’ diplomatic attitude because such a step displayed Syria’s will to play a new role in Iraq, which, for Washington, is a critical concern.
Continue reading PINR on Gemayel

Syria: The wannabe China of the Middle East?

There are few articles in the Western mainstream press on single Middle Eastern economies, and this one by Damascus-based freelancer Gabriella Keller on the Syrian economy for the online edition of Der Spiegel is quite well researched and sharp. She argues that while the political leadership has realized the need to open up the economy, to substitute domestic energy sources and to build up a competitive private sector, the lower levels of the administration as well as certain clans are opposing any change.

Very much what can be observed in other Middle Eastern countries in their economic transition.

Some excerpts (own rough translation):

“At the highest level, we received a lot of support�, says Hanna [an investor that started a local production of La Vache qui rit]. “But the authorities on the lower levels have not yet made that about-turn. When we needed permissions, we had to get signatures at some 20 places. So everything took a lot of time and efforts.�

Continue reading Syria: The wannabe China of the Middle East?

The Syrian opposition and Washington

Credit where credit is due: the generally anti-Arab, uber-neocon New York Sun does a decent job of keeping track of Arab opposition movements and their interaction with Washington. Here it writes about a Syrian opposition group — a rather loose group that includes Islamists — that is about to open a formal Washington office:

The National Salvation Front also has been wary of working with the Americans. But in the past two months, the leader of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Ali Sadreddine Bayanouni, has taken a series of steps aimed at casting himself in a more moderate light. In August, Mr. Bayanouni told Al-Jazeera that he would be open to negotiations with Israel over the return of the Golan Heights. Mr. Dairi said yesterday that Mr. Bayanouni would even be open to meeting with American officials.

“Mr. Bayanouni would not have a problem meeting with Americans. If he is invited, he will not refuse the invitation. He has told this to me personally, and I believe him,” Mr. Dairi said.

Over the last six months, the Bush administration has expressed cautious interest in a coalition that includes the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, in part because of its frustration with the Assad regime, which the Brotherhood opposes. In March, for example, the assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs, David Welch, noted that the State Department was interested in what the Front had to say. Those remarks came a few weeks after a summit between a former Syrian vice president who defected in 2005, Abdul Halim Khaddam, and Mr. Bayanouni, who agreed to work together toward the ouster of the Assad regime.

This new group is apparently anchored by old regime stalwarts such as Khaddam (remember his odd pan-Arab media appearance and then, when the Saudis got tired of promoting him, disappearance) and old opposition stalwarts from the local Muslim Brotherhood. The article mentions that the Reform Party of Syria, the more “liberal” Chalabi-like opposition movement, is not happy about the new office opening. Perhaps the lesson learned here from the administration, as it reportedly considers imposing a “strongman” on Iraq, is that you’re better off going with the strongmen in the first place rather than take a chance with “liberals” in the Chalabist mold. Or quite simply, that taking people with no support base in the country, no matter how impeccable their credentials might seem, is not a solution that’s going to work.

… and welcome to Canada

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A man got beaten into a false confession. The internal security agency lied to the government and to the public to cover up their brutality and incompetence. The government lied to the public to cover up their culpability. When the man complained, government officials told lies to the press in an attempt to discredit him.

Sure sounds familiar, but the country could come as a surprise: Canada.

Maher Arar was picked up by US officials acting on intelligence ineptly gathered by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (yep, the guys in the little red uniforms) while transiting the US on a Canadian passport and exported to Damascus for interrogation where (surprise!) he was tortured. After he returned to Canada and complained, as yet unnamed “government officials� started a campaign to smear him in the national press.

Here, however, the parallels to countries closer to the home come to an end. See, we know all this because an independent commission was set up under a judge—a judge who was going to get his full salary whether or not he came up with the real facts of the matter—and that commission was able to impel the testimony of a range of key players and make most of its findings known.

It’s unpleasant to be reminded that internal security operatives are a breed that transcends cultural and national identity, but here’s the silver lining: a willful, independent judiciary can be an effective counterweight. Something to remember next time there’s a demo outside the Judges’ Club.

The world’s biggest Quran

Interesting story from Syria in the WSJ (look out for a rash of Syria stories as the international press corps exist Lebanon):

DAMASCUS, Syria — During prayers in his neighborhood mosque, Moktaz Obeyeed used to elbow his way through the big, crowded hall to pick up a small copy of the Quran. How great would it be, he thought one day, if you could just lift your eyes and read the holy book from anywhere in the mosque, without bothering other worshippers? He had a vision of giant pages of the Quran covering the walls.

Since that day nearly 10 years ago, Mr. Obeyeed says he has sunk all his savings into bringing his dream of a huge Quran to life. He’s deferred buying a new house despite his wife’s pleas, and tapped an international network of 58 calligraphers to handwrite 120 pages of the holy book — each page measuring six-feet, eight inches high and three-feet, four inches wide.

The size would make it among the world’s largest Qurans. But what really sets it apart is the sheer number of artists involved. Mr. Obeyeed’s calligraphers are scattered across 17 countries, including all of the Middle East’s hot spots: Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories. That has complicated an already difficult undertaking; a Lebanese calligrapher, for instance, recently couldn’t be reached for 10 days, prompting a frantic search.

Is Syria stronger?

I generally find Josh Landis too “bullish” on Syria and its regime, but it’s interesting to read why he thinks the Lebanon war has made Syria stronger, something I generally agree with as long as the war does not expand.

The really worrying thing about Syria is that it really is a regime that is fundamentally incapable of providing a better life for its citizens because of the limited nature of natural power base and the rampant corruption in its economy (never mind democratic rights). I think the ongoing winter that followed the Damascus Spring has shown there is little chance that the regime will gradually open up. So where does that leave Syria? With a third generation of Assads? It’s a sad situation: probably the only thing that can save Syria is an end to its conflict with Israel (i.e. the return of the Golan Heights.)

Also, this week’s roundtable discussion at Creative Syria: What should the United States and the other relevant regional powers do to stop the bloodshed in Lebanon?

Norton on the war

Forget the talking heads on television going on about Syria and Iran at lengths, and listen instead to the real experts, such as Augustus Richard Norton. Harpers has an excellent interview with him in he makes excellent points, which I agree entirely with:

  • Iran didn’t “commission” the attack as some would have you believed. It is a Hizbullah initiative that “was tactically very smart, but strategically they were taking a real gamble.” Precisely my original views and the reason for my stupefaction (and anger) when Hizbullah carried out the attacks.
  • Olmert and his pals are not over-reacting because they’re not historic military officers in Israel. There is a military / strategic logic to the Israeli onslaught that goes beyond politics and whose aim is total dominance of its “near-abroad” (Norton says it has to do with Iran.) I can’t believe how often this one is repeated, apparently to excuse Israel’s actions (the perverse logic goes something like this: “Israel is a democracy, so its leaders have be politically savvy, so they can’t afford not to look tough, so they have to carry out war crimes, etc. Utter nonsense.)
  • The Israeli attack is completely disproportionate and is a form of collective punishment against civilians. I thought this was interesting as Norton is a Vietnam vet:

I’ve been talking to people in Lebanon and it appears that Israel has established a killing box in south Lebanon, what the U.S. called a “free fire zone” in Vietnam. You establish a zone, which you dominate from the air, and force out civilians—there are already hundreds of thousands of Lebanese who have been displaced. Then you presume anything still moving in that zone is the enemy. This is a recipe for lots of hapless civilians dying, as happened a few days ago when 16 southern Lebanese villagers were killed in automobiles while adhering to Israel’s order to flee their homes.

  • Hizbullah will emerge from this with its stature diminished. I’ve wondered about this, and a lot of pundits are saying that Hizbullah will emerge stronger. For my part I don’t see a solution to this where Hizbullah does not come out weaker, and the Lebanese will (rightly) want to have more say over its actions in the future. One should not confuse support for resistance with support for Hizbullah’s political leadership and continued “untouchable” status in Lebanon. Norton says:

Totally disarming Hezbollah is a fool’s errand. It’s too easy to hide weapons and there’s too great an incentive to keep them. Hezbollah is facing an interesting dilemma. The more it uses the rockets the more it creates a rationale to keep the time period open. Inside Lebanon there is going to be a readjustment of politics. Hezbollah will be diminished in stature, it won’t be able to maintain its privileged position after what has happened.

  • Outcome for Israel and the US will be negative. Two key quotes:

Israel has made a profound mistake.

I’ve been studying American foreign policy in the Middle East for 34 years and I can’t recall any U.S. president who has subordinated American interests to Israeli interests like this one. The administration is being naïve about how this is going to reverberate elsewhere, in places like Iraq.

There going to be hell to pay for this in the long run. I can already imagine Al Qaeda recruiters are working non-stop.

What’s missing from the interview, though, is discussion of Syria. I’ve commented on other blogs about this, so here are my two cents: Syria’s weak domestic position (created by Israeli/French/US pressure and its own idiocy and assassinations) makes it actually more difficult to really push for regime change there, as some are advocating. The weaker the Bashar Al Assad regime is, the more careful Israel and the US will be. The majority opinion in the leadership of both countries now is that the regime’s fall would either lead to Iraq-like chaos (which would compound Iraq’s own problems and naturally affect Lebanon) to relative stability under a new Islamist regime. I think enough Islamists have come to power recently for the taste of everybody in the region right now. So the Syrian regime is reinforced and can be more intransigeant in the current situation, since it is not paying much of a price and most probably won’t be challenged.

The caveat is, of course, that the advocates of Syrian regime change will win the argument over Syria and change everybody’s mind (or something will happen to make people change their mind.) In that case, don’t plan a trip to the Levant for the next 10-20 years.