Egyptian rumor of the week

Egypt just changed its rule banning the sale and use of GPS devices, which had caused among other things the iPhone to be crippled when bought inside the country. The rumored reason for the change: Ahmed Ezz, Gamal Mubarak’s right-hand man, imported a luxury vehicle equipped with GPS that customs did not want to release. So he asked his buddy Gamal to change the regulations. I don’t think this has any basis in reality, but it shows the kind of thinking around here when this is how some people think such policies (made essentially for military or commercial reasons) are decided. Think about it: if Ahmed Ezz wanted to, he could have just gotten his car in and used the GPS illegally, as many people already do.

Mega-Shia conspiracy

It’s been reported today that a group of Egyptians, Israeli Arabs, Palestinians, and Lebanese have arrested in Egypt for belonging to a smuggling ring to Gaza, while Israel alleges they could be a threat to Israeli vacationers in Sinai. So this story involves Hamas, Hizbullah, Iran vs. Israel and Egypt, as well as attempts to spread Shiism in Egypt.

Needless to say, I am skeptical.

Report: Egypt arrests 7 Israeli Arabs for spying for Hamas, Hezbollah

Egypt arrests over 40 suspected smugglers to Gaza

Israel says tourists in Sinai are attack targets

Pro-Hezbollah Group Arrested In Egypt

Update: Here’s Reuters’ story: Egypt holds men on suspicion of aiding Hamas-lawyer

New April 09 Arab Reform Bulletin

Khaled Hroub on Pressures on Hamas in Reconciliation Talks

The 2007 Hamas takeover of Gaza affected Egypt more than any other country. While there is a possibility that Americans or Europeans would tolerate a Palestinian consensus including loosely-worded formulas that allow Hamas to participate, it is the Egyptians who are taking a hard-line approach and pressing Hamas into an unequivocal stance. Egypt wants to minimize the chances of Hamas winning future Palestinian elections. Egypt’s delicate domestic situation cannot withstand the emergence of a successful or partly successful Muslim Brotherhood-inspired experiment anywhere in the Arab world, and certainly not on its very doorstep. The situation is all the more sensitive because Hamas is confronting the Israeli occupation, deeply unpopular with most Egyptians, which provides a tool for Egyptian Islamists to use in mobilizing the street against the government. But Cairo is aware that Hamas’ position is awkward and its choices are limited, especially with escalating resentment against some of Hamas’ policies within Gaza before, during, and after the recent war, which is pushing Hamas to adopt a more flexible attitude.

Iman Baibars on Ramifications of Women’s Rights Initiatives:

While the NDP appears serious about increasing the number of women in parliament, it is not clear yet exactly which seats will be designated for women or how they will be selected. Will it be, for example, by means of an individual candidacy system, in which two women from each governorate are nominated (one a professional and another a laborer), a party list system, or some combination of the two? The quota is thus part of a larger discussion of overall reform of the oft-revised Egyptian electoral system. But in any case, it seems likely that a quota for women will be in place in time for the 2010 parliamentary elections. The question is no longer whether more women will enter parliament, but rather how this will be accomplished.

Also:

Intissar Fakir Western Sahara and Regional Security (IMHO overstates the security issues in the Sahel region from a US perspective, ignores political expediency of creating a “jihadist situation” in that sub-region for both local and external powers.)

Josh Landis on The Nexus of Economy, Diplomacy, and Reform (I like Landis but fear he’s rather too sanguine about this: “President Assad has also promised to put political liberalization back on his agenda because he no longer believes Western powers seek to destabilize Syria.” Forget liberalization, Assad will never do it!)

Obama’s Ankara speech

There were two passages in Obama’s speech in Ankara, which I suppose is his much-touted address to the Muslim world, that struck me. The first moved away from the idea that engagement with the Muslim world is a policy solely based on the war on terror and the problem of Islamic fundamentalism. This is a great step, and most of the advocates of public diplomacy in the last few years were deeply wrong in framing the need for outreach in the context of al-Qaeda. The subtext to that idea was, essentially, a conflation of al-Qaeda and Islam that was deeply damaging to America’s image in the Muslim world — and it did not help that President Bush pathetically tried to show his understanding of Islam by holding iftars and other pageants. Here it is:

But I also want to be clear that America’s relationship with the Muslim work cannot and will not be based on opposition to al Qaeda. Far from it. We seek broad engagement based upon mutual interests and mutual respect. We will listen carefully, bridge misunderstanding, and seek common ground. We will be respectful, even when we do not agree. And we will convey our deep appreciation for the Islamic faith, which has done so much over so many centuries to shape the world for the better – including my own country. The United States has been enriched by Muslim Americans. Many other Americans have Muslims in their family, or have lived in a Muslim-majority country – I know, because I am one of them.

Above all, we will demonstrate through actions our commitment to a better future. We want to help more children get the education that they need to succeed. We want to promote health care in places where people are vulnerable. We want to expand the trade and investment that can bring prosperity for all people. In the months ahead, I will present specific programs to advance these goals. Our focus will be on what we can do, in partnership with people across the Muslim world, to advance our common hopes, and our common dreams. And when people look back on this time, let it be said of America that we extended the hand of friendship.

The great thing about this approach is that it says to Muslim countries, and societies, that while America has a problem with al-Qaeda it will not deal with Muslims through that problem alone, but in a multilateral fashion that addresses the “normal” global problems we all face: climate change, trade policy, diplomacy, conflict resolution, etc. The focus on education (in a dire state in much of the Arab world at least) encapsulates the universalism of these common concerns. Basically, the difference between Bush and Obama’s approach is a switch from a focus on exceptionalism (Muslim societies as unusually problematic) to one of universalism (all countries and societies face common challenges far beyond the ones that have to do with religion and its excesses.)

The second part is linked to Obama’s choice of Turkey, a Muslim majority country with deeply secular values despite the fact that its current government is Islamist, as the venue for the speech. In many respects it’s an odd choice, considering that for a long time Turkey wore many different hats than “large Muslim country” in US policy circles: NATO partner, prospective EU member, Eastern Mediterranean economic powerhouse, energy crossroad, gateway to Central Asia, etc. I interpret it in the fact that aside from India and possibly Indonesia, no country with a large population has the type of government that could be seen as progressive, at least partly committed to democracy and that can be seen as successful in terms of socio-economic development. Hence the focus on the very particular Turkish heritage of Attaturkism, which for all its faults has helped create a very dynamic, relatively open society in Turkey:

This morning I had the privilege of visiting the tomb of the great founder of your Republic. I was deeply impressed by this beautiful memorial to a man who did so much to shape the course of history. But it is also clear that the greatest monument to Ataturk’s life is not something that can be cast in stone and marble. His greatest legacy is Turkey’s strong and secular democracy, and that is the work that this assembly carries on today.

This future was not easily assured. At the end of World War I, Turkey could have succumbed to the foreign powers that were trying to claim its territory, or sought to restore an ancient empire. But Turkey chose a different future. You freed yourself from foreign control. And you founded a Republic that commands the respect of the United States and the wider world.

There is a simple truth to this story: Turkey’s democracy is your own achievement. It was not forced upon you by any outside power, nor did it come without struggle and sacrifice. Like any democracy, Turkey draws strength from both the successes of the past, and from the efforts of each generation of Turks that makes new progress for your people.

Not only does Obama here recognize the heroic resistance of Turkish nationalists against efforts by Europeans to carve out their country after World War I, but explicitly rejects the idea of external imposition of democracy (a landmark Bush administration idea) and puts the focus on domestic forces. Beyond this, he also puts the emphasis on Turkey’s achievement as a a secular country whose ruling party, while notionally Islamist, accepts and has thrived within a secular framework. I am probably reading too much into this, but I like to see in it an argument for the secular framework as, in recent history at least, a great model for development, especially compared to the outright Islamist models of Iran, Saudi Arabia or Sudan that have been respectively civic, moral or social failures — or indeed the hybrid pseudo-secular experiments of Egypt, Syria, Morocco, Algeria and most other Arab states.

The problem here is that while it’s an approach that greatly appeals to me ideologically (I believe that the secular model is best), I am not sure it is practical anymore. The contemporary dominance of Islamist ideology, and its recuperation by the power elites of Arab countries even when they claim to cherish secular values, has gone too far. The opportunity that Turkey grabbed (not to disregard Attaturkism’s cultish tendencies and human rights abuses) has passed the Arab world by, and we are left dealing with a bizarre mishmash of the worse that Islamism, socialism, capitalism and nationalism have to offer: intolerance, inefficiency, cronyism and empty jingoism. The trick is now to find the best of those same ideologies, and in this case Islam’s ideal of social justice does have something valuable to offer.

The question for Obama will be whether, in going beyond the idea of democracy promotion that we know is difficult to practice when facing deeply-entrenced anti-democratic forces (first and foremost the regimes in place), he will abandon it altogether. For me the first test of this would be to see him back the formation of a representative national unity government in Palestine that includes legitimately elected Hamas, making new elections possible in which, this time, I hope the United States won’t waste their money interfering in on Fatah’s side.

The April 6 strike as seen by Egyptian newspapers

The headlines in today’s Egyptian dailies:

The state press

– Al-Ahram (loyal and sycophantic): As per Mubarak’s instructions, LE10bn will be earmarked for social welfare and job creation.

– Al-Akhbar (dour and old-fashioned): “Call for strike: no room for chaos and production stoppage.”

– Al-Gomhouriya (gloating): “Egypt does not acknowledge chaos.”

– Rose al-Youssef (triumphant): “New defeats for the supporters of the strike.”

The mainstream independent press

– Al-Masri al-Youm (brutally honest): A failed strike.

– Al-Shorouq al-Gedid (poetic): 6 April: calm streets and timid protests.

– Nahdet Misr (laconic): A strike without strikers.

The opposition-independent press

– Al-Badil (embarrassed): Weak participation in strike.

– Al-Dostour (oblivious): 6 April: small protests

The real big story of the day, though, are allegations by Masri al-Youm editor Magdi Gallad that Ayman Nour’s wife and stalwart supporter, Gamila Ismail (well-known in Egypt as a former television presenter and later an advocate for her husband) that Gamila sent him a SMS saying she was divorcing Ayman. Ayman Nour then reportedly demanded that Gallad withdraw the edition of the paper where the information was published (with promises of a follow-up), which Gallad refused while lambasting Nour for attacking freedom of the press on public figures when Nour himself wants more transparency on public officials. It’s not clear whether the news regarding the divorce has been confirmed yet, and Gamila has reportedly disappeared.

April 6 = April Fools

The short story: what had been talked about nonstop for the past month as a “day of anger” with national outbreaks of protests all over the place completely fizzled out with a pathetic whimper. About 40 people were arrested, mostly in Kafr al-Sheikh, and security presence was slightly more massive than usual. Clearly Gaza is a vastly more important issue than this ill-defined “day of anger”, and the very real, very serious anti-Mubarak movement in Egypt should dissociate itself from the “Shabab 6 April” if it wants to get anywhere. If they keep doing this, I predict a surge in the number of new applicants to join the NDP. Egypt’s activists and opposition politicians are discrediting themselves if they make a big deal about a day of protests that most don’t even participate in – and no, joining a Facebook group does not count.

The same with more curse words at Sandmonkey. Hossam will have more later but has already posted along the same lines. Those two agreeing on anything political is a small miracle, and it happened today.